In January, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2024 should total 303.4 million tonnes, 3.8% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes) with a reduction of 12.0 million tonnes; and 1.0% below that reported in December, with a decrease of 3.1 million tonnes.

The area to be harvested is 77.6 million hectares, a drop of 0.3% compared to the area harvested in 2023, with a decline of 222.6 thousand hectares, and an increase of 0.2% (189,770 hectares) in relation to December .

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products, together represent 91.8% of the estimated production and account for 86.9% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2023, there were increases of 8.5% in the area to be harvested for upland cottonseed, 4.3% for paddy rice, 3.5% for beans, 0.6% for wheat and 1.3% in soybeans, with declines of 4.5% in the corn area (a drop of 7.1% in 1st corn crop and 3.7% in 2nd corn crop) and 5.5% % in sorghum.

In relation to production, there were increases of 5.8% for upland cottonseed, 1.1% for rice, 4.5% for beans and 33.0% for wheat, and decreases of 1.0% for soybeans, 14.0% for sorghum and 10.2% for corn (reductions of 6.7% in 1st corn crop and 11.1% in 2nd corn crop).

The January estimate for soybeans was 150.4 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 117.7 million tonnes (25.9 million tonnes of corn 1st crop and 91.8 million tonnes of corn 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.4 million tonnes; that of wheat at 10.3 million tonnes; that of upland cottonseed at 8.2 million tonnes; and sorghum, at 3.7 million tonnes.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed a positive annual change for two Major Regions: the South (12.5%) and the North (0.4%), and a negative annual change for the others: the Central-West (-11.6%), Southeast (-5.7%), and Northeast (-5.8%). As for the monthly change, the North region showed growth (3.4%); stability in the Southeast (0.0%), while the others showed declines: Northeast (-1.6%), South (-2.6%) and Central-West (-0.6%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 27.6%, followed by Paraná (14.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%), Goiás (10.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.8%), and Minas Gerais (5.9%), which, together, represented 79.8% of the total. Regarding the participation of Brazilian regions, there is the following distribution: Central-West (46.9%), South (29.6%), Southeast (9.5%), Northeast (8.4%) and North (5.6%).

Highlights in the January 2024 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to December, there were increases in production estimates for upland cottonseed (9.4% or 703,352 t), beans 2nd crop (2.1% or 27,454 t), corn 2nd crop (1.9% or 1,706,928 t), canephora coffee (0.5% or 5,814 t), beans 3rd crops(0.4% or 2,859 t), arabica coffee (0.3% or 7,562 t), and declines in estimates production of cashew nuts (-4.6% or 6,500 t), corn 1st crop (-3.5% or -946,676 t), soybeans (-2.7% or -4,097,738 t), sorghum (-2.2% or -82,114 t), beans 1st crop (-1.9% or -19,218 t), cassava (-1.7% or -307,044t), potatoes 1st crop ( -1.4% or -23,700 t), potatoes 2nd crop (-0.8% or -10,800 t), and rice (-0.5% or -50,278 t).

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 142.3 million tonnes (46.9%); South, 89.9 million tonnes (29.6%); Southeast, 28.9 million tonnes (9.5); Northeast, 25.4 million tonnes (8.4%) and North, 16.9 million tonnes (5.6%).

The main positive changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Tocantins (447,046 t), Pará (118,641 t) and Bahia (17,652 t). The negative changes occurred in Paraná (2,416,400 t), in Mato Grosso (-797,155 t), in Piauí (-277,232 t), in Maranhão (-150,191 t), in Rondônia (-10,799 t), in Ceará (-9,359 t), in Minas Gerais (-5,724 t) and in Rio de Janeiro (-286 t).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production estimate is 8.2 million tonnes, an increase of 9.4% in relation to the third prognosis. In relation to 2023, the first estimates point to a 5.8% increase in production, due to the forecast of a larger planted area (8.5%). With this forecast, there will be another record in cotton production (seed). In 2023, production was also a record when it reached 7.7 million tonnes.

PADDY RICE – The estimate for 2024 points to a production of 10.4 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.5% in relation to the 3rd forecast, and growth of 1.1% in relation to the volume produced in 2023. The area planted should grow 3.1%; the area to be harvested should increase by 4.3% and the average yield, decrease by 3.1%. It is important to highlight the increase in rice areas, as over the last few years there has been a reduction in them, mainly due to the replacement by other more profitable crops, such as soybeans. For 2024, there is a prospect for better rice prices.

POTATOES – Potato production, considering the three crops - summer crop (1st), fall crop (2nd) and winter crop (3rd) - should reach 4.2 million tonnes, a reduction of 0.8% in in relation to the 3rd prognosis. The 1st crop should contribute with 41.1% to the total potatoes to be produced in the year. Estimated production was 1.7 million tonnes, a decline of 1.4% in relation to the 3rd prognosis, with the average yield declining 1.4%. The biggest decline in production in relation to the 3rd prognosis was in Paraná (-5.6%).

The 2nd crop, which represents 33.0% of total production, was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes; 0.8% higher than estimated in the 3rd prognosis. The area to be harvested increased by 0.2% and the average yield was 1.0% lower. For the 3rd crop, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes, as estimated in the 3rd prognosis. In relation to 2023, there were declines of 1.5% in the production estimate, 0.1% in the average yield and 1.4% in the area to be harvested.

COFFEE (beans) - Brazilian coffee production, for 2024, considering the two species, Arabica and Canephora, was 3.5 million tonnes, or 59.1 million bags of 60 kg, an increase of 0. 4% compared to the previous month and an increase of 3.7% compared to 2023.

For Arabica coffee, estimated production was 2.5 million tonnes, or 41.0 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 0.3% compared to December, and 3.9% compared to the previous year. In 2023, although the Arabica coffee crop had a negative bienniality, production showed growth, when compared to 2022, as the weather benefited the crops, causing this bienniality to be reversed. For the current year crop, a positive two-year period is expected, therefore, an increase in production compared to the previous year.

For Canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 18.1 million 60 kg bags, an increases of 0.5% compared to the previous month and 3.4% compared to 2023, mainly due to the 2.2% increase in average income. In the monthly comparison, the harvested area and average yield increased by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

CASHEW NUTS (almonds) – The production estimate for 2024 was 133.8 thousand tonnes, a decline of 4.6% compared to the previous month, however, growth of 14.5% in the annual comparison. The drop in productivity was 4.7% in relation to the 3rd prognosis, however, an increase of 14.5% in relation to 2023, when there were many climate and pest problems that affected cashew crops.

BEAN (seeds) – The estimate of bean production for 2024, considering the three crops, should reach 3.1 million tonnes, growth of 0.4% in relation to the 3rd prognosis and 4.5% in relation to to 2023.

The production estimate for beans 1st crop was 1.0 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.9% compared to the estimate in the 3rd prognosis, however, an increase of 3.3% compared to the same crop in 2023. This number reflects the positive change of 1.9% in the area to be harvested and 1.3% in the average yield.

Beans 2nd crop was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, an increase of 2.1% in relation to the 3rd prognosis, following the estimate of the average yield, which rose 3.3% and the area to be harvested, which fell 1.2%.

Regarding beans 3rd crop, the production estimate was 718.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.4% compared to the estimate in the 3rd prognosis, with the area to be harvested increasing 0.4%. In relation to 2023, there were declines of 7.8% in the production estimate; 1.8% in planted area and 6.1% in average yield.

CASSAVA (roots) – Brazilian production is expected to reach 18.2 million tonnes, declines of 1.7% compared to the previous month and 4.9% compared to 2023. In Pará, the largest Brazilian producer of cassava roots, the production estimate declined 5.3% in relation to the 3rd prognosis and 5.8% in relation to 2023, mainly due to the reduction in the area to be harvested. Production in Pará should reach 3.8 million tonnes, representing 21.0% of the total to be produced by the country in 2024.

CORN (grain) - The estimate for corn production totaled 117.7 million tonnes, representing a drop of 10.2% compared to 2023, largely influenced by the reduction of 1.1 million hectares in the planted area (-4.8%) and the 5.9% reduction in average yield (5,578 kg/ha). When compared to the 3rd prognosis, there was an increase of 0.7% in production and 0.8% in productivity. Less favorable weather and market conditions discouraged producers from investing in cereal cultivation.

Corn 1st crop should present a production of 25.9 million tonnes, 6.7% lower compared to the previous year and 3.5% lower compared to the 3rd prognosis. The drop in planted area, both in annual and monthly comparisons (-7.6% and -2.2%, respectively), was the main cause of the reduction in production. Compared to the 3rd forecast, there was also a 1.3% decline in average income.

Corn 2nd crop estimate showed a production of 91.8 million tonnes, a drop of 11.1% compared to the previous year, however, in relation to the 3rd prognosis, there was a growth of 1.9%. The Central-West region recorded a loss of 15.3% in the production estimate, in relation to 2023, which represents a large impact, since this crop should be responsible for 70.3% of national production in 2024.

SOYBEANS  – Brazilian soybean production should reach 150.4 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.0% compared to the amount obtained in the previous year, and should represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024. The effects caused by the El Nino phenomenon, characterized by excessive rainfall in the states of the Southern region, and the lack of regular rainfall, combined with the record of high temperatures in the Central-North region of the country, have resulted in a limitation in the productive potential of the soybeans in most of the producing Federation Units, justifying the 2.7% drop in the quantity produced in relation to the last prognosis presented. The delayed crop development in the field, in addition to limiting the productive potential of the legume, also impacts the narrowing of the “planting window” for corn 2nd crop.

SORGHUM (grain) – The January estimate for sorghum production was 3.7 million tonnes, reductions of 2.2% in relation to the 3rd prognosis and 14.0% in relation to that obtained in the 2023 crop. Such reductions must occur due to the smaller planted area and, in part, due to the lower average yield.