In April, the estimated output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2023 is 302.1 million tonnes, 14.8% above the harvest in 2022 (263.2 million tonnes) and 0.8% above the amount estimated in March (299.7 million tonnes). The area to be harvested amounts to 76.4 million hectares, 4.3% more than in 2022 and 0.4% above the area estimated in March.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 92.4% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.4% of the area to be harvested. Against 2022, there were increases of 24.7% for soybeans, 2.8% for upland cottonseed and 8.8% for corn, with increases of 9.8% for corn-1st crop and of 8.5% for corn -2nd crop. Estimates for paddy rice and wheat dropped by 7.5% and 1.7%, respectively. As for the area to be harvested, there were increases of 2.8% in the area for corn (by 0.2% for corn - 1st crop and of 3.7% - for corn 2nd crop). The area for upland cotton, wheat and soybean increased by 1.7%, 3.4% and 6.0%, respectively, and that for sorghum, by 11.4%. On the other hand, the area for rice crops dropped 6.7% and that for beans, 2.3%.

For soybeans, the April estimate hit 149.1 million tonnes and that for corn, 119.9 million tonnes (27.9 million tonnes of corn - 1st crop and 91.9 million tonnes of corn - 2nd crop). The rice output estimate reached 9.9 million tonnes, output estimates for wheat, 9.9 million tonnes, that of cottonseed, 6.9 million tonnes and that of sorghum, 3.5 million tonnes.

The output estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded a positive annual change in five Major Regions: South (28.8%), Central-West (12.6%), Southeast (4.3%), North (11.9%) and Northeast (2.8%). As for the

monthly change, the Northeast Region (0.4%), the Central West (0.9%), the Southeast Region (3.3%) and the South Region (0.4%) recorded increases. The North Region recorded decrease (-0.9%).

Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 30.7%, followed by Paraná (15.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (10.1%), Goiás (9.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.1%) and Minas Gerais (6.0%). These states together accounted for 80.0% of the national estimate.

Highlights in the April 2023 estimate in relation to the previous month

Against December, the following products recorded increases in estimate: sorghum (14.6% or 446 259 t), potato 3rd crop (7.2% or 60 650 t), sugarcane (5.4% or 34 105 246 t), beans 2nd crop (2.0% or 27 305 t), oat (1.5% or 16 656 t), potato 2nd crop (1.4% or 16 049 t), tomato (1.3% or 51 010 t), soybean (1.2% or 1 823 405 t), beans 1st crop (1.1% or 11 919 t), beans 3rd crop (1.0% or 6 574 t), wheat (0.9% or 88 637 t), corn 1st crop (0.1% or 24 982 t), corn 2nd crop (0.0% or 40 878 t) and potato 1st crop (0.0% or 707 t), and decreases in the estimates for barley (-2.6% or -13 700 t), café canephora (-2.0% or - 21 116 t) and coffea arabica (-0.4% or -8 905 t).

The regional distribution of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was: Central-West (48.7%), South (28.0%), Southeast (9.6%), Northeast (8.7%) and North (5.0%). The main increases in production, against the previous month, were in Goiás (1 298 334 t), São Paulo (496 613 t), Minas Gerais (423 266 t), Santa Catarina (357 323 t), Ceará (84 379 t), Paraíba (6 156 t), Piauí (6 009 t), Rio de Janeiro (1 252 t), Espírito Santo (267 t) and Maranhão (1 t). The main decreases were in Rondônia (-141 926 t), Paraná (-61 200 t) and Amapá (-260 t).

POTATO – The production of potato in the three crops of the product is expected to reach 3.9 million tonnes, with an increase of 2.0% against the previous month and a decrease of 2.8% from 2022.

COFFEE BEAN – Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee reached 3.3 million tonnes, or 55.2 million 60-kg sacks, with a decrease of 0.9% against the previous month and an increase of 5.5% against 2022.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate hit 2.3 million tonnes or 38.3 million 60-kg sacks, a drop of 0.4% in relation to March and an increase of 13.0% against the previous year. For 2023, the biennial aspect of the harvest must be negative. However, as no more climate problems were reposrted in the winter of 2022 and there was plenty of rain, an increase in production is expected, and there must be, for that reason, a “biennial reversal.”

Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was 1.0 million tonnes or 16.9 million 60-kg sacks, a drop of 2.0% in relation to the previous month and of 8.2% against the previous year.

SUGARCANE – The estimated output of sugarcane is 666.5 million tonnes, with an increase of 5.4% from the previous month and of 6.5% from 2022. The increase of harvest was due to rainfal, mainly in January and February 2023. Besides, there was no frost or a water deficit in the phase of crop development, factors that influenced the results of harvests in the last three months.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The output of wheat must reach 9.9 million tonnes, an increase of 0.9% from 2022, and a decrease of 1.7% from 2022, when Brazil had the biggest harvest in history, therefore a high basis for comparison.

The output estimate of oat was 1.1 million tonnes, with an increase of 1.5% against the previous month and a decline of 6.5% against 2022.

As for barley, the estimated output reached 507.9 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 2.6% in relation to the previous month and an increase of 0.9% from 2022.

BEAN SEED – The fourth estimated output of beans, considering the three crops was 3.1 million tonnes, 1.5% above that in the estimate for March. The Brazilian production of beans in the current year must supply domestic demand in 2023, but has been static in the last few years, wihout the need of importing the product.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 1.1% against the estimate of March, as a result of the increase of 1.4% in average yield and of the drop of 0.4% in harvested area. The 2nd crop was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes with an increase of 2.0% against March figure, following the increase of 1.2% in average yield and of 0.9% in the area to be harvested. The second crop represents 43.8% of the total beans produced in the country.

Regarding the 3rd crop of beans, the estimate reached 649.4 tonnes, with an increase of 1.0% from the estimate of last month, with an increase of 0.7% in the area to be harvested and of 0.3% in average yield. The third crop represented 20.8% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.

CORN GRAIN – The estimate for production of corn is 119.9 million tonnes, representing a slight increase of 0.1% or 65 860 tonnes more, against March 2023, caused by the increase in average yield of 0.6%, since there was a drop of 0.5% in the area to be harvested. Against the same period in 2022, there was an increase of 8.8%, due to the expansion in planted and harvested areas (2.4% and 2.8%, respectively), as the increase in average yield of 5.8%, reaching 5 493 kg/ha.

Corn 1st crop recorded an increase of 0.1% or 24 982 tonnes in comparison with the previous month, and amounted to 27.9 million tonnes. The increase in average yield, of 1.0% (5 275 kg/ha), was responsible for the increase in production, once there were drops of 0.9% in planted area and in harvested area. The loss of 50.0 thousand hectares in planted area of corn - 1st crop may be related to the growing replacement for soybean.

The production estimate for corn-2nd crop amounted to 91.9 million tonnes, and remained practically stable from the previous month, although there was a decrease of 0.4% in planted area and in the area to be harvested. This reduction in planted area can be related to delays in the harvest of soybean, as a result of prolonging of summer rain. In relation to 2022, production recorded an increase of 8.5%, and there were increases of 3.7% in harvested area and of 4.6% in average yield.

SOYBEAN (grain) – The national output of soybeans is expected to reach 149.1 million tonnes, an increase of 24.7% against the previous year, and may represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in 2023. Recovery of crop productivity in most of the country, against the average reached in 2022, is the main factor accounting for the increase in output. Against the previous month, there was an increase of 1.2% in the amount produced, due to the revision of data in Goiás (6.4%), Minas Gerais (2.7%), São Paulo (3.9%) and Santa Catarina (8.3%).

SORGHUM (grain) –The output estimate for sorghum in April 2023 hit 3.5 million tonnes, increases of 14.6% from March, and of 23.0% from 2022. These increases have taken place due to the gain in planted areas against 2022, mainly in Minas Gerais (36.8%) and Goiás (9.8%).

Against March, the Southeast alone was responsible for 40.3% of the national production and the Central West, with an figure of 48.8%, revised their expected output. The Central West pointed to an increase of 6.7% in output and of 6.9% in area, with a drop of 0.2% in average yield, due to the decrease registered in Goiás (-0.4%), main national producer, with 1.3 million tonnes. In the Southeast, the increase in planted area reached 28.2%, with production by Minas Gerais, 1.1 million tonnes and São Paulo, 300.9 thousand tonnes.

TOMATO – Production must reach 4.0 million tonnes in the 2023 harvest, according to the April estimates. This amount is 2.8% bigger than the previous harvest (2022) and means an estimate 1.3% higher, compared with the March estimate. A planted area 1.7% bigger than in the previous year, and the increase of 0.9% in the estimated productivity are the references for the expected increase in national harvest.