In September, industrial prices fell by 1.96% compared to August. The cumulative index in the year reached 5.87% and the cumulative index in 12 months was 9.76%. Prices of 13 of the 24 investigated industrial activities had positive changes compared to the previous month.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the "factory-gate" prices of products, excluding taxes and freight, and covers the major economic categories: capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods ( durable, semi-durable and non-durable).

In September 2022, industry prices fell by 1.96% compared to August. The four major changes were in: petroleum refining and biofuels (-6.79%); other chemical products (-6.20%); mining and quarrying industries (-3.82%); and basic metals (-3.77%).

Oil refining and biofuels was the most influential industrial sector, accounting for -0.89 percentage points (pp) in the change in general industry. Still in this aspect, other activities that also stood out were other chemical products, with -0.62 pp of influence, food (-0.27 pp) and basic metals (-0.24 pp).

The cumulative rate in the year reached 5.87%. In September 2021, this index was at 23.90%. The value of the cumulative rate in the year up to September 2022 is the fourth lowest ever recorded for a month of September since the beginning of the time series, in 2014.

The biggest changes were in: petroleum refining and biofuels (17.90%), paper and pulp (16.60%), printing (15.52%) and wearing apparel (14.77%). In the total result of the industry, the main influences were registered in petroleum refining and biofuels (1.99 pp), food (1.37 pp), basic metals (-0.63 pp) and motor vehicles (0.55 pp).

The cumulative rate in 12 months was 9.76% against 12.24% in August. The four major changes were: petroleum refining and biofuels (33.64%); printing (20.72%); manufacturing of machines and equipment (19.32%); and beverages (18.37%). The sectors with the greatest influence on the aggregate result were: petroleum refining and biofuels (3.43 pp); food (2.22 pp); other chemicals (1.20 pp); and mining and quarrying industries (-0.97 pp).

Among the major economic categories, the changes were: capital goods (0.48%); intermediate goods (-2.42%) and consumer goods (-1.66%), being 0.19% in durable consumer goods and -2.01% in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

The main influence among the major economic categories was exerted by intermediate goods, whose weight in the composition of the general index was 58.51% and accounted for a 1.42 pp change of -1.96% in mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries.

Closing the list are consumer goods, with an influence of -0.57 pp and capital goods with 0.03 pp. In the case of consumer goods, the influence observed in September is divided into 0.01 pp, which was due to the change in prices of durable consumer goods, and -0.58 pp associated with the change of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

In the year, the change was 9.42%, in the case of capital goods; 5.61% in intermediate goods; and 5.61% in consumer goods - and durable consumer goods accumulated a change of 6.46%, while in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, 5.45%.

In terms of influence on the cumulative result for the year in September 2022, capital goods accounted for 0.65 pp of the 5.87% recorded for the general industry. Intermediate goods accounted for 3.29 pp, while consumer goods exerted an influence of 1.94 pp, dividing by 0.36 pp due to changes in the prices of consumer durables and 1.58 pp caused by changes in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

The cumulative rates in 12 months were: capital goods (14.72%); intermediate goods (10.12%) and consumer goods (8.19%), with 9.45% for consumer durables and 7.95% for semi-durable consumer goods.

With regard to influences, with a weight of 58.51% in the calculation of the general index, intermediate goods accounted for 5.90 pp of the 9.76% change accumulated in 12 months by industry, in this reference month. In the September 2022 result, there was also an influence of 2.86 pp of consumer goods and 1.00 pp of capital goods.

The result from consumer goods, in particular, was influenced by 0.53 pp by durable consumer goods and by 2.33 pp by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, the latter with a weight of 83.70% in the calculation of the index for that major category.

Mining and Quarrying Industries: from August to September, prices in the sector changed, on average, -3.82%, the fourth consecutive decline. As a result, the cumulative figure for the year was 4.50% (against 40.72% in September 2021). Compared to the same month, of the year, the prices of September 2022 are 15.48% lower than those of September 2021. In this perspective, it is also the fourth consecutive negative comparison.

The highlight given to the sector is due to the fact that it was the third largest change (in this case, negative) among all the industries surveyed. The two most important products in the sector, “crude petroleum oils” and “iron ore and its concentrates, exc. pelletized/sintered”, pressured the index in the opposite way. “Crude petroleum oil”, with negative impact; “iron ore and its concentrates, exc. pelletized/sintered”, positive. Year-to-date, both have a positive impact on the index, and diverge again in the 12-month period, except that “crude oil” has a positive impact and “iron ore and its concentrates, exc. pelletized/sintered”, a negative one.

Food: the fall in September (-1.13%) was the second, after a decline of 3.50% in August. It was the first occurrence of two consecutive drops since June (-0.76%) and July (-1.61%) 2019.

The cumulative index in the year fell from 6.99% in August to 5.78% in September (against 14.82% in September 2021). In the 12-month period, the rate of 9.32% is the first rate below 10% since January 2020, 9.12%, that is, in 31 months the rates were not only above 10%, but also had an average of 23.11%.

The sector stood out in terms of influence: it was the third highest monthly index (-0.27 pp, in -1.96%); the second cumulative index in the year (1.37 pp, in 5.87%); and again the second in the 12-month period (2.22 pp, at 9.76%).

Among the highlighted products, in terms of change, milk derivatives still appear. In terms of influence (accounting for -0.82 pp, of -1.13%), the products are: “sterilized / UHT / Long Life milk”, “soybean extraction residues”, “meat and offal from frozen poultry” and “frozen beef”. Of these, only the prices of “soybean extraction residues” increased, in part due to the 1.8% depreciation of the real against the dollar, but also due to increased demand, both domestically and abroad.

In the case of meat, both chicken and beef, companies reported a decline in demand. Finally, in the case of milk, after successive increases throughout 2022, greater uptake in dairy basins, with reduced costs (of fuel and energy), and lower demand explain the current drop.

Of the open groups in the sector, two had price declines and sharper than the sector’s result (-1.13%): “slaughter and manufacture of meat products”, -2.18%, and “dairy products”, - 7.87%. In the cumulative results, with the sectoral change of 5.78%, three presented higher changes: “dairy products”, 31.09%, “milling, manufacture of starchy products and animal feed”, 15.80%, and “coffee roasting and grinding”, 7.56%. It is worth mentioning that, in this perspective, “slaughter and manufacture of meat products” and “manufacture and refining of sugar” presented negative changes, -0.28% and -4.06%, respectively.

In the 12-month period (9.32%), “slaughter and manufacture of meat products” and “manufacture and refining of sugar” are the only ones whose rates are lower, 0.01% and 7.96%.

Oil refining and biofuels: prices in the sector changed on average, from August to September, -6.79%, a rate close to the previous month, -6.99%. As a result, the cumulative index for the year, which was 26.49% in August, dropped to 17.90% (against 49.70% in September 2021). Finally, in the September 2022/September 2021 comparison, current prices are 33.64% higher, the lowest rate since February 2021 (18.25%). In July 2022, the index number reached its highest level (262.34), at that time 46.03% higher than that of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. In September, this distance increased to 33.17%.

The behavior of prices in the sector led it to being the biggest change and the biggest influence, in the three indicators calculated in the analysis. In the case of change, the monthly one is negative, and the others, positive. In terms of influence: monthly (-0.89 pp, in -1.96%); cumulative index in the year (1.99 pp, in 5.87%); and in cumulative index in 12 months (3.43 pp, in 9.76%).

Of the products listed as highlights in terms of change and in terms of influence, three (“ethyl alcohol - anhydrous or hydrated”, “aviation kerosene” and “gasoline other than for aviation”) appear in both lists. However, “naphtha” stands out in terms of change, being replaced, in the case of influence, by “diesel fuel”. The four most influential products account for -6.13 pp, of the -6.79% change.

Other chemical products: the chemical industry, in the month of September, presented a change of -6.20%, the fifth negative in the year and the most intense in the entire series of the survey. An analysis by economic group shows that the result for the month was distributed differently among them, with “manufacture of inorganic chemical products” presenting an average change of -5.32% in the month, “manufacture of resins and elastomers”, -8.32%, and “manufacture of pesticides and pesticides from omissions”, -1.64%.

Thus, the cumulative index in the year reached -1.30%, with the groups “manufacture of inorganic chemical products” and “manufacture of resins and elastomers” reaching -0.74% and -22.88%, respectively. Conversely, “manufacture of pesticides and household disinfectants” showed a change of 32.35% in the same indicator.

In relation to the result of the last 12 months, inorganic chemical groups and pesticides and household disinfectants were respectively 27.29% and 38.71%, both contributing significantly to the 12.96% change in 12 months. “Manufacture of resins and elastomers” presented a change of -17.17%.

Regarding the four products that most influenced the monthly result (-3.10 pp, in -6.20%), there was a price reduction in all four: “phosphate fertilizers or mineral or chemical fertilizers”, “unsaturated propene (propylene)”, “benzene” and “linear polyethylene, with a density lower than 0.94”. The other 35 products surveyed in the activity had, on average, a negative result of -3.10 pp of the final change of the activity in the month.

The sector stood out, in comparison with the 24 activities of the survey, for having the second largest price change in the month, in addition to having the second largest influence also in the month and the third in the cumulative index in 12 months.

Basic metals: in the September versus August comparison, the activity price change was -3.77%, the sixth negative in the year. Thus, the sector accumulated a change of -8.78% in the year and -8.88% in 12 months. Between December 2018 (base of the current sample) and September 2022, prices in the sector had a cumulative change of 70.86%, a value very close to the general IPP indicator for the same period (70.77%).

The sector's results are linked to the steel group (steel products) and non-ferrous materials (copper, gold and aluminum), which have different price behaviors. The steel economic group, which is part of the basic metals activity, presented, for the seventh time in the year, a negative change, now reaching -4.45%. As a result, in September, the index reached -7.01% in the year and -13.22% in the last 12 months.

Regarding the four products that most influenced the change in the month (“pig iron”, “stainless steel coils or sheets, including strips”, “carbon steel hot-rolled coils, uncoated” and “coils or sheets of stainless steel, galvanized or chrome plated”; all with negative price changes), they accounted for -2.08 pp, from -3.77%, with -1.69 pp to the other 20 analyzed products.

The basic metal sector stood out, in comparison with the 24 activities in the survey, for having both the fourth largest change in prices, in module, in the month, as well as the fourth largest influence on September prices and the third in the cumulative influence of the year.

Motor vehicles: in September, the change observed in the sector, when compared to the previous month, was 0.17%. This was the 27th consecutive positive result in this indicator, being the least intense increase observed in the monthly comparison during this period in which it accumulated a high of 32.34%.

It is worth remembering that, during this period, the sector has been impacted by increases in costs in its production chain, especially in electronic inputs, due to the semiconductor crisis, which helps to explain the higher prices observed in the period. In the first nine months of 2022, the sector accumulates a change of 8.09%. The change accumulated in the last 12 months was 11.25%, a result that has been showing a deceleration and is the lowest observed since December 2020 (11.15%).

The activity of motor vehicles stood out, among all the sectors analyzed in the survey, for having the fourth largest influence on the cumulative indicator in the year, with 0.55 pp in 5.87% of the General Industry, in addition to having the fourth largest current weight in the calculation of the general indicator, with a contribution of 6.88%.

The economic group “manufacture of cars, vans and utilities” presented, in September, a change of 0.29% compared to August. As in the sector, this is the 27th consecutive positive result in this indicator, having accumulated an increase of 27.64% in this period. In addition, the group accumulates, in these first nine months of 2022, a change of 7.13%, while, in the last 12 months, it presents a result of 10.30%.

In an analysis by products in the sector, it is possible to observe that, among the four most influential in the monthly comparison, two of them had a positive impact on the index: “gasoline or bi-fuel passenger car” (the most important product in the sector) and “parts/accessories, motor vehicle engine system”. And two others had a negative impact on the indicator: “gear and transmission systems for motor vehicles” and “air/oil/fuel filter for motor vehicle engines”. The influence of these four products that most impacted the change of the month in relation to the previous month was 0.05 pp, that is, the other 19 products of the activity contributed with 0.12 pp.