Inflation accelerated to 1.25% in October, the highest for the month since 2002, when the index was 1.31%. As a result, the indicator accumulates highs of 8.24% in the year and 10.67% in the last 12 months, above the rate registered in the 12 previous months (10.25%). In October last year, the monthly change was 0.86%. The data are from the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), released today (November 10) by the IBGE.

All nine groups of products and services surveyed rose in October, with a highlight to transportation (2.62%), mainly due to fuels (3.21%). Gasoline rose 3.10% and had the biggest individual impact on the month's index (0.19 pp). It was the sixth consecutive rise in the prices of this fuel, which accumulated a 38.29% change in the year and 42.72% in the last 12 months.

"Transportation had the biggest change and the biggest impact (0.55 pp) by far on the month's index," says IPCA manager Mr. Pedro Kislanov. The rise in gasoline is related to successive price rises that have been applied at refineries by Petrobras. In addition to gasoline, there was also an increase in the prices of diesel fuel (5.77%), ethanol (3.54%) and vehicle gas (0.84%)”.

The prices of airfares also accelerated (33.86%). There was an increase in all regions surveyed, ranging from 8.10% in Rio Branco to 47.52% in Recife.

“The exchange rate depreciation and the rise in fuel prices, particularly aviation kerosene, have contributed to the increase in airfares. The improvement in the pandemic scenario, with the advance of vaccination, led to an increase in the flow of people and passenger traffic at airports. As supply has not yet adjusted to demand, this could also be contributing to the rise in prices,” explains Mr. Kislanov.

Another highlight was the acceleration in app transportation prices (19.85%), which had already risen 9.18% in September. New cars (1.77%) and used cars (1.13%) are also on the rise and accumulate, in 12 months, changes of 12.77% and 14.71%, respectively.

Prices also advanced in the food and beverage group (1.17%), the second largest contribution (0.24 pp) in the IPCA, driven by increases in tomatoes (26.01%) and potatoes (16.01% ), which accelerated food at home (1.32%). “This increase in tomato and potato is due to the reduction in supply caused by the cold and rains”, observes Pedro Kislanov. Ground coffee (4.57%), chicken in pieces (4.34%), cheese (3.06%) and whole chicken (2.80%) also rose. On the other hand, the prices of acai berries (-8.64%), long-life milk (-1.71%) and rice (-1.42%) dropped.

Food away increased from 0.59% in September to 0.78% in October, mainly due to snacks (1.31%), which had presented a negative change in the previous month (-0.35%). Meals (0.74%), in turn, slowed down compared to the result of September (0.94%).

In the housing group (1.04%), once again, the increase was influenced by electricity (1.16%), although this item has decelerated compared to September (6.47%). “In October, the Water Scarcity flag was maintained, which adds R$14.20 to the electricity bill for every 100 kWh consumed. There were also tariff adjustments in regions with a significant weight in the IPCA, such as Goiânia, São Paulo and Brasília”, adds the index manager.

Bottled gas (3.67%) also rose for the 17th consecutive month in October, having accumulated an increase of 44.77% since June 2020.

In the other IPCA groups, apparel also stands out (1.80%), which had the second biggest change in the index in the month, with hikes in all surveyed items. Household articles changed 1.27%, contributing with 0.05 pp. The other groups were between the 0.06% for education and the 0.75% for personal expenses.

All areas surveyed had increased prices in October. The biggest changes were in the metropolitan area of Vitória and in the municipality of Goiânia, both with 1.53%. In Vitória, the result was influenced by the water and sewage fees (11.33%) and electricity (3.35%). In Goiânia, in addition to electricity (5.34%), gasoline (4.24%) weighed heavily. The smallest change occurred in the metropolitan area of Belém (0.64%), where there was a drop in the prices of acai berries (-8.77%) and electricity (-1.23%).

INPC rises 1.16% in October

The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) rose 1.16% in October, also the highest result for the month since 2002 (1.57%). In the year, the indicator accumulates an increase of 8.45% and, in 12 months, of 11.08%, above the 10.78% observed in the previous 12 months. In October 2020, the rate was 0.89%.

Food products rose 1.10% in October, above the change observed in September (0.94%). Non-food products increased by 1.18%, while in September they had registered 1.28%.

All areas registered positive change in October. The lowest index was observed in the metropolitan area of Belém (0.51%), where the declines in the prices of acai berries (-8.77%) and electricity (-1.22%) weighed. The biggest change was registered in the metropolitan area of Vitória (1.64%), whose result was mainly impacted by the water and sewage fees (13.68%).

More about the surveys

The IPCA encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whereas the INPC, households with earnings between 1 and 5 minimum wages, in the metropolitan areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Vitória, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as in the Federal District and in the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju. Please, access the data at the Sidra database. And learn more about the IPCA on the IBGE Explains channel.