In August, the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to reach 251.7 million tonnes in 2021, with a decrease of 1.0% (-2.4 million tonnes) against 2020 (254.1 million tonnes) and a drop of 1.7% (-4.4 million metric tonnnes) in relation to the figure estimated by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) in July (256.1 million tonnes). The area to be harvested is of 68.3 million hectares, 4.3% (2.8 million tonnes) above the area havested in 2020 and 0.1% (46.0 thousand hectares) above the July estimate.

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, account for 92.4% of the output estimate and for 87.6% of the area to be harvested. The area for corn production increased by 6.2% (1.3% in the first crop and 8.0% in the second one) and the area for soybeans, by 4.7% against 2020. However, the area for upland cotton production dropped 16.0% and that for rice, 0.2%.

A record soybean output is expected for 2021, 133.8 million tonnes, with a rise of 10.1% against the amount produced in 2020. The output of rice was estimated at 11.5 million tonnes, an increase of 4.3%. There was a 15.5% decrease in the corn output (4.1% in the first crop and 19.45 in the second one), amounting to 87.3 million tonnes. The output estimate for upland cotton also decreased (-16.6%), and adds up to 5.9 million tonnes.

The August’s report for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2021 reached 251.7 million tonnes and a harvested area of 68.3 million hectares. The area to be harvested rose 4.3% (2.8 million hectares) in relation to 2020. There was an increase of 46.0 thousand hectares in relation to the forecast in the previous month.

Estimates for the South (6.0%), Southeast (0.1%), North (1.0%) and Notheast (1.8%) recorded increases. The South is expected to produce 77.5 million tonnes (30.8% of the total in the country), the Southeast, 25.7 million tonnes (10.2% of the total), the Northeast, 23.0 million (9.1% of the total) and the North, 11.1 million (4.4% of the total). The Central West recorded an increase of 6.1% in estimate and is expected to produce 114.4 million tonnes in 2021 (45.5%) of the total in the country.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso leads as the main national producer, with a share of 28.2%, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (13.5%), Paraná (13.5%), Goiás (9.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.7%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%), which, together, represented 79.7% of the national overall. The positive changes in production estimates against the previous month took place in Alagoas (26.2 thousand tonnes), Maranhão (18.8 thousand tonnes), Amapá (8.1 thousand tonnes), Rondônia (5.8 thousand tonnes), Acre (1,7 thousand tonnes), Espírito Santo (1.1 thousand tonnes) and in Rio de Janeiro (20 tonnes). In contrast, negative changes took place in Mato Grosso do Sul (-1.9 million tonnes), Paraná (-1,1 million tonnes), Minas Gerais (-854.8 thousand tonnes), Piauí (-375.5 thousand tonnes), Sergipe (-150.4 thousand tonnes), Ceará (-130.5 thousand tonnes), Bahia (-79.5 thousand tonnes), Pernambuco (-5,0 thousand tonnes) and Rio Grande do Norte (-2.6 thousand tonnes).

Highlights in the August 2021 estimate in relation to July

In August, the highlights were positive changes in the following output estimates against July: beans - 3rd crop (4.0% or 21.5 thousand tonnes), soybean (0.3% or 341.0 thousand tonnes) and barley (0.1% or 600 tonnes).

On the other hand, decreases are expected in the output of sorghum (-6.0% or 151.4 thousand tonnes), corn 2nd crop (-5.2% or 3.4 million tonnes), beans - 1st crop (-4.8% or 58.2 thousand tonnes), beans - 2nd crop (-3.1% or 30,5 thousand tonnes), of wheat (-2.3% or 189.4 thousand tonnes), oat (-11% or 11.4 thousand tonnes), coffea arabica (-0.4% or 8.5 thousand tonnes) and coffea canephora (-0.0% or 172 tonnes).

COFFE BEAN (em grão) – Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee for 2021 was of 2.9 million tonnes, or 48.9 million 60 kg sacks, with a decrease 0.3% against the previous month and a decrease of 21.2% against the previous year. Average yield, of 1 604 kg/ha, in turn, fell 0.4% against the previous month, with a decrease of 18.5% in the annual comparison.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was of 2.0 million tonnes or 33.6 million 60-kg sacks, a drop of 0.4% in relation to the previous month and a drop of 29.6% against the previous year. In 2020, the Brazilian harvest of coffea arabica was biennually positive, with the biggest output in the country and a record in the IBGE time series.

Minas Gerais is the biggest producer of coffea arabica, and is expected to represent 69.9%of the Brazilian output. The output in Minas Gerais was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, with a decrease of 0.3% against the previous month, of 31.1% in relation to the previous year. In comparison with the output in 2020, there was a drop of 5.1% both in planted area and in the area to be harvested, and a decrease of 27.4% in average yield, being associated to the negative results in the biennial of this crop.

In São Paulo, output was estimated at 262.2 thousand tonnes or 4.4 million 60-kg sacks, a drop of 29.0% against 2020. In Espírito Santo, the output was estimated at 160.2 thousand tonnes or 2.7 million 60-kg sacks, decreaes of 3.4% against the previous month and of 29.0% against 2020.

In Bahia, output estimate reached 92.0 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 23.7% versus the figure in 2020. The output of Paraná was estimated at 52.0 thousand tonnes, or 866.7 thousand 60 kg sacks, a decrease of 7.8% against 2020, with a drop of 6.7% in planted area.

Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was 919.7 thousand tonnes or 15.3 million 60-kg sacks, increases of 6.3% in relation to 2020. The average yield, of 2 340 kg/ha, increased 6.0% in the latest period compared.

In Espírito Santo, the main Brazilian producer, with nearly 67.2% of the total output in 2021, the estimate is 618.3 thousand tonnes, or 10.3 million 60 kg sacks, a growth of 10.0% against the previous year.

In Bahia, the output estimate reached 126.2 thousand metric tons, with an increase of 0.5% in relation to the output in 2020. In the beginning of the year , there was an increase in volume of rainfall in the main producing areas of conillon coffee in these states, which affected average yield, expected to be at 2 338 kg/ha in Espírito Santo, and 3 116 kg/ha in Bahia.

WINTER CEREALS (em grão) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated production of wheat was is 8.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.3% against the previous month and an increase of 31.8% against 2020, and the average yield is expected to increase 16.5%. Planted area increased by 13.1% as a result of the price of the product, which rose just like other agricultural commodities. The South Region is expected to account for 90.5% of the national wheat production in 2021.

In Paraná, main wheat producer, with a contribution of 45.5% to the national overall, output was estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, a drop of 4.3% in relation to the previous month, however, an increase of 19.3% in the annual comparison. Rio Grande do Sul, the second biggest producer (41.7% of the total), output is expected to reach 3.4 million tonnes, a growth of 62.1% in relation to the previous year. In Santa Catarina, output estimate is 275.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 58.9% against the previous year.

The estimate for wheat in the Southeast, 592.9 thousand tonnes, fell 5.5% in relation to 2020, despite the increase of 2020, despite the growth of 5.3% in planted area. Output estimates of Minas Gerais and São Paulo reached 243.0 thousand tonnes and 349.9 thousand tonnes, respectively. In Central West, Goiás, with 100.6 thousand tonnes and Mato Grosso do Sul, with 42.3 thousand tonnes are expected to account for the biggest output. The Federal District reported an output estimate of 10.5 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 7.9% in relation to 2020.

The output estimate of oat was 1.0 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.1% against July and a growth of 11.7% against the previous year. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, the biggest producers, have estimated harvests of 794.5 thousand tonnes and of 170.0 thousand tonnes, respectively. In Santa Catarina, the output estimate is 35.1 thousand tonnes, an increase of 41.5% against the previous year. The South Region concentrated 96.7% of the Brazilian output of this cereal.

As for barley, the estimated output (480.9 thousand tonnes) increased by 0.1% in relation to the previous month and 26.9% in relation to 2020. The biggest producers of this cereal are Paraná, with 355.2 thousand tonnes, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 110.0 thousand tonnes, which, together, represented 96.8% of the national overall. The amount produced by São Paulo and Santa Catarina were estimated at 12.7 thousand and 3.0 thousand tonnes, respectively.

BEAN SEED – The eighth estimate for national output of beans in 2021, considering the three crops was 2.7 million tonnes. This output estimate is 2.4% smaller than in July. In this review, the Federation Units with the biggest participation in the produciton esimate were Paraná (20.3%), Minas Gerais (20.0%) and São Paulo (11.7%). As for the annual change, estimate for the area to be harvested decreased by 0.5%. Output dropped 7.4%, with a decrease of 7.4% in average yield against 2020.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 4.8% in relation to the July estimate. This 1st harvest represents 43.6% of the total amount of beans produced in the country. Against 2020, estimates fell by 11.0% (output); 6.7% (average yield) and 4.5% (area to be harvested). Positive highlights were: Minas Gerais (4.3%), São Paulo (8.6%), Santa Catarina (1.3%) and Goiás (10.9%), whereas the negative ones were Piauí (-34.4%), Ceará (-8.5%), Rio Grande do Norte (-54.7%), Paraíba (-18.3%), Pernambuco (-40.7%), Bahia (-24.2%), Paraná (-18.7%) and Federal District (-36.6%).

The 2nd crop is estimated at 947.0 thousand tonnes, a drop of 3.1% against the July estimate. Negative highlights were Ceará (-6.0%), Pernambuco (-5.8%), Alagoas (-12.2%), Sergipe (-51.5%), Bahia (-7.1%), Minas Gerais (-8.5%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-32.7%). The second crop represents 35.4% of the total beans produced in the country. The eighth output estimate for the 2nd crop of beans points to a decrease of 6.0% against 2020. Average yield is expected to fall by 12.0% and the area to be harvested, by 6.8%.

Negative highlights are Bahia (-40.2%), Minas Gerais (-13.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-43.0%), São Paulo (-1.1%) and Goiás (-22.2%). Positive ones are Tocantins (32.4%), Pernambuco (25.3%), Alagoas (76.8%), Paraná (6.4%), Mato Grosso (1.1%), Pará (6.3%), Maranhão (0.7%), Paraíba (3.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (36.0%). The biggest output estimates were those of Paraná (30.2%), Minas Gerais (15.6%) and Mato Grosso (12.4%).

For the 3rd crop of beans, output estimate estimate was 560.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 4.0% against March. Five of the the nine states with data for the third crop of beans maintained the estimates of last survey. Negative highlights were Paraná (-8.3%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.1%) Minas Gerais and Goiás had estimated escreased of 9.5% and 2.3%, respectively.

MCORN GRAIN (em grão) – With an area to be harvested of 19.6 million hectares and average yield of 4 499 kg/ha, against the last monthly data, output estimate declined by 4.7%, and reached 87.3 million tonnes. In relation to the previous year, the output is expected to be 15.5% smaller, though planted area (6.8%) and the area to be harvested (6.2%) recorded increases. Average yield dropped 20.4%.

For the first crop, the estimated output is 25.5 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.5% against the previous month. There was a revisiom of output estimate in some states of the Northeast, mainly in Piauí (-6.9%) and Ceará (-21.3%), besides Paraná (-18.1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-6.6%) and Goiás (-1.6%). Concerning the annual change, the output estimate was 4.1% lower than in 2020. Although planted area increased by 2.2%, average yield dropped 5.3%. Output fell in Rondônia (-4.6%), Piauí (-12.2%), Tocantins (-11.9%), Ceará (-34.4%), Paraná (-12.6%), Santa Catarina (-18.5%) and Federal District (-38.5%).

For the second crop, the estimated production was 61.7 million tonnes, representing a drop of 5.2% (3.4 million tonnes) against the previous month. There were decreases in output estimates in several federation Units, especially in Piauí (-33.0%), Sergipe (-17.3%), Bahia (-11.3%), Minas Gerais (-26.5%), Paraná (-3.1%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-24.7%). In relation to the previous year, the estimate for the second crop of corn was 19.4% smaller, despite the increase of 8.5% in planted area. Average yield is expected to decrease by 25.4%.

The main producers of corn 2nd crop, in 2021, must be Mato Grosso, with 32.0 million tonnes and a contribution of 51.8% to the national overall; followed by Goiás, with an output of 7.3 million metric tons and Mato Grosso do Sul, with 6.7 million metric tons which, in this crop, surpassed Paraná, the output of which was 5.9 million tonnes. The following Federation Units recorded drops in output estimates, in comparison with the previous year. Mato Grosso (-4.9%), Paraná (-49.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-36.7%) and Goiás (-27.4%).

SOYBEAN GRAIN – Output estimate is 133.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% against the previous month. Agaisnt 2020, the estimate was 10.1% higher, being equivalent to 12.2 million tonnes. With few reevaluations in August, the following federation Units stand out, with output increase: Mato Grosso do Sul (2.9%), Amapá (41.3%) and Alagoas (150.6%). The main decrease in output estimates took place in Acre (-2.8%) and Piauí (-1.1%). Piauí reduced its output estimate, due to climatic problems occurred during the crop cycle, with a decrease of 1.9% in the productivity of crops. However, the state is expected to produce 2.7 million tonnes, an increase of 1.9% against 2020. The cerrado in the state still has big areas for possible expsnsion of soybean crops and, this year, planted area grew 9.7% or by 73.4 thousand hectares. Such increase of area can be observed in other states that form “MATOPIBA”. In Maranhão, increase amounted to 46.2 thousand, in Tocantins, to 23.5 thousand hectares and in Bahia to almost 80.0 thousand hectares.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The estimated production is 2.4 million tonnes, a drop of 6.0% from the previous month. Decrease was alsoe recored in the estimated area to be harvested (1.2%), whereas the average yield fell 4.9%. Goiás is the main national producer of sorghum, with 43.9% of the overall output. In this survey, there was an increase of 0.7% in the output estimate against July. As for the Central West, a Major Region that accounts for 53.9% of the national output, estimate increased by 0.6%, led by figures of Goiás. Output estimate reached 13.8%, being below that in the previous year, and influenced by the decrease of 6.1% in the area to be harvested and of 8.2% in the estimated average yield. Minas Gerais, second main national producer, with 26.0% of the total, had an estimate 28.5% smaller against 2020.