In July, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2021 declined once again in relation to the previous month (-0.9% or 2.4 million tonnes), though it remained a record. As a result, the harvest should reach 256.1 million tonnes, 0.8% higher than that obtained in 2020 (254.1 million tonnes), an increase of 1.9 million tonnes. The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) also unveiled that the area to be harvested was 68.2 million hectares, 4.3% larger (2.8 million hectares) than the area harvested in 2020. The area to be harvested rose 0.3% in relation to the previous month (177.6 thousand hectares).

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which altogether represented 92.4% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.7% of the area to be harvested. The area for corn increased 6.5% (increases of 1.6% in the first crop and of 8.2% in the second one) and the area for soybeans, 4.4% in relation to the previous year. However, the area for upland cotton declined 16.0% and for rice, 0.1%.

Concerning the output, an increase of 9.8% was expected for the harvest of soybeans in relation to 2020, continuing to rise its record as it should reach 133.4 million tonnes in 2021. Paddy rice was expected to rise as well (4.1%). On the other hand, upland cotton (-16.6%) and corn (-11.3%) should drop.

The July´s report for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2021 reached 256.1 million tonnes and a harvested area of 68.2 million hectares. The area to be harvested rose 4.3% (2.8 million hectares) in relation to 2020. It rose 177.6 thousand hectares against the forecast of the previous month.

The South (7.5%), Northeast (4.9%), Southeast (3.4%) and North (0.9%) regions rose their estimates. The first one should produce 78.6 million tonnes (30.7% of the national overall); the second one, 23.7 million tonnes (9.3% of the total); the third one, 26.6 million tonnes (10.4% of the total) and the fourth one, 11.1 million tonnes (4.3% of the total).

For the Central-West, which is the biggest producer (45.3% of the national overall), a drop of 4.6% was estimated over 2020 and it should produce 116.1 million tonnes in 2021.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led as the biggest national producer of grains, with a share of 27.7%, followed by Paraná (14.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.7%), Goiás (9.1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.3%) and Minas Gerais (6.4%), which, together, represented 79.8% of the national overall. The positive changes in the production estimates over the previous month took place in Rio Grande do Sul (829.5 thousand tonnes), Santa Catarina (126.4 thousand tonnes), Mato Grosso (119.2 thousand tonnes), Bahia (68.0 thousand tonnes), Pará (48.2 thousand tonnes), Rondônia (24.2 thousand tonnes) and Rio de Janeiro (1.8 thousand tonnes).

In contrast, the negative changes occurred in Paraná (-2.9 million tonnes), Goiás
(-553.1 thousand tonnes), Ceará (-54.0 thousand tonnes), Paraíba (-49.3 thousand tonnes), Pernambuco (-43.0 thousand tonnes), Minas Gerais (-18.3 thousand tonnes), Rio Grande do Norte (-8.3 thousand tonnes) and Maranhão (-4.7 thousand tonnes).

Highlights in July 2021 estimate in relation to June

In July, the following positive changes in the production estimates over June highlighted: barley (7.1% or 31.7 thousand tonnes), wheat (6.3% or 496.8 thousand tonnes), upland cottonseed (4.0% or 228.5 thousand tonnes), cacao nut (3.6% or 9.7 thousand tonnes), paddy rice (2.6% or 293.4 thousand tonnes), corn - 1st crop (2.4% or 630.1 thousand tonnes), oat (1.9% or 19.2 thousand tonnes), beans - 2nd crop (0.5% or 4.4 thousand tonnes) and soybeans (0.1% or 171.4 thousand tonnes).

On the other hand, declines were expected in corn - 2nd crop (-5.9% or 4.1 million tonnes), sorghum (-4.4% or 114.8 thousand tonnes, beans - 1st crop (-2.8% or 35.3 thousand tonnes and beans - 3rd crop (-2.6% or 14.3 thousand tonnes).

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The seventh estimate for the output of cotton was of 5.9 million tonnes, an increase of 4.0% over June. The output estimate in Mato Grosso, the biggest producer in Brazil (68.8% of the total), was 5.2% higher than the last estimate, hitting 4.1 million tonnes. Bahia, the second biggest producer (21.5% of the total), estimated to produce 1.3 million tonnes, 2.9% above the June´s estimate.

Reductions of 16.0% in the planted area and of 16.6% in the production estimate were registered in relation to 2020, as well as a decline of 0.7% for the average yield. Mato Grosso reduced the planted area by 15.6%, as well as the estimated output by 16.9% and the average yield by 1.6%. Bahia should have an output 14.0% lower and reduced the planting area of cotton by 14.9% (268.0 thousand hectares).

PADDY RICE - The estimated production of rice was of 11.5 million tonnes, an increase of 2.6% over the previous month, due to the re-assessment of the productivity of the crops, with a rise of 2.7%. “That production will be sufficient to supply the Brazilian domestic market, allowing more balanced prices of the cereal, which hit a historical level in 2020, as a result of the increase in the domestic consumption and in the exports, due to the currency stimulus. Compared with 2020, the production will be 4.1% higher.

The biggest impact on the change of estimate against the previous month was due to the re-assessment of the information of Rio Grande do Sul. Responsible for 71.8% of the national output, its crop hit the highest productivity in Brazil and the highest one ever reached by the state, benefited from the luminosity in the drought period, and hit a growth of 3.7%.

CACAO NUT - The estimated production of cacao was 278.8 thousand tonnes, an increase of 3.6% over the previous month. Pará and Bahia, the largest producers of this product, should account for 93.2% of the national output this year. In Pará, the estimated production stayed at 144.7 thousand tonnes. The output of 115.0 thousand tonnes in Bahia represented an increase of 8.5% over the previous month, due to the re-assessment of the yield of the crops, which grew 8.7%.

In relation to the previous year, the Brazilian production of cacao was 0.7% lower, with a decline of 2.5% in Bahia. It rose 1.9% in Espírito Santo and should reach 11.5 thousand tonnes.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. In 2020, winter crops were affected by climate problems, reducing their production potential. For 2021, producers are more optimist with the climate and the prices of the cereal are higher.

The estimated output of wheat was of 8.4 million tonnes, a growth of 6.3% over the previous month and of 34.8% over 2020, and the average yield should increase 19.9%. The planted area increased 12.4%, due to stimulus of the price of the product. The South Region should account for 90.4% of the national wheat production in 2021. In Paraná, the biggest producer (46.4% of the national total), the production should increase 24.6% over 2020, hitting 3.9 million tonnes. Rio Grande do Sul, the second biggest producer (40.7% of the total), should produce 62.1% more than in 2020, hitting 3.4 million tonnes. Santa Catarina also invested more in the cereal, raising its production estimate by 58.9% over 2020 and reaching 275.6 thousand tonnes in 2021.

He estimate of the output of oat was of 1.0 million tonnes, an increase of 1.9% over June and a growth of 12.9% over the previous year. The South Region concentrated 96.5% of the Brazilian output of this cereal. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, the biggest producers, estimated harvests of 794.5 thousand tonnes and of 178.5 thousand tonnes, respectively. In Santa Catarina, the production should stay at 35.1 thousand tonnes, an increase of 41.5% over 2020.

For barley, the estimate stayed at 480.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 7.1% in relation to the previous month and a growth of 26.8% in relation to 2020. The biggest producers of this cereal were Paraná, with 354.6 thousand tonnes, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 110.0 thousand tonnes, which, together, represented 96.7% of the national overall.

BEAN (seed) - Considering the three crops of the product, the seventh estimate of the output of beans was of 2.7 million tonnes, a decline of 1.6% in relation to the previous month and an increase of 0.5% in relation to 2020.

The first crop of beans was of 1.2 million tonnes, a decline of 2.8% against the June´s estimate. The area to be harvested reduced 1.9% and the average yield, 0.8%. The following states reduced their output: Ceará (-5.9%), Rio Grande do Norte (-20.4%), Paraíba (-34.6%), Pernambuco (-36.0%) and Mato Grosso (-13.0%).

The second crop, which represented 35.7% of the total, was estimated at 977.5 thousand tonnes, 0.5% above that estimated in June. The area to be harvested increased 1.7%, though the average yield declined 1.1%. The output in Paraná (4.3%) and Pará (4.7%) should rise. In contrast, Paraíba (-25.4%), Minas Gerais (-1.4%), Mato Grosso (-1.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-1.9%) should drop.

Concerning the third crop, the production estimate was of 539.1 thousand tonnes, a reduction of 2.6% over the June´s forecast. The estimate for the area to be harvested reduced 1.8%. Of the nine states with information for the third crop of beans, six of them maintained the estimates of the last survey. The estimates of the production in Paraná (-40.0%) and Goiás (-8.8%) declined. Only Mato Grosso forecast an increase (3.1%) in the output.

CORN (grain) - With a dropping average yield (-3.4%), the estimate of the production declined 3.6% in relation to the last monthly report, adding up to 91.6 million tonnes. In relation to the previous year, the output should be 11.3% smaller, though the planted area (6.6%) and the area to be harvested (6.5%) increased.

In the first crop of corn, the estimated production was of 26.4 million tonnes, an increase of 2.4% in relation to the previous month. The estimate in Paraná was revised, causing an increase of 22.5% (700 thousand tonnes), as well as in Rio Grande do Sul (more 0.9% or 40.6 thousand tonnes).

For the second crop, the estimate of the production fell 5.9% against the previous month, standing at 65.2 million tonnes. Paraná (-37.8% or 3.7 million tonnes), Goiás (-4.9% or 375.1 thousand tonnes) and Pernambuco (-17.2% or 9.2 thousand tonnes) registered the major drops. In relation to the previous year, the estimate for the second harvest of corn was 15.0% smaller, despite the increase of 8.2% in the planted area.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The estimate for the production of soybeans was of 133.4 million tonnes, an increase of 0.1% over the previous month and another record, even having some Federation Units facing climate problems. In relation to the previous year, the production estimate should be 9.8% higher, the equivalent to 11.9 million tonnes. The planted area increased 4.5% (1.7 million hectares) and the productivity also grew (5.2%).

With few re-assessments in July, Rio Grande do Sul (0.7%) and Pará (2.1%) stood out. On the other hand, Rondônia reduced its output by 2.8%.

In the annual comparison, Rio Grande do Sul recovered its production, which had been very affected by the drought in 2020, resulting in a growth of 80.6% and hitting a record of 20.43 million tonnes. As a result, this state became the second biggest national producer of soybeans, surpassing Paraná (19.9 million tonnes).

In the region comprising the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, known as MATOPIBA, only Tocantins reduced the output (-6.3%). The others recorded significant increases ,like Piauí (12.2%), Bahia (12.6%) and Maranhão (4.5%).

SORGHUM (grain) - The estimate of the output was of 2.5 million tonnes, a decline of 4.4% in relation to the previous month. The estimate of the area to be harvested increased 1.0% and the average yield reduced 5.3%. The estimate of the production was 8.3% lower than that of the previous year, influenced by the decrease of 5.0% in the area to be harvested and of 3.4% in the estimate of the average yield.

Goiás was the biggest national producer of sorghum, with 40.9% of the overall production. In this survey, it decreased 12.7% over June. Minas Gerais, the second biggest producer (30.8% of the total), estimated a reduction of 10.1% over 2020. The Central-West Region (50.4% of the national overall) had its estimate reduced by 10.5%.