In April 2021, industry prices rose 1.89% from March, a change below that for the March/February this year (4.63%). The cumulative index in the year reached 16.08% and was the lowest in the series, for a month of April. The cumulative index in 12 months (35.69%) also hit a record. In 2018, prices of 18 of the 24 activities rose, against 23 in the previous month.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) of Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the change in "factory-gate prices", free of taxes or freight, of major economic activities:capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods (durable, semidurable and non-durable).

In April 2021, industry prices rose 1.89% from March, a figure below that recorded in the March/February comparison (4.63%). The four biggest changes were those of wood (6.26%), metal products (5.96%), basic metals (4.97%) and other chemicals (4.54%).

Other chemicals (0.40 p.p), food products (0.36 p.p), basic metals 90.35 p.p) and metal products (0.16 p.p) accounted for the main contributions.

The cumulative index in the year reached 16.08%, against 13.92% in March/2021, and was the highest for a month of April, in all the series. Among the activities recording biggest changes are: mining and quarrying industry (48.52%), oil refining and alcohol products (36.96%), other chemicals (30.55%) and basic metals (27.37%). The most influential sectors were: oil refining and alcohol products (3.12 p.p.), mining and quarrying industry (2.67 p.p.), other chemicals (2.45 p.p.) and basic metals (1.79 p.p.).

The cumulative index in 12 months was 35.69% (another record figure in the series). The four biggest changes took place in mining and quarrying industry (125.48%), oil refining and alcohol products (91.25%), other chemicals (48.31%) and basic metals (46.23%). The sectors accounting for the main contributions were: food products (7.39 p.p.), oil refining and alcohol products (6.44 p.p.), mining and quarrying industry (5.31 p.p.) and other chemicals (3.98 p.p.).

The price change (1.89%) against march had an impact on the major economic categories: 1.16% on capital goods; 2.47% on intermediate goods; and 1.06% on consumer goods, with 1.34% being the change observed in durable consumer goods and 1.01% in semi and non-durable goods.

The influence of economic categories on IPP resulted in: 0.08 p.p. for capital goods; 1.44 p.p. for intermediate goods and 0.37 p.p. for consumer goods. As for consumer goods, 0.08 p.p. was due top rice changes in durable consumer goods and 0.29 p.p. in semi-durable and non-durable goods.

In terms of cumulative index in the year (16.08%), capital goods recorded a change of 8.61% (with a share of 0,63 p.p.); intermediate goods, of 22.71% (12.65 p.p.) and consumer goods, of 7.56% (2.80 p.p.). This last result was a compound contribution from durable consumer goods (0.35 p.p.) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (2,45 p.p.).

In the April 2021/April 2020 comparison, price change in industry reached 35.69%, with the following changes: capital goods, 16.94% (1.34 p.p.); intermediate goods, 46.53% (25.37 p.p.); and consumer goods, 23.90% (8.98 p.p.), being the share of durable consumer goods of 0.98 p.p. and that of semi and non-durable goods, of 7.99 p.p. See the highlights below:

Mining and quarrying industry: in April, prices in the sector changed, on the average, by -0.70%, first negative result in the year. As a result, the cumulative index in the year (48.52%) and in 12 months (125.48%) were lower than in March (49.57% and 136.25%, respectively).

Highlight was given to the since it is among the most significant results, both in terms of change and of influence in comparisons between April 2021 and December 2020 and December 2020 and April 2020. In terms of change, it is the highest in both cases; in terms of influence, it is the second, cumulative in the year (2.67 p.p., out of 16.08%) and the third one considering the cumulative index in 12 months (5.31 p.p., out of 35.69%).

Food products:in April, the change in prices reached 1.53%, slightly above the average in Q1, 1.51%. It is worth mentioning that from April 2020 to April 2021, only at two moments were month-on-month changes negative: June, -0.73%, and December -1.05%. With four positive changed in the year, the cumulative index in 2021 reached 6.20% and, in 12 months, 30.19%. The cumulative index up to April, in 2020 (6.37%), was bigger than the current one. On the other hand, the cumulative result in 12 months decreased against March (30.73%).

The sector accounted for the second biggest contribution, of 0.36 p.p, Against March (1.89%), among all the activities of industry, and for the biggest one cumulative in 12 months, 12 months, 7.39 p.p., out of 35.69%. The sector was also responsible for the main contribution to the overall figure (23.50%).

In the monthly change, the highlights in terms of change and of influence, were different, and only a product, “margarine”, is part of both lists. In terms of influence: “frozen poultry meat and giblets” is number two (8.99%); “crude degummed soybean oil number seven (4.42%); “margarine” is number eleven (2,56%); and “fresh or chilled beef” is number one (12.59%). Among the 43 products in the sector, the four biggest contributions previously listed accounted for 1.08 p.p. of the 1.53% rate. Considering that, from March to April, the real appreciated against the dollar (1.5%), pressure for higher prices was due to market-related movements. So, about the most influential products, it is worth mentioning that the strong domestic and foreign demand for soybean oil and the increase in the prices of raw material are relevant in the movement of prices.

Oil refining and alcohol products in April, prices in the sector fell, on the average, 0.55%, first decrease since September (-2.83%). With this result, the cumulative index in the year went from 37.72% to 36.96%. The cumulative index in 12 months reached its most significant change, 91.25%. It is worth mentioning that the comparison of the last 12 months involved the second highest index number in the series (155.70), and that of April 2021, versus the second lowest since December 2018 (base of the series, so, equals to 100), that of April 2020 (81.41).

Highlight was given to the sector due to both average price changes in products, the second time cumulative in the year and in the last 12 months, and the overall result of industry: the first cumulative index in the year (3.12 p.p., out of 16.08%) and the second in M/M-12 (6.44 p.p., out of 35.69%).

In the list of products with most significant price changes there are items with positive changes, whereas in the influence list, only “aviation kerosene” stands out and has a positive change. The two main products in the sector, “diesel” (40.74%) and “gasoline, except for aviation” (23,05%), had a negative price change. It is worth mentioning the four most influential products accounted for -1.07 p.p., out of -0.55%.

Other chemicals: chemical industry, in April, increased by 4.54% from March, tenth consecutive increase and smallest positive change of this activity in the year. That way, the sector had a cumulative positive change of 30.55% in the year and 48.31% in the last 12 months, both being the highest indexes in their series.

The results observed in the last few months are mainly related to international prices and the rise of prices of several type of raw material – whether imported or not -, such as naphtha; also important is the appreciation of our currency against the dollar.

In terms of economic groups of activity, a highlight was the change observed in “manufacture of resins and elastomers”, with 9.43% in the month, with a cumulative 49.78% in the year and 110.40% of change in 12 months. “Manufacture of inorganic chemical products” recorded a change of 1.04% in the month, reaching 30.66% in the year and 39.03% cumulative in 12 months. Finally, in the group “manufacture of agricultural pesticides and disinfectants for domestic use” o the result was 4.29% in the month, with a cumulative 9.95% in the year and 16.72% in the period of 12 months.

The four most influential products affecting the monthly result (2.15 p.p. out of 4.54%) were: “polypropylene (PP)”, “high-density polyethylene (PEAD)”, “low density polypropylene (PEBD)” and “linear polyethylene, below 0.94 density”. The other 35 products in this activity accounted for 2.39 p.p. of the 4.54% in the sector.

Basic metals: from March to April, there was an increase of 4.97%, tenth positive change in a row in this activity. With this result, the basic metals sector had a cumulative change of 27.37% in the year and of 46.23%, in the last 12 months. The monthly change, in spite of being at almost 5%, was the lowest in the year. So, cumulative changes in the year and in 12 months were the biggest in the entire IPP series, which started in January 2010.

The three most relevant products to the month’s and year’s result were: “galvanized or chrome coils or steel plates”, “uncoated hot-rolled steel carbon coil” and “aluminum plates and strips more than 0.2 mm thick”, the first two products were highlights, including in terms of the change in 12 months. “uncoated cold-rolled steel carbon coil ” was the highlight in the year and “carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates”, in the cumulative index in the year and cumulative in 12 months. Finally, “carbon steel rods” was a highlight in terms of influence in the cumulative index in 12 months.

The basic metal sector was a highlight with the third biggest change of prices in the month and the fourth biggest price change in the year and in 12 months. In terms of influence that was the third biggest in the month and the fourth cumulative in the year. The sector is also the fourth biggest contribution to the result among the 24 activities, with 7.17%.

Metal produtcs: the manufacture of metal products recorded an average price change of 5.96% in April, against the previous month. That was the 15th consecutive positive rate in this indicator, besides being the main increase in the entire series, which started in January 2010. As a result, the activity had a cumulative increase of 17.18%, also the biggest change in this indicator in the entire series, for the month of April. And considering the cumulative index in the last 12 months: once again the highest result in the series: 30.04%.

The sector, which had not been one of the highlights since November 2018, stands out again due to its results in the M/M-1 indicator: that was the biggest change and the fourth main influence (0.16 p.p. out of 1.89%) among all the sectors in mining and quarrying industry and manufacturing industry analyzed in the survey.

The most influential products affected the results M/M-1 and cumulative in the year are common, all of them with a positive impact on the indicators: “laminated metals of any shapes”, “aluminum cans for packaging”, “iron and steel screws and other threaded artifacts” and “iron and steel structures, plates or other shapes”. These four products, together, amounted to 3.46 p.p. in the indicator M/M-1 (5.96%). That is, the other 21 products in this activity accounted for 2.50 p.p.

In terms of the main influences on the cumulative indicator in 12 months, three of the four products are repeated. The difference is that “iron and steel frames”, also with a positive impact on the index, “iron and steel screws and other threaded artifacts”. The increase observed in April, as well as in the last few months, results mainly from the bigger production costs.