In July 2020, 12 of the 15 areas surveyed recorded positive rates in industrial production against June figures, in the seasonally adjusted series. The main increases were those of Ceará (34.5%) and Espírito Santo (28.3%).

The Northeast Region (17.5%), Amazonas (14.6%), Bahia (11.1%), Santa Catarina (10.1%), Pernambuco (9.5%), Minas Gerais (9.2%) and São Paulo (8.6%) also recorded advances above the national average (8.0%).

Mato Grosso (-4.2%) recorded the most significant decrease, partially counterbalancing the cumulative increase of 8.2% of May and June. Paraná (-0.3%) and Goiás (-0.3%) registered the other negative results in the month.

Data comes from the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) - Regional edition.

Short-Term Indicators of Industry - Regional Results - July 2020

The 8.0% increase of industrial activity from June to July 2020, in the seasonally-adjusted series, there is a widespread profile of positive results reaching 12 of the 15 areas surveyed. Their behavior reflects, to a great extent, the resumption of production after interruptions due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ceará (34.5%) and Espírito Santo (2.3%) registered the most significant increases; the former had its third straight positive rate and a cumulative increase of 92.5% in the period, and the later advanced 28.6% in two consecutive months of production increase.

Northeast Region (17.5%), Amazonas (14.6%), Bahia (11.1%), Santa Catarina (10.1%), Pernambuco (9.5%), Minas Gerais (9.2%) and São Paulo (8.6%) also recorded increases above the national average (8.0%), whereas Rio de Janeiro (7.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (7.0%) and Pará (2.1%) completed the group of areas with positive indexes in July. On the other hand, Mato Grosso (-4.2%) recorded the main increase in the month, and counterbalanced part of cumulative increase 8.2% in the months of May and June. Paraná (-0.3%) and Goiás (-0.3%) recorded the main negative results.  

The quarterly moving average index increased by 8.8% in the quarter ended July 2020 against the previous month and interrupted the predominantly downward trend initiated November 2019. It is worth mentioning the expansion observed in the month was the most significant since the start of the time series.

In this comparison, the fifteen areas surveyed recorded positive rates this month, with a highlight to the most significant advances in the month, with a highlight to the most significant decreases in Amazonas (30.4%), Ceará (26.8%), Northeast Region (13.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.8%), Pernambuco (11.2%), São Paulo (9.7%), Santa Catarina (8.8%), Paraná (8.7%), Minas Gerais (7.5%), Bahia (7.1%) and Espírito Santo (6.7%).

Against the same month a year ago, industry recorded a decrease by 3.0%, with eight of the fifteen areas surveyed recording negative results. It is worth mentioning that July 2020 (23 days) had the same number of business as in 2019 (23).

Espírito Santo (-13.4%) and Paraná (-9.1%) recorded the most significant decreases. Pará (-7.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-7.5%), Bahia (-5.7%), Santa Catarina (-4.9%), Mato Grosso (-4.4%) and São Paulo (-3.3%) completed the group of areas with decrease in production.

On the other hand, Pernambuco (17.0%) recorded the most significant increase in the month. Amazonas (6.0%), Goiás (4.0%), Ceará (2.7%), Minas Gerais (1.5%), Rio de Janeiro (1.0%) and Northeast Region (0.9%) recorded the other positive rates in the month.

In the period May-July 2020, industry fell 11.2%, and contributed to the 8.3% decrease observed in the first four-month period this year, both comparisons against the same period a year ago.

In regional terms, 11 of the 15 areas surveyed also recorded lower increase rates in the period, with a highlight to Pará (from 5.2% to -9.0%), Bahia (from -1.8% to -13.7%), Espírito Santo (from -15.3% to -25.6%), Rio de Janeiro (from 6.1% to -2.9%), Ceará (from -14.3% to -23.1%), besides the Northeast Region (from -5.0% to -11.9%) and Paraná (from -6.3% to -11.4%).

On the other hand, Mato Grosso (from -4.2% to 1.5%), Goiás (from -1.0% to 3.9%), Minas Gerais (from -11.2% to -6.6%) and Pernambuco (from -2.6% to 1.9%) recorded increases between the two periods.  

Regarding the cumulative index in the year, against 2019, there was decrease in 13 of the 15 areas surveyed, with a highlight to com Espírito Santo (-19.7%), Ceará (-18.2%) and Amazonas (-15.9%). Rio Grande do Sul (-14.5%), Santa Catarina (-13.4%) and São Paulo (-12.4%) recorded rates above the national average (-9.6%), whereas Minas Gerais (-9.2%), Paraná (-8.6%), Northeast Region (-8.0%), Bahia (-7.1%), Pará (-2.0%), Mato Grosso (-1.5%) and Pernambuco (-0.7%) completed the group of areas with decrease in the cumulative production index in the year.

Rio de Janeiro (2.1%) and Goiás (1.7%) recorded increases in terms of the cumulative index in the period January-July 2020.

The cumulative index in 12 months, with a decrease of 5.7% in July 2020, recorded the biggest decrease since December 2016 (-6.4%) and remained on deceleration against the results of previous months.

In regional terms, 13 of the 15 areas surveyed recorded negative rates in July 2020, had smaller increase against the indexes of last June. Paraná (from -2.2% to -3.6%), Pará (from 0.4% to -0.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (from -8.9% to -9.7%), Santa Catarina (from -7.5% to -7.9%) and Rio de Janeiro (from 4.4% to 4.1%) recorded losses between June and July, whereas Pernambuco (from -3.9% to -2.0%), Northeast Region (from -6.1% to -5.4%), Minas Gerais (from -8.8% to -8.1%) and Amazonas (from -5.4% to -4.8%) accounted for the main increases between the two periods.