The March 2020 estimate for the national crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds fell in relation to the last estimate, but remains a record in the IBGE time series, reaching 245.2 million metric tons, 1.5% higher than that of 2019 (241.5 million metric tons). The decline of 3.9 million metric tons represents a decrease of 1.6% in relation to the previous month.

The area to be harvested was 64.3 million hectares, an increase of 1.7% compared to the area harvested in 2019, an increase of 1.1 million hectares. In relation to the previous month, the area to be harvested is 57.9 thousand hectares less (-0.1%). Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which, together, represent 93.1% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2019, there were increases of 1.9% in the corn area (increase of 4.4% in the first crop and increase of 1.0% in the second), 2.4% in the soybean area and 1.1 % for the area of upland cotton, but a 1.6% decline for rice.

In terms of production, the forecast is an increase of 6.4% for soybeans and 3.6% for rice, but decreases of 3.5% for corn (+ 1.4% in the first crop and -5.2% in the second) and 2.1% for upland cotton. In absolute numbers, 120.7 million metric tons of soybeans, 97.0 million metric tons of corn, 10.6 million metric tons of rice and 6.7 million metric tons of cotton are expected.

In relation to the previous month, the estimates in the production of cacao nuts (17.7% or 42.4 thousand metric tons), coffea canephora (4.0% or 35.3 thousand metric tons), rice (2.5% or 259.7 thousand metric tons), barley grain (2.5% or 9.0 thousand metric tons), corn 2^nd crop (1.8% or 1.2 million metric tons), oat (1.5% or 13.6 thousand metric tons) and wheat (1.2% or 57.7 thousand metric tons) increased.

However, there was decrease in the production estimates of potato 3^rd crop (-0.8% or 7.2 thousand metric tons), sorghum (-1.2% or 31.4 thousand metric tons), bean 2^nd crop (-1.4% or 17.8 thousand metric tons), potato 2^nd crop (-1.4 or 16.7 thousand metric tons), bean 3^rd crop (-1.8 or 8.5 thousand metric tons), potato 1^st crop (-2.0% or 33.4 thousand metric tons), corn 1^st crop (-2.7% or 733.8 thousand metric tons), soybeans (-3.6% or 4.5 million metric tons), tomatoes (-3.7% or 146.4 thousand metric tons), upland cotton (-3.8% or 268.7 thousand metric tons) and grapes (-5.7% or 87.8 thousand metric tons); in addition to coffea arabica (0.0% or 354 metric tons) and bean 1^st crop (-0.3% or 4.3 thousand metric tons) which remained quite stable.

Mato Grosso remained as the biggest national grain producer with a share of 28.1%, followed by Paraná (15.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.5%), Goiás (10.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.1%) and Minas Gerais (6.0%), which together accounted for 79.5% of the national forecast. Among the Brazilian Regions, the production volume distribution of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was: Central-West, 115.1 million metric tons (46.9%); South, 75.0 million metric tons (30.6%); Southeast, 24.1 million metric tons (9.8%); Northeast, 20.7 million metric tons (8.5%) and North, 10.2 million metric tons (4.2%). Among the Major Regions, the production increased in Central-West (3.2%), North (4.3%), Northeast (8.1%) and Southeast Regions (1.4%). The South Region presented a drop of 2.9%.

The positive changes in the production estimates took place in Mato Grosso (1,965,947 t), Paraná (560.8 thousand metric tons), Piauí (177.2 thousand metric tons), Goiás (152.5 thousand metric tons), Pará (86.9 thousand metric tons), Federal District (77.5 thousand metric tons), Pernambuco (76.6 thousand metric tons), Ceará (24.2 thousand metric tons) and Espírito Santo (979 metric tons). And the negative changes in: Rio Grande do Sul (6.9 million metric tons), Bahia (85.4 thousand metric tons), Maranhão (28.7 thousand metric tons), Santa Catarina (3.6 thousand metric tons) and Rio de Janeiro (1.1 thousand metric tons).

Highlights in March 2020 estimate

UPLAND COTTON (seed) – The third production estimate of cotton was 6.7 million metric tons, 3.8% below the February forecast. In Mato Grosso, biggest producer in the country, the production estimate was 4.6 million metric tons (-2.4% against the last estimate). Bahia, the second biggest producer, estimates to produce 1.4 million metric tons (-9.2% against February). Compared to 2019, the national cotton production decreased 2.1%. Mato Grosso should harvest 0.6% less, and Bahia -7.6%.

PADDY RICE – The production estimate, of 10.6% million metric tons, increased 2.5% in relation to last month. The most significant reviews of the production were found in Rio Grande do Sul (+2.5% or 185.1 thousand metric tons) and Santa Catarina (+5.8% or 62.1 thousand metric tons), which accounted for more than 80% of the production and should reach 7.5 and 1.1 million metric tons, respectively. The production estimate of Tocantins did not change in relation to last month: 653.7 thousand metric tons. The production estimate of Mato Grosso should reach 377.7 thousand metric tons (+3.1% against last month). Maranhão and Paraná production should reach 157.8 and 140.6 thousand metric tons, respectively, with the first growing 2.4% and the second decreasing 8.4%.

In relation to 2019, the production estimate of rice is 3.6% higher, even with the drop of 2.5% in the planted area and of 1.6% in the area to be harvested.

POTATOES - The Brazilian production should reach 3.8 million metric tons, decrease of 1.5% against the previous month. In relation to 2019, the production dropped 2.1%.

The 1^st crop, with a production of 1.7 million metric tons, shows a decline of 2.0% in relation to last month. The Rio Grande do Sul production was 334.1 thousand metric tons, decreasing 9.6% against the previous month, due to the long drought.

The estimate production for the 2^nd crop was 1.2 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.4% compared to the previous month. In Paraná, the estimate production fell 4.5%.

Regarding the 3^rd crop, the estimate is 937.8 thousand metric tons, a decline of 0.8%. The biggest negative change was reported by Goiás (-3.5%), which should produce 201.9 thousand metric tons, a drop of 3.5%.

CACAO NUT – The production estimate is 281.2 thousand metric tons, growing 17.7% in relation to the previous month. The average yield is 12.5% higher. In Pará and Bahia, which are the biggest producers (94.0% of the total), there was a review in the production estimate with an increase of 27.1% and of 10.9%, respectively. In Pará, the area to be harvested shows a growth of 16.6% while the average yield increased 9.0%. In Bahia, there was an increase of 1.2% in the area to be harvested and of 9.5% in the average yield. In relation to the previous year, the cacao nut production is 11.4% higher, increasing 2.0% in the area to be harvested and 9.1% in the average yield.

COFFEE (bean) – The Brazilian production estimate was 3.5 million metric tons, or 57.6 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 1.0% against last month. In relation to the previous year, the production estimate was 15.4% higher.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was 2.5 million metric tons, or 42.3 million 60-kg sacks, remaining stable in relation to the previous month. In comparison with 2019, the production estimate of coffea arabica increased 22.3%. In Minas Gerais, the biggest producer (74.0% of the total), the production estimate shows an increase of 26.4%, with the average yield increasing 20.2% against the previous year. The production was estimate in 1.9 million metric tons, or 31.2 million 60-kg sacks. In São Paulo, the production estimate grew 6.6% in relation to 2019, with an expected harvest of 282.5 thousand metric tons, or 4.7 million 60-kg sacks. The average yield should increase 4.8%.

For coffea canephora, also known as conillon, the production estimate, of 920.5 thousand metric tons, or 15.3 million 60-kg sacks, shows an increase of 4.0% against the previous month. The production estimate is 5.9% higher in Espírito Santo (68.8% of the national total), due to an equal increase in the average yield. The production estimate for Rondônia was 150.9 thousand metric tons, and for Bahia 106.6 thousand metric tons, both keeping the February forecast unchanged.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, oat and barley. The production estimate of wheat was 4.9 million metric tons, increasing 1.2 in relation to the previous month. In comparison with the previous year, the estimate is 6.5% lower.

The South Region accounts for 85.6% of the national wheat production. Rio Grande do Sul’s production, of 1.9 million metric tons, increased 3.3% against last month, with the average yield growing by the same amount. In Paraná, the production was estimated at 2.1 million metric tons and, in Santa Catarina, at 155.1 thousand metric tons, keeping the same estimates of the previous month. In the Southeast, of 460.0 thousand metric tons (MG with 190.7 thousand metric tons and SP with 269.3 thousand metric tons). In the Central-West, the biggest productions are from Goiás, with 171.1 thousand metric tons and Mato Grosso do Sul, with 51.4 thousand metric tons.

The production estimate of oat was 917.3 thousand metric tons, 1.5% higher than last month. The biggest producers of oat are Rio Grande do Sul, with 632.6 thousand metric tons, and Paraná, with 176.7 thousand metric tons. In relation to 2019, the production should increase 0.6%.

For barley, the estimate production is 376.0 thousand metric tons, increasing 2.5% in relation to the last month. The main producers of barley are Paraná, with 244.0 thousand metric tons, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 117.0 thousand metric tons. In comparison with the previous year, the production of barley should decrease 6.1%.

BEAN (in seed) – The total national production estimate was 3.1 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.0% in relation to the previous month. The main producers, including the three crops, are Paraná (24.7% of the national total), Minas Gerais (16.2%) and Goiás (10.9%). In relation to the annual change, the estimate production increased 0.5%.

The 1^st crop of beans is estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, a decline of 0.3% against February, which accounted for 4.2 thousand metric tons. Positive highlights to Pernambuco, with an increase of 43.1% and Ceará, with 8.0%. The results are based on the increase of the average yield, which was 45.4% for Pernambuco and 10.4% for Ceará. The negative highlights were Santa Catarina (-14.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-10.3%), both with a forecast of decrease in the average yield of 15.1% and 11.0%, respectively. There were increases of 4.1% in the production estimate, in relation to the previous year.

The 2^nd crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, with a reduction of 1.4% against February. Mato Grosso stood out this month with a decrease of 8.4% in the production estimate. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná also had decreases of 6.7% and 2.1% in the production, respectively. Positive highlight to Santa Catarina that forecasts an increase of 6.7% in its production estimate. Regarding the annual change, the production estimate shows a rise of 7.7% in relation to 2019.

Regarding the 3^rd crop of beans, the production estimate was 461.4 thousand metric tons, a decline of 1.8% against February. The planted area also had its estimate reduced by 1.7%. Mato Grosso is the Federation Unit with the biggest influence in this result, as the estimates show a decrease of 6.7% in the planted area, of 0.2% in the average yield and of 6.9% in the production. In relation to the previous year, the production estimate decreased 21.6%.

TOBACCO LEAVES – The national production was estimated at 699.4 thousand metric tons, a decrease of 6.1% against the previous year, with a drop of 5.7% in the productivity. The lack of rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, the national biggest producer, was the main cause of this fall. The average yield dropped 14.9% in relation to February released data. Rio Grande do Sul estimated production was 291.4 thousand metric tons, a reduction of 15.5%, and yet it accounts for almost 41.7% of the national harvest. The South Region is responsible for almost 96.5% of the national production.

CORN GRAIN – In relation to the previous piece of  information, the production estimate increased 0.5%, totaling 97.0 million metric tons. In comparison to the previous year, production is 3.6 million metric tons smaller.

The 1^st crop accounts for 27.2% of the Brazilian 2020 production, and the 2^nd crop, for 72.8%. In the corn 1^st crop, the production reached 26.3 million metric tons, a drop of 2.7% against the previous month. In relation to 2019, the production was 1.4% higher.

The production reported by Rio Grande do Sul, of 4.6 million metric tons, fell 21.3% in comparison with last month. In relation to the previous year, the production is 19.3% lower. In Paraná, the production of 3.5 million metric tons increased 4.4% against March.

In the Northeast, there was an increase of 6.2% in the production in relation to the previous month, with highlight to Piauí, where the estimate grew 12.9%, producing 2.1 million metric tons.

For the 2^nd crop, the production estimate was 70.7 million metric tons, 1.8% higher than the previous month. The biggest increases in the production estimate, against the previous month, were observed in Mato Grosso (4.0% or 1,171,015 metric tons), Paraná (0.7% or 81,500 metric tons), Federal District (13.4% or 31,488 metric tons) and Pernambuco (51.2% or 9,974 metric tons). For the Federation Units that are part of the “MATOPIBA” area, only Piauí reviewed its production estimate, reporting a reduction of 10.9%.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The third production estimate for 2020 accounted 120.7 million metric tons, an increase of 6.4% against the previous harvest. In the monthly update, there was a reduction of 3.6% in the harvest volume, due to the influence of the data collected in Rio Grande do Sul in March, which reported a decrease of 5.9 million metric tons. And yet, the national production estimate for the year is higher than the record reported in 2018, which was of 117.9 million metric tons.

Rio Grande do Sul production should have a share of 11.1% of the country forecast, with a significant influence in the national production. The spotty rainfall in the south of Brazil also affected Santa Catarina, causing a retraction of 3.6% in the average yield and of 3.5% in the state production.

In contrast, Mato Grosso, which in 2020 should account for 28.8% of the soybean volume to be produced by the country, estimates to harvest 34.7 million metric tons, an increase of 2.6% compared to the previous month. The forecast is a rise of 7.6% in the production of the 2020 harvest, in relation to the previous year.

Paraná, second biggest national producer, also reported an increase of the average yield of 1.7% against February. This review had a direct impact on the state production volume, which should account for 20.8 million metric tons, growing 28.7% in comparison with the previous harvest.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The production estimate was 2.7 million metric tons, a fall of 1.2% in relation to the previous month. In the Central-West Region, Goiás decreased its production estimate by 2.2%. With a production of 1.3 million metric tons, it is the biggest Brazilian producer, contributing with 46.6% to the national forecast.

Positive highlight to the Northeast Region with an increase of 8.0% in the production estimate, influenced, especially, by Piauí (+36.5%), Ceará (+83.6%) and Pernambuco (+102.0%). The production estimate of sorghum was 3.7% higher than 2019, affected by the average yield increase, forecasted as 4.0%.

Several Federation Units increased their production estimates, in relation to 2019, among them: Ceará (150.0%), Pernambuco (104.9%), Bahia (22.7%), Mato Grosso (15.2%) and Goiás (14.4%).

TOMATOES – The production should reach 3.8% million metric tons, a decrease of 3.7% in relation to what as released in February. The production drop happened in several Federation Units, such as Goiás (-9.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.7%), Pernambuco (-2.0%), Ceará (-1.7%), Paraná (-10.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (-2.6%). In relation to the previous year, the production drop reached 6.9%, with a decrease of 6.5% in the planted area.

GRAPES – The production estimate was 1,452.1 thousand metric tons, a fall of 5.7% against the previous month. In Rio Grande do Sul, there was a drop of 10.5% in the grapes production estimate, with a drop in the average yield of 10.8%. Rio Grande do Sul production accounted for 51.5% of the national production. The vines were harmed by the extensive droughts that happened in Serra Gaúcha, resulting in a harvest with many dry fruits, smaller grape bunches, as well as possible losses of vineyards in the most affected areas.