Having reached 249.0 million tonnes, the February 2020 estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds hit another record in the IBGE´s time series, 3.1% higher than in 2019 (241.5 million tonnes) and rising 0.9% (+2.3 million tonnes) over the previous month. The area to be harvested was 64.4 million hectares, increasing 1.8% against 2019 (+1.2 million hectares). The area to be harvested rose 69.2 thousand hectares (0.1%) in relation to the previous month.

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, represented 93.2% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2019, the area for corn increased 1.4% (increase of 3.9% in the first crop and increase of 0.5% in the second crop), the area for soybeans, 2.6% and the area for upland cotton, 5.8%, while the area for rice declined 2.3%.

In the output, rises of 10.4% for soybeans, 1.0% for rice, 1.8% for cotton and drop of 4.0% for corn (increase of 4.2% in the first crop and decrease of 6.9% in the second one) were expected. Soybeans had another record estimate: 125.2 million tonnes. The estimate for corn was of 96.5 million tonnes. The expected output for rice was of 10.4 million tonnes and, for cotton, another record: 7.0 million tonnes.

In relation to the previous month, the estimates in the production of coffea canephora (3.9% or 33.3 thousand tonnes), sorghum (1.7% or 46.0 thousand tonnes), soybeans (1.5% or 1.9 million tonnes), sugarcane (0.7% or 4.5 million tonnes), beans- 1st crop (0.7% or 8.7 thousand tonnes), corn - 2nd crop (0.4% or 280.4 thousand tonnes), corn - 1st crop (0.3% or 71.1 thousand tonnes), and coffea arabica (0.0% or 834 tonnes) increased. Beans - 2nd crop (-0.9% or 11.1 thousand tonnes) and cassava (-1.8% or 355.2 thousand tonnes) dropped.

Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 26.9%, followed by Paraná (15.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (14.1%), Goiás (10.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.0%) and Minas Gerais (5.9%). These states together accounted for 81.0% of the national forecast. In relation to the participation of the Brazilian regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (45.3%), South (32.7%), Southeast (9.7%), Northeast (8.2%) and North (4.1%).

The steepest changes in the production estimates took place in Goiás (807.9 thousand tonnes), Paraná (782.4 thousand tonnes), Mato Grosso do Sul (341.8 thousand tonnes), Bahia (216.0 thousand tonnes), Pará (71.5 thousand tonnes), Sergipe (62.2 thousand tonnes), Ceará (475.0 tonnes) and Espírito Santo (234.0 tonnes).

Highlights in February 2020 estimate

COFFEE (grain) - The estimate of the Brazilian production of coffee was of 3.4 million tonnes or 57.0 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 14.2% over 2019. The output estimate was 1.0% higher in relation to the previous month.

The estimated production of coffea arabica was of 2.5 million tonnes or 42.3 million 60-kg sacks, remaining stable in relation to the previous month. It grew 22.3% over the last year, due to the biennial positive bearings, a physiologic characteristic of this species that alternates years of high and low output.

Accounting for 73.9% of the production in 2020, the output estimate in Minas Gerais, the largest producer state, increased 26.4% and the average yield should rise 20.2% over the previous year. The production was estimated at 1.9 million tonnes or 31.2 million 60-kg sacks.

In São Paulo, the second largest producer, the output should grow 6.6% over the previous year, a harvest of 282.5 thousand tonnes (4.7 million 60-kg sacks). The average yield should increase 4.8%. In Espírito Santo, the production estimate was of 202.0 thousand tonnes or 3.4 million 60-kg sacks.

The production estimate of 885.3 thousand tonnes for coffea canephora or 14.8 million 60-kg sacks declined 4.1% over the previous year. The output estimates were lower in Espírito Santo (-6.2%), Minas Gerais (-5.9%) and Bahia (-1.4%), and higher in Rondônia (4.1%).

SUGARCANE – The Brazilian output was should reach 674.3 million tonnes, representing a growth of 0.7% in relation to the previous month. São Paulo remained the biggest national producer with 341.8 million tonnes, accounting for 50.7% of the production. In February, the production estimate for Goiás grew 5.3% and the productivity reached 81,482 kg/ha, an increase of 5.0%. Having produced 77.9 million tonnes, this state was the second biggest Brazilian producer, with a share of 11.5% of the national overall.

Too rainy, the climate has been providing a fair development of the crops, which were in the middle of the vegetative growth phase. The output estimate grew 1.0% in Mato Grosso do Sul, mainly due to the increase of 1.5% in the planted and to be harvested areas. The output should reach 51.6 million tonnes. The production estimates decreased 1.0% over 2019 and the area destined to the harvest increased 1.0%. This increase was due to the renovation of most sugarcane crops.

BEAN SEED - The production was estimated at 3.1 million tonnes. Considering the three harvests, the largest producers in this survey were Paraná with 24.8%, Minas Gerais with 16.1% and Goiás with 10.8% of participation in the national production. In relation to the 2019 harvest, the total output of beans should be 1.5% higher, mostly due to the increase of 3.1% in the average yield, since a reduction of 1.6% was expected in the area to be harvested.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, an increase of 0.7% over the January estimate, which represented 8,728 tonnes. Having its production estimate increased by 4.4% (13,409 tonnes), Paraná positively stood out, as well as Goiás, which increased its estimate by 1.6% (1,647 tonnes). Having its output estimate declined by 40.2% (-6,358 tonnes), Pará negatively stood out.

The annual comparison for the first crop pointed out a rise of 4.5% in the estimated production, reflecting increases of 2.6% in the harvested area and of 1.8% in the average yield. Having its production estimate increased by 29.1% (+71,910 tonnes), Paraná positively stood out, as well as Piauí, which increased 29.0% (+22,227 tonnes). The negative highlights were Bahia, with a reduction of 20.6% (-35,520 tonnes) and Goiás, with a retreat of 4.1% (-4,550 tonnes).

An output of 1.3 million tonnes was estimated for the second crop of beans, a retreat of 0.9% or -11,067 tonnes over the previous month, following the reduction of 1.4% in the harvested area. Mato Grosso do Sul stood out negatively, as its production estimate reduced by 38.5% over January, which represented less 11,206 tonnes.

In Goiás, the production estimate increased 1.9% (1,550 tonnes). The output estimate of January for the second crop was higher than in 2019 by 9.2%. Paraíba (202.1%), Alagoas (85.7%), Bahia (56.6%) and Paraná (21.1%) stood out positively. The states which reduced their production estimates were Tocantins (11.3%), Minas Gerais (15.6%), São Paulo (34.7%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (41.8%).

A drop of 0.5% was expected for the production of the third crop of beans in relation to the previous month (-2,387 tonnes). Goiás was the state that mostly influenced this result, as the estimates pointed out a reduction of 1.6%. Estimated at 469.9 thousand tonnes, the third crop of beans was 20.1% lower than in 2019. The Federation Units responsible for the decrease were: Minas Gerais (8.6%), São Paulo (57.8%) and Mato Grosso (28.9%).

CASSAVA (root) - The estimate of the production of cassava was of 19.0 million tonnes, representing a decline of 1.8% over the previous month. The most significant reductions were registered in Pará (-5.8% or 237.0 thousand tonnes) and Paraná (-4.6% or 160.4 thousand tonnes). Not so attractive prices have been discouraging planting.

In the first crop of corn, the production reached 27.1 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% over the previous month. The output was 4.2% higher than in 2019, the planted area increased 2.3% and the average yield, 0.3%. The area to be harvested rose 3.9%.

For the second crop, the production estimate was of 69.4 million tonnes, 0.4% higher than in the previous month. The greatest growths in the production estimates, in relation to the previous month, were reported in Pará (5.6% or 18.0 thousand tonnes), Sergipe (10.7% or 61.8 thousand tonnes), Paraná (0.5% or 57.5 thousand tonnes) and Goiás (1.5% or 143.1 thousand tonnes). In this survey, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and the states that integrate “MATOPIBA” maintained the estimates reported last month.

The output of corn - 2nd crop retreated 6.9% in relation to 2019 and the average yield fell 7.4%. In 2019, the production of corn - 2nd crop was a record in the IBGE´s time series, due to the favorable weather, which did not happen in this agricultural year.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The second production estimate of soybeans for 2020 added up to 125.2 million tonnes, an increase of 10.4% over the previous harvest. If confirmed, the national output of soybeans will surpass the volume harvested in 2018, hitting a new record and representing more than half of the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds.                                                                                                                                                 

It represented an increase of 1.5% in the volume to be harvested compared with the first production estimate of soybeans for 2020, mainly impacted by the revision of the average yield of the crop in Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and Bahia.

After a retraction in 2019, a record harvested was expected in 2020. The average yield was estimated at 3,410 kg/ha, a value 7.6% higher than in 2019, when an excess of heat and a shortage of rainfall was noticed in Paraná, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, which impacted on the average yield of the crop that year.

The fair prices of this commodity along the last months of 2019 encouraged the producers to invest, which caused a rise of 2.6% in the area to be harvested, estimated at 36.7 million hectares, the highest one ever recorded in Brazil. Among the biggest national producers, Mato Grosso, which should account for 27.0% of the overall production in Brazil in 2020, expected to harvest 33.8 million tonnes, a growth of 4.9% over 2019. 

The attractive price of soybeans in the second quarter of 2019 was a key factor for the expansion of 2.4% in the planted area. The state average yield should also increase 2.4%, even with the delay of the rainfall in some regions during the planting time, which did not significantly affected the average productivity, which should reach 3,396 kg/ha.

As the second biggest producer, Paraná should produce 20.5 million tonnes, a rise of 26.5% over the previous harvest and increase the productivity by 25.3%. Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, which complete the ranking of the biggest national producers, adjusted the estimates of average yield in February by 4.5% and 3.0%, respectively.

This increase impacted on the estimated output, which should rise 14.2% in Goiás and 17.1% in Mato Grosso do Sul in 2020. Bahia and Pará were the other two states that posted significant adjustments in the output, with increases of 4.2% and 6.4%, respectively.

SORGHUM (grain) - The estimated production reached 2.7 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7% in relation to the previous month. This result was supported by the harvest in Goiás, which increased 6.0% this month, due to the larger cropped area.

The production grew 4.9% in relation to the previous year, with a highlight to the average yield, which should increase 5.1%. Mato Grosso do Sul and Bahia reduced their projections of output by 7.7% and 14.9%, respectively. The cropped area was the major variable that influenced this result, with decreases of 6.3% and 10.0%, respectively.

The biggest increases in the production estimates over the previous year were reported in Goiás, 17.0% or 186.4 thousand tonnes, being the biggest national producer, with a share of 47.2%;  Minas Gerais, 3.1% or 26.4 thousand tonnes; Mato Grosso, 28.7% or 39.3 thousand tonnes;  Bahia, 22.7% or 15.8 thousand tonnes; Tocantins, 6.5% or 3.2 thousand tonnes; Mato Grosso do Sul, 2.4% or 834 tonnes; and the Federal District, 40.0% or 9.6 thousand tonnes.