Industry prices changed 0.43% in February 2019, a result above that of January 2019 (-0.75%). Among the 24 activities surveyed, 11 registered positive price changes, just as in the the previous month. The present dissemination of the Producer Price Index (IPP) incorporates some updates, including enterprise sample expansion and change in the weight of the investigated products. The technical note on such aspects can be accessed here. The support material is on the right side.

Between January and February of 2019, the prices of the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries – overall industry – changed 0.43%, a figure above that reported in the comparison between January/2019 and December/18 (-0.75%). The four biggest changes took place among the products of the following industrial activities: mining and quarrying industries (7.97%), oil refining and ethanol products (4.22%), other chemicals (-1.85%) and pharmaceuticals (1.48%). The highest influences were: petroleum refining and ethanol products (0.40 pp), mining and quarrying industries (0.31 pp), other chemicals (-0.16 pp) and food (-0.12 pp).

In the cumulative index in the year(February 2019 against December 2018) the resultwas of       -0.33%, contra -0,75% em janeiro de 2019. The four biggest price changes were recorded in oil refining and ethanol products (5.42%), other chemicals (-5.02%), tobacco (-2.67%) and basic metals (-2.41%). The sector of higher influence in this indicator were: oil refining and ethanol products (0.50 pp), other chemicals (0.44 pp), food products (-0.34 pp) and  basic metals (-0.15 p.p.).

In the comparison between February 2019 with February 2018 , the prices changed 8.36% against 8.31% in January 2019. The four biggest price changes were recorded in mining and quarrying industries (22.02%), other transportation equipment (13.87%), oil refining and ethanol products (12.59%) and tobacco (11.24%). With update of the time series this month, it is not possible to determine the influence in this comparison yet.

Among the Major Economic Categories, in February, there was a price change of 0.43%, as it follows: 0.23% in capital goods; 0.64% in intermediate goods; and 0.16% in consumer goods, of which 0.18% in durable consumer goods and 0.16% in semi and non-durable consumer goods. And the influence of the Major Economic Categories was as follows: capital goods (0.02 pp); intermediate goods (0.35 pp); and consumer goods (0.06 pp), with the influence of durable consumer goods at 0.01 pp and of semi and non-durable consumer goods, 0.05 pp.

The following sectors stood out:

Mining and quarrying industries: in February, the prices of the mining and quarrying industries rose 7.97%, the first high after four months of decrease. The cumulative index of the year had a negative change (-0.23%). In relation to the previous year, there was a high of 22.02%, the biggest change observed for the general industry. The mining and quarrying industries contributed with 0.31 to the IPP of the general industry in relation to January (0.43%), and with -0.01 pp to the cumulative IPP of the year (-0.33%).

Food products: the prices of the sector, in the month to month comparison, changed on average -0.53%, the second negative result in a row. Therefore, the cumulative index in the year stood at -1.51% in February. Despite the negative results of the first two months of the year, February prices in 2019 were 6.86% bigger than those of February 2018, a result which is lower than the comparisons of January 2019/ January 2018 and December 2018/December 2017, 8.34% and 8.25%, respectively.

The food sector exerted the fourth major influence on the IPP in relation to January (-0.12 pp in 0.43%) and the third in the cumulative of the year (-0.34 pp at -0.33%). Just in December 2019, when the new series will have 13 pieces of information, it will be possible to calculate the influence in the comparison with the same month a year ago (M/M_-12). In terms of change and influence, two products stand out: "frozen beef" and "residues of soybean extraction", both with negative change.

The positive influence in the food sector came from "VHP sugar (very high polarization)".  The drop in the prices of soybean derivatives and of "frozen beef" are due to the Real appreciation in the month (of 0.5%). In the case of "VHP sugar", the increase is in line with the world market.

Petroleum refining and ethanol products: in February, the sector prices, against January, change 4.22%, the highest rate since September 2018 (7,43%).  As a result, the cumulative change up to February was of 5.42% and, in comparison with February 2018, of 12.59%. The sector was one of the five that influenced in all calculates indicators (of change and influence). Thus, in terms of change: it was the second biggest in relation to January, the first in the cumulative index and the third in the comparison with February 2018. In terms of influence, it was the first in relation to January (0.40 pp in 0.43%) and in the cumulative index (0.50 pp in -0.33%).

They are the same products highlighted in terms of change and influence, all of them with a positive change. The influence of the four products was of 4.27 pp in 4.22% (the remainder of the influence, 0,05, was due to the change seen in the other six products). One of the differences between the previous sample and the current one is considering "fuel oil, except diesel" and "diesel fuel" as two distinct products. In February, both stood out, but each one's weight in the calculation is different. "fuel oil, except diesel" weights 5.26% and "diesel fuel", 40.74% (the products' weights can be found here).

Other Chemicals: the chemical industry, in February, presented for the fourth month in a row a negative average change of prices: -1.85% in relation to January, which resulted, even so, on a cumulative index in the last 12 months of 9.94%, but on -5.02% of change in the year.

Both negative changes (month and year) made the activity lead the price drop among the 24 activities analyzed in the survey. The price reduction is very much related to the international results, the costs of imported raw-material and to the price drops in naphthas accumulated along the year. It is worth highlighting that the of the four biggest price changes of the activity in the month, three were negative, while three of the products which were a highlight in this type of comparison also stood out in terms of influence:  "benzene", "fungicides for agricultural purposes" and "propane (unsaturated propylene", the first two with negative results. The fourth product standing out in the price change was "unsaturated ethylene (ethane) and in relation to the influence of results on the month "manure or mineral or chemical phosphatic fertilizers", both with price decrease.

In relation to the cumulative results in the year, the four products of greatest influence registered negative figures: "manure or NPK fertilizers", "benzene", "fungicides for agricultural purposes" and "polypropylene (PP)". The four products that mostly influenced in the month-over-month comparison accounted for -0.61 pp in the result of the month (-1.85%). In other words, the other 35 products contributed with -1.24 pp.

Basic Metals: in the comparison between February 2019 and January 2019, the prices changed -0.73%, the fifth negative change in a row and the third biggest in the month among the activities that had price drops. In the cumulative index of the year, the basic metal sector had the third biggest reduction of prices in the IPP, -2.41%, and even so, the activity accumulated in the last 12 months a change of 8.13% (28th consecutive positive change in this type of indicator). The analysis of the index-numbers of the time series pointed out that the prices of this sector posted a cumulative change of 44.52% between December 2013 (base of the time series) and February 2019.

In the sector, the three products that most influences the results had price decrease: “aluminum plates, sheets and strip, of a thickness exceeding 0.2 mm”, “carbon steel hot-rolled coil, uncoated” and “aluminum oxide (calcined alumina)”. Conversely, with positive results, there comes "gold for non-monetary purposes". The four products represented -0.37% of the month's change, i. e., of the -0.73% change. Those four products represented more than half, while the other 20 products analyzed stood with -0.36 pp.

Of the four products standing out in influence, just one is also a highlight in change, "aluminum plates, sheets and strip, of a thickness exceeding 0.2 mm". The other highlights are: "unwrought non-alloy aluminum", "carbon steel cold-rolled coil, uncoated" and "copper and copper alloy bars, profiles and rebars", but jut the first two had negative changes.