In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output dropped 0.8% in January 2019 over December 2018, offsetting the positive change of 0.2% reported in the previous month. In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the industry fell 2.6% in relation to January 2018, after also retreating in November (-1.0%) and December 2018 (-3.6%).
The cumulative index over the last 12 months stayed at 0.5%, maintaining the loss of pace started in July 2018 (3.4%). The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry - PIM-PF can be accessed on the right side.

13 of 26 industrial sectors drop

After the decline of 0.8% in the industry between December 2018 and January 2019, three out of the four major economic categories and 13 out of the 26 sectors surveyed registered a drop in the output. Among the activities, the most significant negative influence was of pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (-10.3%), reversing the growth of 7.8% accumulated in November and December 2018. It is worth highlighting the negative results of mining and quarrying industries (-1.0%), machinery and equipment (-2.9%), pulp, paper and paper products (-2.6%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-0.8%), other transportation equipment (-5.1%), leather, traveling articles and footwear (-3.2%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-0.5%).

Industrial Output by Major Economic Category - Brazil - January 2019

Among the 13 sectors that increased, the most relevant performances came from: food products (1.5%), which, with the result of January 2018, accumulated 9.2% in three consecutive months of increasing output, offsetting part of the loss of 10.4% accumulated in the July-October 2018 period; beverages (6.1%), which stepped up the growth recorded in the previous month (1.2%); and other chemicals (3.6%), which offset part of the loss of 4.5% posted in the two last months of 2018.

Other important positive impacts were reported in the sectors of tobacco products (23.4%), fabricated metal products (3.2%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (3.7%) and textiles (4.0%).

Among the major economic categories, capital goods (-3.0%) registered the steepest drop in January over December 2018, its third negative result in a row, and accumulated a reduction of 10.2% in the period. Semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.4%) and intermediate goods (-0.1%) also retreated this month, the former reversing the advance of 0.4% of December 2018, when it interrupted a sequence of drops started in July 2018 (-3.9%); and the latter interrupting two consecutive months of rise, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 1.3%                                                                                                                             . On the other hand, durable consumer goods (0.5%) recorded the only positive rate, offsetting part of the loss of 5.2% accumulated in the last two months of 2018.

Quarterly moving average changes -0.2%

Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average for the industry changed -0.2% in the quarter ended in January 2019 against the level of the previous month, after changing 0.1% in December 2018, when it interrupted the downward trend started in August 2018.

Among the major economic categories, still in this comparison, capital goods (-3.5%) recorded the most intense drop in January 2019, in addition to the losses reported in November (-1.9%) and December 2018 (-2.4%). Durable consumer goods (-1.6%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) also retreated, both for the fifth consecutive month, and accumulated a reduction of 8.1% and 3.0%, respectively, in the period. Conversely, intermediate goods (0.4%) posted the only expansion in January 2019, the second consecutive advance in this comparison, accumulating 0.6% in this period.

Industry falls 2.6% in relation to January 2018

Compared with January 2018, the industry retreated 2.6% in January 2019, with drops in the four major economic categories, 18 out of the 26 sectors, 50 out of the 79 groups and 58.5% of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that January 2019 (22 days) had the same number of business days than the same month last year (22).

Among the activities, food products (-4.0%), pharmochemical and pharmaceuticals (-22.5%) and machinery and equipment (-10.3%) exerted the biggest negative influences, pressed, at a large extent, by the reduced manufacture of items cakes, bagasses, bran and other residues from the extraction of soybean oil, crystallized, VHP and refined sugar from sugarcane, concentrated orange juice, crude soybean oil, candies and gums, animal food and fresh or frozen poultry and giblets, in the first; medicines, in the second one; and machinery for the pulp sector, ball bearings, needles, cylinders or rollers for industrial equipment, harvesters and their parts and pieces, wall and window air conditioners (including split systems), tractors, motor graders, machinery for extracting and preparing oil, turbines and water wheels, machinery for the sector of plastic material, portable machines for drilling, sawing, chopping or screwing, parts and pieces of motors for industrial machinery and refrigerators, showcases, cold chambers and the like for industrial or trade use, in the last one.

Other relevant negative contributions came from: motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-3.7%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-10.2%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-14.2%), basic metals
(-2.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (-3.9%), wood products (-8.2%), other transportation equipment (-8.7%) and rubber and plastic products (-2.6%).

Still comparing with the same month in 2018, capital goods (-7.7%) and durable consumer goods (-5.5%) registered the steepest declines in January 2019 among the major economic categories. Semi and non-durable consumer goods (-2.9%) also dropped more than the national average (-2.6%), while the segment of intermediate goods (-1.3%) recorded the least intense negative rate.

Capital goods (-7.7%) posted the second drop in a row in January 2019, the most intense since October 2016 (-8.2%). This segment was influenced, at a large extent, by the drop in the group of capital goods for transportation equipment (-6.9%), mainly pressed by the reduced manufacture of vehicles for transportation of goods, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, airplanes and wagons for passengers and transportation of goods. The other drops were registered by capital goods for industrial use (-9.5%), for agriculture (-6.9%), for construction (-3.9%), for electricity (-0.9%) and for mixed use (-2.3%).

The segment of durable consumer goods retreated 5.5% in January 2019 over the same period a year ago, representing the third consecutive negative rate in this comparison, though with a slighter drop that that in the previous month (-13.6%). This month, the segment was particularly pressed by the reduced manufacture of cars
 (-3.8%) and brown goods (-13.6%). It is worth mentioning the declines reported by furniture (-5.1%) and other household appliances (-9.6%). On the other hand, the major positive impacts were in white goods (1.1%) and motorcycles (3.6%).

Still in this comparison, semi and non-durable consumer goods retreated 2.9% in January 2019, the third negative rate in a row and the most intense in this sequence. The performance this month was mainly due to the drop registered in non-durable (-9.2%), pressed, at a great extent, by the reduced manufacture of medicines. It is also worth mentioning the negative figures in the sub-sectors of fuels (-8.1%) and semi-durable (-2.8%), mostly influenced by the retreats recorded in the items motor gasoline and ethyl alcohol, in the former; and molded plastic footwear, women’s synthetic footwear, CDs, knitted trousers, breeches, bib and brace overalls, shorts and the like for women, carpet and other coverings for floors, DVDs, knitted apparel and its accessories for babies, cotton bathing suits, trousers and thermos, in the latter.

Conversely, the group of food and beverages for domestic consumption (1.0%) recorded the only positive rate in this category, mainly leveraged by the expansion in the production of beer, draft beer, ice cream and popsicles, soft drinks, frozen beef and chocolate candies or bars.

Intermediate goods fell 1.3% in January 2019 over January 2018, maintaining the negative behavior of the last four months of 2018: September (-2.8%), October
(-0.6%), November (-1.4%) and December (-2.7%). The result of this month was mainly explained by the retreats in the products associated with the activities of food products (-10.5%), machinery and equipment (-12.7%), basic metals (-2.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (-4.5%), rubber and plastic products (-1.8%), textiles (-3.6%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-0.2%), whereas the positive pressures were exerted by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.0%), fabricated metal products (5.5%), mining and quarrying industries (1.0%), other chemicals (0.4%) and non-metallic mineral products (0.2%).

It is also worth mentioning the results posted by the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (-0.3%), which registered the third consecutive drop, though the less intense in this sequence; and of packaging (2.3%), which grew once again after declining 2.6% in the previous month, when it interrupted six months of consecutive positive rates in this type of comparison.