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Retail sales retreat 2.2% in December, accrue rise of 2.3% in 2018

February 13, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 20, 2019 04h28 PM

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national retail trade dropped 2.2% in December 2018 over November, offsetting most of the advance of 3.1% registered in the previous month. As a result, the quarterly moving average remained stable (0.0%).

Period Retail Extended Retail
Volume of sales Nominal revenue Volume of sales Nominal revenue
December / November* -2.2 -3.4 -1.7 -1.9
Quarterly moving average* 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4
December 2018 / December 2017 0.6 3.9 1.8 4.5
Cumulative in 2018 2.3 4.8 5.0 7.0
Cumulative in 12 months 2.3 4.8 5.0 7.0
*Seasonally-adjusted series  

In the seasonally-unadjusted series, volume of sales of the retail trade increased 0.6% over December 2017. The cumulative index in the year was 2.3%.

The extended retail trade, which includes the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of Construction material, fell 1.7% in relation to November and the quarterly moving average changed -0.3%.

Compared with December 2017, volume of sales in the extended retail rose 1.8%, the twentieth positive rate in a row. The cumulative rate in the year in this comparison stayed at 5.0%, whereas the cumulative index over the last 12 months (5.0%) has been losing pace since April (7.0%). The publication and support material are on the right side of this page.

Five of eight activities drop between November and December

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the drop of 2.2% in volume of sales of theretail trade between November and December 2018 was followed by negative figures in five out of the eight activities surveyed. The retreats that mostly influenced the result of December came from Other articles of personal and domestic use (-13.1%), Furniture and domestic appliances (-5.1%) and Fabric, apparel and footwear (-3.7%). These sectors registered steep rises in November (8.3%, 4.2% and 1.7%, respectively), mainly due to the sales of Black Friday.

Still in this comparison, the sales in the sector of Office, computer and communication material and equipment fell (-5.5%), the fourth consecutive negative rate, whereas Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco remained relatively stable (-0.3%), after accruing a rise of 2.0% in the previous two months.

On the other hand, the highlights that advanced over November were Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (5.7%), Fuels and lubricants (1.4%) and Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (0.4%).

Volume of sales of the extended retail trade fell 1.7% in relation to November. Sales of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of Construction material declined -2.0% and -0.4%,respectively.

Compared with the same month last year, the retail trade advanced 0.6% in December 2018, with positive rates concentrated in three out of the eight activities surveyed. In order of positive contribution to the overall retail trade rate, the highlights were Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.5%), the sector with the biggest weight in the retail structure, followed by Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (7.2%) and Other articles of personal and domestic use (2.2%).

Table 1 - BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE, ACCORDING TO ACTIVITY GROUPS:
  December 2018
ACTIVITIES MONTH/PREVIOUS MONTH (1) MONTH/SAME MONTH IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR CUMULATIVE
Change Rate (%) Change Rate (%) Change Rate (%)
OCT NOV DEC OCT NOV DEC IN THE YEAR 12 MONTHS
RETAIL TRADE (2) -0.9 3.1 -2.2 1.9 4.5 0.6 2.3 2.3
1 - Fuels and lubricants -0.6 0.6 1.4 -5.3 -2.8 0.0 -5.0 -5.0
2 - Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco 0.1 1.9 -0.3 2.0 3.1 1.5 3.8 3.8
       2.1 - Supermarkets and hypermarkets 0.1 2.0 -0.1 2.0 3.6 1.9 4.0 4.0
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear -2.1 1.7 -3.7 4.1 5.2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
4 - Furniture and household appliances -2.5 4.2 -5.1 -1.8 1.5 -5.3 -1.3 -1.3
       4.1 - Furniture - - - -0.6 -1.0 -6.1 -3.3 -3.3
       4.2 - Household appliances - - - -2.2 2.7 -4.6 0.2 0.2
5 - Pharmaceuticals, medical, orthopedic and toiletries 0.8 2.6 0.4 6.7 7.6 7.2 5.9 5.9
6 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery -20.9 3.4 5.7 -29.9 -32.4 -24.6 -14.7 -14.7
7 - Office, computer and communication material and equipment -1.5 -0.4 -5.5 3.2 3.3 -3.3 0.1 0.1
8 - Other articles of personal and domestic use 0.7 8.3 -13.1 7.8 16.9 2.2 7.6 7.6
EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE (3) -0.3 1.3 -1.7 6.2 5.9 1.8 5.0 5.0
9 - Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces 0.0 -2.4 -2.0 20.1 12.7 7.8 15.1 15.1
10- Construction material 1.1 -1.0 -0.4 6.6 1.3 -0.6 3.5 3.5
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.      
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series.  (2) The indicator of the retail trade comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 8.  
(3) The indicator of the extended retail trade comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 10.        

Conversely, the major negative pressure in December came from Furniture and household appliances  (-5.3%), followed by Fabric, apparel and footwear (-1.6%), Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-24.6%) and Office, computer and communication material and equipment (-3.3%), whereas the sector of Fuels and lubricants (0.0%) remained stable after 17 negative rates in a row.

Having advanced 1.8% against December 2017, the extended retail trade posted the twentieth positive rate in a row. This result mainly reflected the good behavior of the sales of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (7.8%), followed by Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.5%), whereas Construction material, having retreated 0.6%, did not exert any statistically-relevant contribution to the overall result of the extended retail in December.

In the cumulative indicator for January-December 2018 against the same period a year ago, volume of sales of the retail trade advanced 2.3%, registering the second consecutive year of rising sales. This behavior was followed by three out of the eight activities of retail, right those that exerted the biggest impact on the 2018 result: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (3.8%), followed by Other articles of personal and household use (7.6%) and Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic goods and toiletries (5.9%). The sector of Office, computer and communication material and equipment (0.1%) closed the year nearly stable.

On the other hand, Fuels and lubricants (-5.0%) exerted the biggest negative impact, followed by Fabric, apparel and footwear (-1.6%), Furniture and domestic appliances (-1.3%) and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-14.7%). Having advanced 5.0% in the cumulative index in 2018, the extended retail trade registered the nineteenth positive rate in a row. This performance was mainly influenced by the activity of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (15.1%), the only activity with a two-digit growth, while Construction material closed 2018 accruing a change of 3.5%.

Having advanced 1.5% over December 2017, the sector of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco recorded the twentieth first consecutive positive rate in this comparison and exerted the biggest impact on the overall retail trade rate. As a result, the cumulative index in the year stayed at 3.8%. The performance of this activity has been benefited by the increase in the employed population and maintenance of the usual real wage bill along 2018.

Having posted the twentieth consecutive positive change compared with the same month last year, Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics rose 7.2% and gave the second biggest contribution to the retail rate. The cumulative rate in the year was 5.9%, representing a gain of pace in relation to the cumulative index up to November (5.7%). Beyond the above mentioned real wage bill, the behavior of the prices of pharmaceuticals along 2018 and their essential nature explained such performance.

Other articles of personal and domestic use, which encompasses segments like department stores, glasses shops, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores and toy stores, rose 2.2% in volume of sales in relation to December 2017, completing eight consecutive positive rates, being the last one that with the lowest magnitude. As a result, the sales in this sector accrued a rise of 7.6% in the year, the highest rate among the retail activities. Nevertheless, the pace was reduced in relation to the cumulative index up to November (8.4%).

Volume of sales of Furniture and household appliances fell 5.3% over December 2017 and exerted the most intense negative impact on the retail trade in December 2018. The cumulative index in the year retreated 1.3%. The negative behavior of this sector in 2018 was impacted by the high basis of comparison, since this activity registered steep rises in 2017, benefited by the release of the FGTS resources, which did not happen in 2018.

The sector of Fabric, apparel and footwear fell 1.6% over December 2017. The cumulative index in the year declined 1.6%. The negative behavior of this sector in 2018 was impacted, to a certain extent, by the high basis of comparison, since this sector advanced in 2017 benefited, at a great extent, by the release of free resources from the FGTS, a factor which was not present along 2018.

The segment of Office, computer and communication material and equipment dropped 3.3% in relation to December 2017, interrupting a series of four rises in a row. The cumulative rate in 2018 remained virtually stable (0.1%) against 2017.

The activity of Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery fell 24.6% in volume of sales against December 2017. The cumulative rate between January and December 2018 was -14.7%, representing the most intense retreat among the activities. The behavior of this activity was impacted by the closing down of bookstores in 2018, besides the impact of the continuous replacement of printed products by the electronic media, especially newspapers and magazines.

Having remained stable (0.0%) against December 2017, Fuels and lubricants interrupted a sequence of 17 consecutive negative rates. As a result, this sector accrues a drop of 5.0% between January and December, though with a gain in the pace compared with that accrued up to November (-5.4%). The price rise of fuels above the average change of prices was the relevant factor that has been influencing negatively the performance of the sector. 

Having registered 7.8% over December 2017, the sector of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces recorded the 20th consecutive positive rate, exerting the biggest contribution to the December´s result of the extended retail. As a result, this sector rose 15.1% in 2018. This performance was benefited by the funding of vehicles and launching of new models.

Having increased in October (6.6%) and November (1.3%), the segment of Construction material fell 0.6% in relation to December 2017. This segment rose 3.5% in the end of 2018, with a loss of pace in relation to that accrued up to November (3.9%).

Table 2 - BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF NOMINAL REVENUE OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE, ACCORDING TO ACTIVITY GROUPS:
December 2018
ACTIVITIES MONTH/PREVIOUS MONTH (1) MONTH/SAME MONTH IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR CUMULATIVE
Change Rate (%) Change Rate (%) Change Rate (%)
OCT NOV DEC OCT NOV DEC IN THE YEAR 12 MONTHS
RETIAL TRADE (2) 0.3 2.9 -3.4 6.7 8.5 3.9 4.8 4.8
1 - Fuels and lubricants 0.5 -2.2 -2.0 13.1 9.8 5.6 10.3 10.3
2 - Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco 0.9 2.4 -1.4 6.1 7.6 5.9 4.4 4.4
       2.1 - Supermarkets and hypermarkets 0.9 2.7 -1.5 5.9 7.8 6.0 4.5 4.5
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear -2.2 1.5 -3.3 4.9 5.4 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1
4 - Furniture and household appliances -1.6 5.2 -4.6 -0.5 4.5 -1.8 -1.4 -1.4
       4.1 - Furniture - - - 1.2 1.8 -3.0 -2.4 -2.4
       4.2 - Household appliances - - - -1.3 5.4 -1.3 -0.5 -0.5
5 - Pharmaceuticals, medical, orthopedic and toiletries 0.8 2.3 0.5 8.8 8.9 8.2 8.3 8.3
6 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery -21.4 4.7 6.5 -26.8 -29.2 -20.7 -11.7 -11.7
7 - Office, computer and communication material and equipment 0.0 -0.3 -4.4 1.9 1.3 -3.5 -3.7 -3.7
8 - Other articles of personal and domestic use 1.0 10.6 -15.6 9.4 17.6 2.8 8.5 8.5
EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE (3) -0.6 1.4 -1.9 9.9 9.2 4.5 7.0 7.0
9 - Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces -0.8 -1.5 -2.4 21.3 13.9 8.3 15.8 15.8
10- Construction material 1.3 -0.8 -0.2 11.0 5.0 3.2 6.5 6.5
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.      
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series.         

Volume of sales advances 2.2% in last quarter of 2018

In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the comparison with the same quarter of 2017 pointed out that the volume of the retail trade increased 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and represented the seventh consecutive quarter of rise in the sales, with a change above that of the third (1.1%) and second quarter (1.6%), though below the result of the first quarter of the year (4.3%), all of them compared with the same period a year ago.                                          

In the extended retail trade, volume of sales of the fourth quarter of 2018, compared with the same period of 2017, rose 4.4% and surpassed the change reported in the third quarter (4.0%). In the activity of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, the change was 13.4% in the fourth quarter, representing a reduction in the pace in relation to the other quarter of 2018, whereas the segment of Construction material posted a rate of 2.5% in the fourth quarter, representing an increase of pace over the third quarter (2.2%).

Sales fall in 26 of 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the drop in volume of sales of the retail trade between November and December 2018 (-2.2%) was followed by 26 out of the 27 Federation Units, highlighted by Acre (-12.6%), which posted the most intense negative change. Only Paraíba (0.4%) registered a positive change in volume of sales.

Still in this comparison, the extended retail trade retreated -1.7% in 23 out of the 27 Federation Units, also highlighted by the state of Acre (-7.9%). On the other hand, Roraima (0.9%), Paraíba (0.7%), Minas Gerais (0.2%) and Paraná (0.1%) advanced over November.