In October 2018, the national industrial production increased by 0.2% compared to September (seasonally adjusted series). It was the first positive rate after three months of falls that accumulated a reduction of 2.7% in the activity. Compared to October 2017 (series without seasonal adjustment), the industry grew 1.1%, after falling 2.2% in September.

The cumulative indexes for the year (1.8%) and over the last twelve months (2.3%) remain positive, but the sector showed a loss of pace compared to previous months.

The complete publication of the Monthly Industrial Survey (PIM) can be accessed on the right.

17 of 26 industrial segments up

The 0.2% high of industry between September and October of 2018 showed positive rates in two of the four major economic categories and in 17 of the 26 sectors surveyed. Among the activities, the most relevant influences were: mining and quarrying industries (3.1%), machinery and equipment (8.8%), motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (3.0%) and beverages (8.6%). It is worth mentioning that those sectors showed negative results in September: -0.7%, -11.4%, -5.2% and -9.4%, respectively. On the other hand, among the nine segments that dropped this month, the most relevant performances were in food products (-2.0%), basic metals (-3.7%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.2%). The first one had a reduction of 8.4% in four consecutive months of negative rates; the second eliminated part of the 6.2% expansion seen in the previous month; the last one faced the third month in a row of production decrease, accumulating a loss of 9.3% in this period.

Among the major economic categories, in relation to September, that of durable consumer goods (4.4%) showed the biggest advance in October of 2018, influenced, to a great extent, by the major production of cars. This segment offset the prevailing negative behavior taken place since July, a period in which the loss was accumulated at 7.2%. The segment of capital goods (1.5%) also grew this month, eliminating part of the drop in September (-1.8%). On the other hand, the sectors of intermediate goods (-0.3%) and of semi- and non- durable consumer goods (-0.2%) had negative results, with the first one recording the third month in a row of production decrease, with a 3.8% drop in this period; and the second accumulating a fall of 2.7% in four consecutive months of negative rates.

Quarterly Moving Average drops 0.7%

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry increased 0.7% in the quarter ended in October 2018, against the level of the previous month, after decreasing 0.9% in September, when it interrupted the upward trend started in May 2018. Among the major economic categories, intermediate goods (-1.3%) recorded the sharpest negative result in October 2018, intensifying thus the loss observed in the previous month (-0.7%).

The producing sectors of durable consumer goods (-0.8%) and of semi- and non- durable consumer goods (-0.7%) also had negative rates this month, with both registering the second month in row of decrease and accumulating in this period a reduction of 3.1% and 1.6%, respectively. On the other hand, the segment of capital goods (1.9%) registered the only expansion in October 2018 and offset the drop of 0.5% seen in September.

Industry grew 1.1% in relation to October 2017

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector expanded 1.1% in October 2018, recording positive figures in three of the four major economic categories, 17 out of the 26 sectors, 42 out of the 79 groups and 52.9% of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that October 2018 (22 days) had one more work day than the same month a year ago (21).

Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (12.1%) exerted the highest positive influence on the industry average, pressed to a great extent by cars, tractor trucks, trailers and semi-trailers, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and car pieces. Other positive contributions came from mining and quarrying industries (3.9%), pulp, paper and paper products (7.8%), fabricated metal products (8.8%), machinery and equipment (4.1%), pharmaceutical products (8.3%), basic metals (2.8%), non-metallic mineral products (4.3%), leather, travel items and footwear (5.3%) and electrical machinery and apparatus (4.0%). 

On the other hand, also in relation to October 2017, among the nine sectors with reduction in production, the major impact on industry came from food products (-8.4%) driven, to a great extent, by the lowest production of crystallized sugar and VHP sugar, concentrated orange juice, frozen chicken meat and giblets and animal feed. It is also worth mentioning the negative contributions coming from coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-2.1%),  computer, electronic and optical products (-6.5%), beverages (-4.0%) and manufacturing of wearing apparel and accessories (-3.7%).

Also compared to the same month a year ago, capital goods (10.7%) and durable consumer goods (6.8%) recorded, in October 2018, the sharpest expansion among the major economic categories. The segment of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.2%) also registered a positive result, but much less sharper than the national average (1.1%). The only drop happened in intermediate goods (-0.3%).

The manufacture of capital goods grew 10.7%, the fifth positive result in a row and the highest of this sequence. This month's index was influenced to a large extent by the increase in the capital goods group of transportation equipment (15.7%), driven mainly by the higher production of trucks, trailers and semitrailers and tractor-truck for trailers and semi-trailers. The other positive rates were capital goods for agricultural purposes (29.7%), for construction (17.6%), for electricity (9.1%) and for mixed use (0.1%). The only negative impact came from capital goods for industrial purposes (-3.3%).

The segment of durable consumer goods showed a 6.8% increase in October 2018 compared to the same period of the previous year, after falling 4.5% last September, when it interrupted three months of consecutive positive results in this type of comparison.

This month, the sector was particularly driven by growth in car manufacturing (10.8%). It is also worth mentioning the expansions marked by white goods (8.8%) and motorcycles (26.4%). On the other hand, the main negative impacts were seen in brown goods (-5.7%), furniture (-5.6%) and other appliances (-0.4%).

Also in the comparison with the same month of 2017, the segment of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, rising 0.2% in October 2018, became positive again after retreating for two consecutive months: -0.7% (August) and -1.8% (September). This month's performance was mostly due to the increase in the non-durable group (6.5%), driven mainly by the increased manufacture of medicines, books, brochures or printed matter on demand, shavers, lighters and soaps or powdered detergents. The group of semi-durables (0.4%) also increased this month, while fuel sub sectors (-4.7%) and food and beverages made for household consumption (-1.3%) fell.

The production of intermediate goods registered a negative change of 0.3% in the monthly index of October 2018, after showing a decrease of 2.7% in last September. The result of this month was explained mainly by the decreases in the products associated with the activities of food products (-17.2%), machinery and equipment (-4.0%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (- 0.8%) and textiles (-2.7%), while positive results were recorded by mining and quarrying industries (3.9%), pulp, paper and paper products (8.5%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (5.4%), fabricated metal products (5.9%), basic metals (2.8%), non-metallic mineral products (4.3%), other chemicals (1.2%) and rubber and plastic products (1.1%).

In 2018, Industry accumulates 1.8%

In the cumulative index in the year, compared to the same period of the previous year, the industrial sector showed expansion of 1.8%, with positive results in three of the four major economic categories, 19 of the 26 sectors, 45 of the 79 groups and 52.2% of 805 products surveyed.

Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (15.8%) exerted the greatest positive influence, driven to a large extent by cars, tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, trailers and semi-trailers and auto parts. Other significant positive contributions to the national total came from basic metals (5.2%), pulp, paper and paper products (6.0%), machinery and equipment (4.5%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.5%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (6.2%), pharmaceuticals (4.4%), fabricated metal products (3.0%), minig and quarrying industries (0.6%) and rubber and plastic (2.3%).

On the other hand, among the seven declining activities, food products (-4.5%) made the largest negative contribution to the industry, mainly due to the presence of crystallized sugar and VHP sugar, frozen chicken meat and giblets, concentrated orange juice. It is also worth noting the negative results from wearing apparel and accessories (-3.7%) and leather, travel goods and footwear (-3.4%).

Among the major economic categories, there was a greater dynamism for durable consumer goods (11.0%) and capital goods (8.7%), driven by high car manufacturing (14.7%) and brown goods  (9.1%) in the first one; and capital goods for transportation equipment (15.9%), in the second. The cumulative index of intermediate goods (0.8%) also rose, although below the national average (1.8%), while the segment of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods had zero change (0.0%).