In the first estimate for the 2019 harvest, the expected output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was 226.7 million metric tons, 0.2% below the harvest of 2018. One reason that accounts for that result is the decrease observed in the North (-0.3%), Northeast (-8.8%), Southeast (-1.9%) Central West (-1.4%). In the South, up to the current moment, an increase of 4.1% is expected. 

The tenth estimate for the 2018 harvest amounted to 227.2 million metric tons, 5.6% below the result of 2017 (240.6 million metric tons). The area to be harvested (60.8 million hectares) is 0.6% smaller than in 2017. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, ogether, they make up 93.0% of the estimated output, and account for 87.3% of the area to be harvested. 

In relation to 2017, there was increase of 2.8% in the area for soybeans, and decrease in the areas for corn and rice (8.7% and 7.5%, respectively). As for output, there were decreases of 17.9% for corn, 5.6% for rice and increase of 2.4% for soybeans.

By area, the tenth estimate for the 2018 harvest points to the following distribution in the output of cereals, legume and oilseeds, in metric tons: Central West (101.3 million); South (75.1 million); Southeast (22.8 million); Northeast (19.2 million) and North (8.7 million). In comparison with the last harvest, there was increase in the Northeast Region, only, of 7.6%. The other Major Regions recorded decreases: South (-10.5%), Southeast (-4.5%), Central West (-4.4%), North (-2.3%). Mato Grosso leads the evaluation for 2018, as the main national producer, with 26.8%, followed by Paraná (15.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.8%).

First estimate for 2019 points to a harvest 0.2% smaller than in 2018

In this first prospect, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2019 was estimated at 226.7 million metric tons, 0.2% below the harvest in 2018.  The decrease was due to the lower forecasts for the North (-0.3%), Northeast (-8.8%), Southeast (-1.9%) and Central-West (-1.4%). The South was the only Major Region with a prospect of increase (4.1%).

Among the five most important products for the next harvest, three of them should register negative changes in output: upland cottonseed (-2.8%), paddy rice (-4.2%) and soybean grain (-1.0%). With a positive change, only bean seed (0.3%) and corn grain (2.6%).  In absolute figures, smaller output is estimated for soybeans (1.2 million metric tons), for wheat (727.1 thousand metric tons) and for rice (489.1 thousand metric tons).  The output of corn is expected to increase by 2.2 million metric tons.

The figures estimated in the regions and states surveyed were added to the projections based on the information obtained in previous years, in the case of Federation Units with no initial estimates. This first estimate was carried out through field surveys and calculated projections. Information from the field accounted for 80.8% of the estimated national output, while the projections accounted for 19.2% of the estimated overall.

UPLAND COTTON SEED – The first estimate for the cotton harvest in 2019 estimated an output of 4.8 million metric tons, with a decrease of 2.8% in comparison with the 2018 harvest. Planted area, of 1.2 million hectares, is expected to increase 6.7%. The estimated average yield in 2019 is 3 910 kg/ha, with a decrease of 8.9% against that in the previous year. In 2018, clmate favored the production of cotton, with more abundant rain in the main producing areas of Mato Grosso and Bahia; that benefited crops with a record yield of 4,293 kg/ha. Uncertainties regarding climate lead to a reduced estimate for average yield in 2019. Mato Grosso estimated an output of 3.3 million metric tons, with an increase of 5.0% in relation to the 2018 harvest; that state alone is expected to account for 69.8% of the national output. Although planted area must increase by 10.8%, and reach 840.8 thousand hectares, the average yield has been revised to a lower figure (-5.2%), and it is believed to reach 3,975 kg/ha.

PADDY RICE – The first estimate for the national harvest of 2019 is an output of 11.3 million metric tons, and average yield of 6 114 kg/ha, respectively, 1.8% and 2.4% lower in comparison with the 2018 figures. The area to be planted in 2019 is 1.8% smaller. Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer of rice in the country, is expected to account for 70.9% of the total to be harvested next year. The output in Rio Grande do Sul has been estimated at 8.0 million metric tons, with a decrease of 5.0% against the 2018 result. Planted area with rice also recorded a decrease of 4.4%. The state of Santa Catarina, the second main producer, estimated an output of 1.1 million metric tons, and an average yield of 7,286 kg/ha, with a decrease of 4.3% in relation to the harvest in 2018.

BEAN SEED – The first output etimate for the 2018 harvest is 3.0 million metric tons, with an increase of 0.3% in comparison with the 2018 harvest. Bean 1st crop is expected to amount to 1.5 million metric tons; bean 2nd crop, to 1.0 million metric tons and bean 3rd crop, to 439.7 thousand metric tons. The area to be harvested in the summer crop (1st crop) is expected to be close to that of 2018, that is, 1.8 million hectares, whereas the average yield is expected to decrease by 7.2%. The output expected for the bean crop in the summer is 1.4 million metric tons, 7.2% smaller than that in 2018.

CORN BEAN – The first estimate for corn bean in 2019 amounts to an output of 83.8 million metric tons, with increase of 2.6% in relation to the 2018 harvest; that means an increase of 2.2 metric tons. Field estimates amount to 74.8% in the first crop and 73.3% in the second crop, whereas the projections amount to 25.2% in the frist crop and 26.7%, in the second.  There is still a tendency to a bigger output in the 2nd harvest crop, with an expected figure of 69.7% of the national output in 2019, against 30.3% of participation in corn 1st crop. For corn 1st crop, the expected output is 25.4 million metric tons, 1.9% less than in the same period of 2018.

Increases of 0.4% in the area to be planted and of 1.1% in the area to be harvested are expected, whereas average yield must decrease 3.0%. For corn 2nd crop, the output estimate is 58.4 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.9% in relation to 2018. In the 2018 crop, some important states in the production of this ceral have faced climate problems due to the smaller "planting window", limited by the delay in the planting of summer harvest. 

SOYBEAN SEED – The first estimate for output in 2019 amounts to 116.6 million metric tons, with a decrease of 1.0% in relation to 2018. The area to be planted with this legume is 35.3 million hectares, with an increase of 1.1%. The estimated average yield is 3,303 kg/ha, with a retraction of 2.3%, due to the uncertainties as for the climate during the crop cycle, highlighting that , in the summer harvest there was abundance and regularity of rain in the main producing states, thus resulting in a record output in the country. Due to the better soybean prices, producers are expected to expand crop areas of soybeans, probably accounting to 51.4% of the total grain harvest in Brazil. Among the main producers, Mato Grosso, expected to account for 26.6% of the overall production in the country, 31.0 million metric tons, expects a decline of 2.0% in relation to 2018, despite the increase of 0.7% in the area to be planted. Paraná, the second main producer and responsible for 17.0% of the national output, estimates a total 19.8 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.8%.

Highlights in the October 2018 against September figures 

In the Systemtic Survey of Agricultural Production of October, the highlights were changes in the following output estimates against the figures in September: upland cotton (2.6%), coffea arabica (1.4%), coffea canephora (4.0%), corn 2nd crop (2.0%), soybean (0.4%), bean 1st crop (-2.9%), bean 2nd crop (-12.0%), bean 3rd crop (-6.3%), corn 1st crop (-1.5%) and wheat (-0.7%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – With an increase of 2.6% in averag yield, output reached 4.9 million metric tons, an increase of 2.3% against the previous month. In Bahia, output increased 9.2% as a result of the bigger productivity of crops. In comparison with the previous year, the output of cotton increased 28.4%, with increases of planted area by 23.6% and 3.8%, respectively. Better prices, due to inernational demands, more use of technology by producers and good climate conditions in Bahia and in Mato Grosso were responsible fot he excellent cotton harvest in the country. Together, there two states account for 89.9% of the national output. 

COFFEE BEAN – The Brazilian output of coffee this year was one more record in the IBGE time series. The country is expected to produce 3.5 million metric tons, or 58.6 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 2.0% in relation to the previous month. For coffea arabica, the output estimate was 2.6 million metric tons, or 43.7 million 60 kg bags, with an increase of 1.4% against the previous month. In October, Bahia reevaluated its output estimates, which pointed to an increase of 51.2% in the amout to be harvested. The production is expected to reach 108.8 thousand metric tons, or 1.8 million bags of 60 kg, and the state is the fourth main producer in the country. In comparison with 2017, the output of coffea arabica increased 25.1%. The excellent harvest resulted from the positive biennial results, the rainy weather in the main producing areas, and the biggest investments in crops by producers. For coffea canephora, the estimated output, of 892.8 thousand metric tons, or 14.9 million 60 kg sacks, is 4.0% bigger than in the previous month. Espírito Santo and Bahia, which account for 80.7% of the national output, expect increases of 2.2% and 20.0% over September, respectively.

BEAN SEED – The amount harvested was 3.0 million metric tons, 6.6% than in the previous month. The crop is very susceptible to climate changes, and the lack of rain was observed in many areas of the country. The biggest decreases in relation to the previous month were observed in the Northeast Region (18.9%), the main highlights being Pernambuco (49.3%), Alagoas (42.0%) and Bahia (30.5%). In the Southeast Region, the decline of output was 8.4% in relation to the previous month, with significant decreases of output in Minas Gerais (12.9%) and Rio de Janeiro (11.6%). Bean 1st crop was estimated at 1.5 million metric tons, with a decrease of 2.9% in relation to the September estimate. Output decreases were mainly observed in Pernambuco (40.7% or 19 299 metric tons) and in Minas Gerais (12.7% or 27 494 metric tons). In the Northeast, climate problems led to the decrease of output estimates, whereas in Minas Gerais, the decrease of planted area of products, due to low prices. Bean 2nd crop was estimated at 1.0 million metric tons, with a decrease of 12.0% in relation to the previous month. From September to October, there was a decrease of 136.5 thousand metric tons in the estimated output of beans. There was decrese of 2nd crop production in the Northeast Region (52.0%), the main highlights being Ceará (19.8%), Pernambuco (56.3%), Alagoas (42.0%) and Bahia (74.6%), Southeast Region (9.9%), mainly Minas Gerais (11.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (21.3%). Non-competitive prices and climate problems, mainly resulting from lower levels of rainfall, accounted for the decrease of output of bean 2nd crop, which is expected to represent 33.6% of the total to be harvested in the country. The estimated output for bean 3rd crop was 439.7 thousand metric tons, 6.3% less than in the previous month. In Minas Gerais, the output estimate recorded a decrease of 14.3%, with decrease of 20.2% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested and increase of average yield by 7.4%. Non-competitive prices have also contributed to the little interest of bean producers in this time of year.

CORN GRAIN – Against September, output estimate increased by 669.2 thousand metric tons. However, against the previous year, output estimate is 17.9% smaller. In 2017, the production of corn in Brazil was a record in the IBGE time series, when a total 99.5 million metric tons were produced. Corn 1st crop has been completely harvested, a total output of 25.9 million metric tons. In the current month, there was decrease of 1.5%, mainly due to thr decline of output in Minas Gerais (8.7% or 432,847 metric tons). Against the previous year, the output of corn 1st crop was 16.6% smaller. Little competitive prices at the time of planting led producers to expand planting areas for soybeans instead of summer corn. 

In most Federation Units, there was delay of planting of corn 2nd crop, due to the late summer crops. As a result, 2nd crop products were more exposed to dry period, which are common in the end of the rainy season, especially in the Central-South areas of Brazil. The estimated output was 55.8 million metric tons, harvested in 11.5 million hectares. The monthly change points to an increase of 2.0% in the output estimate, against the previous month, with increases of 1.1% in the harvested area and of 0.9% in average yield. Positive adjustments were mainly influenced by Minas Gerais (10.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (18.2%) and Goiás (4.2%), whereas in the Northeast there was decline of production (39.3%), due to the lack of rain in some states. In comparison with the previous year, the production of corn was 18.5% smaller. 

SOYBEAN SEED – The Brazilian output of soybeans, in 2018, was another record in the IBGE time series. The country harvested a total 117.7 million metri tons, with an increase of 2.4% in relation to the previous year. Despite the delay of rainfall, at the time of  the summer harvesting, there was decrease of output (4.5%), only in the South Region, due to a reduced volume of rainfall. In the current month, a highlight was the output in Bahia, which recored an increase of 8.3% against the previous month. In Central West and Southeast Regions and in the “MATOPIBA” (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), the occurrence of abundant and well distributed rainfall led a good development of crops, making it possible for states to collect a substantial harvest. 

WHEAT GRAIN – In Paraná, the first Brazilian producer, the estimated output is 3.0 million metric tons, which represents 50.9% of the national total. Output and average yield recorded decreases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, in comparison with the previous month. Crops are now at their final stages, with harvested area of 48%, out of a total 1.1 million hectares. In Rio Grande do Sul, the second main Brazilian producer, the estimated output is 2.1 million metric tons, accounting for 36.2% of the national production. Non-competitive prices, low liquidity and bad climate conditions have frequently affected the output of wheat in the country. Despite some climate problems, the output estimate for 2018 is 5.8 million metric tons, 37.0% bigger when compared to the 2017 harvest, the year when harsh climate conditions damaged the output of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná.