In July 2018, in the seasonally adjusted serie, the volume of retail trade sales changed -0.5% against the result of June. It is the third negative result in a row, with a cumulative decrease of 2.3% in the period. As a result, the quarterly moving average of the quarter ended July (-0.8%) led to acceleration of increase against the quarter ended June (0.2%).

In the series without adjustment, sales fell by 1.0% against those in July 2017, thus interrupting a sequence of 15 positive rates in a row and recording decrease in five of the eight activities surveyed. Considering the cumulative index in the year, against the same period a year ago, the volume of sales recorded an increase of 2.3%, but in only three of the eight activities. The cumulative index in 12 months changed from 3.6% in June to 3.2% in July, a sign of decelaration of sales. 

In extended retail trade, which includes the activities of vehicles, motorcycls, parts and pieces and construction material, the volume of sales fell 0.4% against June 2018, after an expansion of 2.5% registered in the previous month. The quarterly moving average was -1.1% in the quarter ended July, pointing to acceleration of decrease, when compared with the moving average of the quarter ended June (-0.4%). Against July 2017, sales increased 3.0%, the fifteenth positive rate in a row. In spite of that, there was decrease in the last 12 months, from 6.7% to 6.5% up to July. 

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Five of the eight activities surveyed recorded decreases

Against July 2018, in the seasonally adjusted series, the volume of sales fell by 0.5%, and reached five of the eight activities surveyed. A highlight was the negative contribution of the sectors of Furniture and household appliances (-4.8%), Other personal and household articles (-2.5%) and Fabric, apparel and footwear (-1.0%), sectors which, together, account for 30.0% of the overall retail trade. Also recording decrease, were: Office, computer and communication material and equipment (-2.7%) and Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-0.9%). With increases from June to July, the highlights were: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.7%) and Fuels and lubricants (0.4%), sectors which returned, in July, part of the losses registered in the previous month, respectively, of -3.6% and -1.9%, whereas the sales of the segments of Pharmaceuticals, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries (0.1%) remained practically stable in the comparison.

Against July 2017, in the seasonally adjusted series, retail trade decreased 1.0%, with decrease of sales in five of the eight activities surveyed. It is worth mentioning the influence of the high basis for comparison, considering the release of FGTS resources between March and July 2017. The main negative highlights, in order of contribution to the overall retail trade rate, came from: Fuels and lubricants (- 9.2%), Furniture and household (-6,9%) and Fabric, apparel and footwear (-8.4%), followed by Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-10.1%) and Office, computer and communication material and equipment (-4.3%). On the other hand, with positive results, came: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (1.4%), the most relevant sector in retail trade, followed by Other personal and domestic articles (4.7%), Pharmaceuticals, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries (5.5%).

In extended retail trade, the volume of sales in July recorded a change of -0.4% against June 2018, in the seasonally adjusted series, after an increase of 2.5% in the previous month. This result was influenced by the negative performance of sales of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and Construction material with decreases of 0.8% and 2.7%. In comparison with July 2017, extended retail trade accounted for the fifteenth positive rate, with increase of 3.0%, being the highlight the sector of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (16.9%), followed by Construction material (2.2%).

Fuels and lubricants, with a decrease of 9.2% in the volume of sales against July 2017, recorded the thirteenth negative rate in this type of comparison and accounted for the biggest negative contribution to the retail overall. The rise of fuel prices, above the average change of prices, is a relevant factor that has negatively influenced the performance of the sector. As a result, the cumulative index in the last twelve months (-5.2%), remained negative, and worsened the downward trend which started in April 2018 (-2.9%).

Fabric, apparel and footwear, with a change of -8.4% against July 2017, accounted for the second biggest negative contribution to the overall retail trade rate. The July result recorded the sixth consecutive decrease against the previous year, reflecting deceleration in relation to a low basis for comparison. As a result, the cumulative index in the last twelve months, having changed from 3.1% in June to 1.2% in July, also contributed to the downward trend initiated in January 2018 (7.7%).

Furniture and household appliances, with a decrease of 6.9% in the volume of sales against July 2017, accounted for the third main negative impact on the retail overall rate of July 2018, after having recorded an increase of 0.7% in June. The cumulative index in twelve months, having changed from 6.8% in June to 5.2% in July, has been on a downward trend initiated in April 2018 (9.6%).

Books, newspapers, magazines and stationary recorded a decrease in volume of sales of 10.1% against July 2017, the twelfth decrease in a row in this type of comparison. The negative behavior of the activity has been influenced by the continuous replacement of the products printed by electronic media, mainly magazines and newspapers. As a result, the cumulative index in the year, with a change from -6.8% to -7.6%, remains negative and worsened the downward trend initiated in February 2018 (-3.6%).

Office, computer and communication material and equipment recorded a decrease of 4.3% in relation to that of July 2017, the third decrease in a row. As a result, the cumulative index in 12 months (-3.3%) led to the acceleration of decrease in relation to June (-2.2%).

Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with an increase of 1.4% against July 2017, recorded the sixteenth positive rate in a row in this type of comparison, though recording deceleration in relation to the result of June 2018 (4,0%). In spite of that, this segment was responsible for the main positive impact on the formation of the retail trade rate. The performance of the activity has been supported by the stability of real usual earnings and by the decrease of the price of food at home. The analysis of the cumulative indicator in the last twelve months sows that, with a change from 4.4 % in June 4.5% in July 2018, the sector has been on an upward trend since March 2017 (-3.0%).

The segment of Other personal and household articles, which encompasses department stores, jewelry shops, sporting goods stores, toy stores, etc., with an increase of 4.7% in volume of sales against July 2017, accounted for the second main contribution to the overall result of retail trade, with deceleration against June 2018 (8.5%). The cumulative index in twelve months, with a rate of 6.2% in July, remained stable over June (6.2%).

The activity Pharmaceuticals, medical, orthopedic articles and toiletries, with an increase of 5.5% in sales against July 2017, accounted for the second main contribution to the retail trade rate. In terms of cumulative result in the last twelve months, having changed from 5.7% up to June 2018 to 6.0% in July, it has remained on an upward trend since April 2017 (-3.5%).

Vehicles, motorcycles, parts ad pieces, having recorded 16.9% over July 2017, accounted for the fifteenth consecutive positive rate, and accounted for the biggest contribution to the result of July 2018 for extended retail trade. This sector, in July, had more activity than in June (10.4%) and May (2.1%). As a result, the indicator of the last twelve months (14.1%) accelerated in comparison with the cumulative index in twelve months up to June (13.2%) and May (12.6%).

With an increase of 2.2% against July 2017, Construction rose below the level of June 2018 (5.6%). As a result, the cumulative index in 12 months (8.4%) decelerated against June 2018 (9.2%).

Regional results: decrease in 17 Federation Units in July

From June to July 2018, retail trade sales faced decrease in 17 of the 27 Federation Units, the main highlights being Acre (-6.1%) Amazonas (-5.0%) and Amapá (-3.7%). On the other hand, with negative contributions, the highlights, in terms of magnitude of sales were: Espírito Santo (0.9%), São Paulo (0.8%), Sergipe (0.8%) and Santa Catarina (0.8%), whereas Goiás (0.0%) remained stable. In the same comparison, in extended retail trade, the change between June and July was -0.4%, with decline in 17 of the 27 Federation Units, among which stand out: Amapá (-6.0%), Acre (-4.1%) and Alagoas (-3.6%). The states recording the main increases between June and July, in the seasonally adjusted series, were: Tocantins (2.4%), Sergipe (2.3%) and Goiás (1.8%).

Versus July 2017, national retail trade fell by 1.0%, with 16 of the 27 Federation Units recording decrease in sales, with the main highlights: Amapá (-9.0%), Federal District (-6.0%) and Minas Gerais (-5.9%). With increase of sales against July 2017, we mention: Tocantins (10.0%), Espírito Santo (4.8%) and Maranhão (4.2%). In the composition of the retail trade rate, the highlights were: Santa Catarina (3.0%), followed by Rio Grande do Sul (1,4%) and Espírito Santo (4.8%).

Considering extended retail trade, in comparison with July 2017, there was a 3.0% expansion and 19 of the 27 Federation Units recorded positive changes, he main highlights being, in terms of sales volume, Tocantins (16.0%), Espírito Santo (11.2%) and Rondônia (10.6%). On the other hand, Amapá (-7.3%) had the main negative result. In the composition of the overall retail trade rate, the highlights were São Paulo (6.1%), Santa Catarina (5.2%), followed by Espírito Santo (11.2%).