* seasonally-adjusted series

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the retail trade in Brazil began 2017 dropping 0.7% in volume of sales and 0.8% in nominal revenue, both rates in relation to December 2016. Concerning volume of sales, this result was negative for the second month in a row. As a result, the change in the moving average (-0.6%) increased the pace of fall of volume of sales in January in relation to the figure registered in the previous month (-0.5%). The retail trade in Brazil declined 7.0% in terms of volume of sales against January 2016, recording the 22nd consecutive negative rate in this comparison. Having dropped 5.9%, the cumulative indicator in the last 12 months maintained the series of negative rates since May 2015 (-0.5%). For these same indicators, nominal revenue of sales changed -2.3% in relation to January 2016 and 4.2% in the last 12 months.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the extended retail trade – which includes the activities of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of Construction material in addition to those of retail – posted once again a negative figure over the previous month, reporting a change of -0.2% in volume of sales and of -0.9% in nominal revenue of sales. In relation to January last year, the extended retail trade fell 4.8% in volume of sales and 1.7% in nominal revenue of sales. As to the cumulative index in the last 12 months, the losses were of -7.9% and -0.4% in volume of sales and in nominal revenue of sales, respectively.

As of January 2017, the IBGE started a time series on the retail trade in Brazil based on 2014, as well as updated the sample of informants selected from the Annual Survey of Trade - PAC 2014. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Six of eight activities surveyed fall

Negative figures prevailed in the reduction of 0.7% in volume of retail sales between December and January, hitting six out of the eight activities surveyed. In order of magnitude, the negative rates were: Office, computer and communication material and equipment (-4.8%); Fuels and lubricants (-4.4%), Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-1.9%); Other personal and household articles (-1.8%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-1.1%) and Furniture and household appliances (-0.1%).

In the same comparison, Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, the activity with the highest weight in retail, remained virtually stable (0.2%) and Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear changed 4.1%, being influenced by the stock clearance during Christmas.

Having retreated 0.2%, the extended retail trade recorded a change close to that reported in the previous month (-0.1%). The January figure was mainly influenced by the behavior of the sales of Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces, which changed close to stability (0.3%), whereas Construction material dropped 0.8%, after advancing 2.2% in the previous month.

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITY: PMC - January 2017

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(*) Seasonally-adjusted series.
(3) The indicator of the extended retail trade comprises the results of the activities numbered from 1 to 10.

Compared with January 2016, the volume of the retail trade declined 7.0%, the 22nd consecutive negative rate, increasing the retreat reported in December (-4.9%) and November (-3.8%). All the activities posted negative changes. The results were as follows, in order of contribution to the overall rate: Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-7.0%); Fuels and lubricants (-9.0%); Other personal and household articles (-5.8%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-6.0%); furniture and household appliances(-3.5%); Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-6.3%); Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-17.0%) and Office, computer and communication material and equipment (-5.9%).

TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF THE RETAIL TRADE,
BY ACTIVITY: PMC - January 2017
(Indicators of volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the contribution of the sectoral results to the overall rate.

Having its volume of sales reduced by 7.0% over January 2016, the sector of Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco was the activity that exerted the biggest negative impact on the overall performance of the retail. In the cumulative rate in 12 months, this activity retreated 3.2%, a better performance than the rate of -5.9% registered by the retail. The reduction in the usual real wage bill was the major factor responsible for the negative performance of this sector.

Having changed -9.0% in volume of sales over January 2016, the activity of Fuels and lubricantswas responsible for the second biggest impact on the overall result. The retreat was of 8.8% in the cumulative rate in the last 12 months.

The group of Other personal and household articles, which comprises department, jewelry, sport article and toy stores, declined 5.8% over January 2016, recording the 18th consecutive negative figure and staying above the overall retail average. Considering the performance in January, this sector exerted the third biggest negative influence on the overall rate. The cumulative rate in the last 12 months was -8.8%.

The volume of sales of the segment of Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics fell 6.0% in relation to January 2016. It is worth highlighting that, regardless of the essential nature of the pharmaceutical sector, it registered the tenth consecutive negative rate in January, maintaining the downward trend since April 2016, a period in which the prices of pharmaceuticals were officially adjusted above the average of the general price index.

The segment of Furniture and household appliances changed -3.5% in volume of sales in relation to January last year, being the slightest decline since January 2015 (-3.4%). In terms of the cumulative figure in the last 12 months, the rate stayed at -10.6%. As the sales dynamics is associated with the availability of credit, the lower-than-the-overall-average figure in January 2017 was influenced by the smallest change in the interest rate in the last two years.

Having retreated 6.3% over January 2016, the activity of Fabric, wearing apparel and footwearrecorded the 26th negative rate in a row. The change stood at -10.4% in the last 12 months. Even with the clothing prices positioned below the overall index of inflation, this activity performed below the overall average of the retail trade, reflecting the loss of purchasing power by families.

The activity of Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery changed -17.0% in volume of sales over January 2016 and posted a cumulative rate of -16.7% in the last 12 months. In addition to the reduced real income, the declining pace of this activity was being influenced by the replacement of electronic media for printed products, particularly in the case of newspapers and magazines.

Having dropped 5.9% in volume of sales compared with the same month a year ago, the activity of Office, computer and communication material and equipment registered the 19th consecutive retreat in this comparison, though the appreciation of the real against the dollar in the last three months of 2016 has been contributing to reduce the magnitude of the sales drop in this sector. The cumulative rate in the last 12 months stayed at -10.7%.

The extended retail trade recorded a change of -4.8% in volume of sales over January 2016. This behavior was mainly due to the negative performance of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, whose inter-annual result was -4.6%, whereas the segment of Construction material (-0.3%), which weights less in the extended retail, recorded sales close to stability. As to the cumulative index in 12 months, the extended retail declined 7.9%, being 12.6% for Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and 9.2% for Construction material.

Volume of sales falls in 14 of 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the retail sales declined in 14 out of the 27 Federation Units between December 2016 and January 2017, posting two-digit negative changes in Roraima (-16.8%); the Federal District (-14.2%) and Goiás (-11.6%).  In this same comparison, Bahia remained stable in volume of sales.

The retail trade registered a drop in volume of sales in 24 out of the 27 Federation Units against January 2016, negatively highlighted by the Federal District (-20.9%) in terms of the magnitude of the rate. On the other hand, Alagoas (1.5%) and Santa Catarina (0.4%) recorded advances in volume of sales, while Rio Grande do Sul remained stable (0.0%). Concerning the participation in the negative rate of retail, the highlights were, in order: São Paulo (-8.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (-6.6%).

Concerning the extended retail trade, 25 out of the 27 Federation Units posted negative changes in volume of sales compared with the same period in the previous year, highlighted by Goiás (-20.4%) and Rondônia (-18.9%). Concerning the participation in the negative rate of the extended retail, the highlights were, in order: São Paulo (-5.7%) and Rio de Janeiro (-4.1%).

Social Communication
March 30, 2017