In January, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2025 should total 325.3 million tonnes, 11.1% higher than that obtained in 2024 (292.7 million tonnes with an increase of 32.6 million tonnes; and 0.8% above that reported in December, with an increase of 2.7 million tonnes. The area to be harvested was 80.9 million hectares, an increase of 2.4% compared to the area harvested in 2024, with an increase of 1.8 million hectares, and an increase of 0.6% (472,102 hectares) compared to December..

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which together account for 92.9% of the estimated production and account for 87.5% of the area to be harvested. Compared to the previous year, there were increases of 2.9% in the area to be harvested for upland cottonseed; 6.7% for paddy rice; 0.6% for beans; 2.8% for soybeans; 2.1% for corn (a decline of 1.4% for corn - 1st crop and an increase of 3.0% for corn - 2nd crop) and 2.7% for sorghum, with a decline of 2.6% for wheat.

In relation to production, there were increases of 1.6% for upland cottonseed; 8.3% for rice; 10.9% for beans, 14.9% for soybeans, 8.2% for corn (growth of 10.0% for  corn - 1st crop and 7.8% for corn - 2nd crop), 5.4% for sorghum, as well as a decrease of 3.3% for wheat.

The January estimate for soybeans was 166.5 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 124.1 million tonnes (25.2 million tonnes of corn - 1st crop and 98.9 million tonnes of corn - 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 11.5 million tonnes; wheat at 7.3 million tonnes; upland cottonseed at 9.0 million tonnes; and sorghum at 4.2 million tonnes.

The estimate for the production of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds showed a positive annual change for the Central-West (10.1%), South (15.4%), Southeast (10.8%), Northeast (9.8%), and North (3.6%) regions. As for the monthly change, production increased in the North (0.1%), Northeast (0.1%), and Central-West (2.7%) Regions. The Southeast Region remained stable, while the South showed a decline (-1.6%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 29.7%, followed by Paraná (13.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.4%), Goiás (11.1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.8%) and Minas Gerais (5.4%), which together accounted for 79.8% of the total. Regarding regional shares, the distribution is as follows: Central-West (48.9%), South (27.8%), Southeast (8.8%), Northeast (8.7%) and North (5.8%).

Highlights in the January 2025 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to December, there were increases in the production estimates for sorghum (8.9% or 341,793 t), third-crop potatoes (5.0% or 42,246 t), first-crop beans (4.7% or 54,579 t), second-crop corn (3.6% or 3,395,514 t), third-crop beans (3.4% or 26,722 t), tomatoes (2.1% or 91,134 t), barley (2.0% or 8,300 t), upland cottonseed (1.6% or 137,530 t), first-crop potatoes (1.5% or 30,400 t), first-crop corn (0.7% or 173,000 t). 667 t), second-crop potatoes (0.2% or 2,520 t), canephora coffee (0.0% or 329 t), and declines in the production estimates for wheat (-7.7% or -609,361 t), second-crop beans (-2.2% or -31,335 t), cassava (-2.0% or -417,807 t), arabica coffee (-1.7% or -36,855 t), sugarcane (-1.3% or -9,347,810 t) and soybeans (-0.4% or -750,197 t).

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Mato Grosso (3,000,592 t), Goiás (1,138,400 t), Federal District (25,062 t), Piauí (12,764 t), Pará (7,503 t), Tocantins (3,802 t), Rondônia (2,719 t), Maranhão (1,137 t) and Ceará (660 t), while the negative change occurred in Paraná (-1,469,300 t).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) – The estimate for cotton production is 9.0 million tonnes. In relation to the 3rd forecast, there was a growth of 1.6% in the production estimate, due to the larger cultivated area (1.3%). Mato Grosso, the largest Brazilian producer, expected to account for 70.2% of the national total, is expected to produce 6.3 million tonnes, a crop practically equal to that of 2024, which showed growth of 1.4% compared to the last survey, with a highlight to the increase in the planted area, of 1.2%.

POTATOES – Production, considering the three crops of the product, is expected to reach 4.4 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7% compared to the third forecast. Highlight for Goiás, which had its production estimate increased by 25.2% compared to the 3rd forecast, and is expected to reach a production of 264.2 thousand tonnes. The 1st cropt is expected to contribute with 47.5% of the total potatoes to be produced in the year. The estimated production was 2.1 million tonnes, an increase of 1.5% compared to the 3rd forecast, a result influenced by the numbers from Paraná, an increase of 4.2%, since the other producing Federation Units maintained the numbers of the 3rd forecast.

The 2nd crop, which represents 32.5% of the total production, was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2% compared to the 3rd forecast, with the average yield estimate remaining stable and the area to be harvested increasing by 0.2%. Compared to the previous year, the estimate for this crop is 5.6% lower, with the planted area being reduced by 7.1% and the average yield increasing by 1.5%.

For the 3rd crop, the first production estimate for 2025 was 5.0% higher than that of the 3rd forecast, reaching 884.2 thousand tonnes. Only Goiás updated the figures for this first survey of 2025, with its production estimate growing 20.0% compared to the previous month. The production of potatoes - 3rd crop should account for 20.0% of the national total.

COFFEE (beans) - Brazilian production, considering both species, Arabica and Canephora, was estimated at 3.2 million tonnes, or 52.6 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous month, with the average yield declining 2.8% and the harvested area growing 1.7%. In comparison with 2024, the production estimate declines 7.9%, due to the reductions of 2.6% in the area to be harvested and 5.4% in the average yield.

For Arabica coffee, the estimated production was 2.1 million tonnes or 34.9 million 60 kg bags, a decline of 1.7% compared to the previous month and 12.7% compared to the volume produced in 2024. For the 2025 crop, a negative biennial is expected, that is, a natural decline in production due to the physiological characteristics of the species, in which in even-numbered years there is a tendency to produce more, sacrificing the production of the following year, due to greater exhaustion of the plants.

For Canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 17.7 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 3.4% compared to the volume produced in 2024, with increases of 0.5% in the area to be harvested and 2.9% in the average yield.

SUGARCANE – The estimated production was 706.9 million tonnes, a decline of 1.3% compared to the previous month, influenced by the smaller planted area (-1.3%), which should reach 9.3 million hectares. São Paulo, responsible for the production of 365.6 million tonnes, which represents 51.7% of the national production, maintained its estimates.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. For wheat (in grain), the estimated production reached 7.3 million tonnes, a decline of 7.7% compared to the previous month and 3.3% compared to 2024. In recent years, the weather in the South Region has not been favorable to winter crops.

Oat (in grain) had its production estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a decline of 0.2% compared to the volume harvested in 2024. Average yield grew by 4.1%, while the planted area and the area to be harvested declined by 5.1% and 4.2%, respectively. The largest producers of the cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 852.6 thousand tonnes, a growth of 5.4% compared to the volume harvested in 2024, with increases of 2.6% in the area to be harvested and 2.7% in average yield; and Paraná, with 167.0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.3% compared to 2024.

For barley (in grain), estimated production was 418.8 thousand tonnes, an increase of 2.0% compared to December and a growth of 0.6% compared to the previous year. The planted area showed an increase of 1.6%, while the average yield declined by 1.0% in this last comparison. The largest barley producers are Paraná, with 296.2 thousand tonnes, an increase of 2.9% compared to December and a growth of 3.1% compared to 2024, and should account for 70.7% of the 2025 Brazilian crop, and Rio Grande do Sul, with a production of 102.9 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 5.7% compared to the volume produced in 2024. The production in Rio Grande do Sul should represent 24.6% of the total barley produced by the country in 2025.

BEANS (in grain) – The estimate for bean production, considering the three harvests, should reach 3.4 million tonnes, an increase of 1.5% compared to the 3rd forecast and 10.9% over the 2024 crop. This production should meet Brazilian domestic demands in 2025, with no need to import the product.

The estimated production of beans - 1st crop was 1.2 million tonnes, representing 35.6% of the national share among the three crops, and 4.7% higher than the 3rd forecast. In this comparison, there was an increase of 1.0% in the area to be harvested and of 3.6% in the average yield. In Paraná, the largest Brazilian producer of beans - 1st crop, with a share of 27.9% of the total and an estimated production of 341.7 thousand tonnes, there was growth of 3.7% compared to the 3rd forecast and of 113.0% in relation to the volume produced in 2024.

Beans - 2nd crop was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, corresponding to a 41.0% share among the three crops. Compared to the 3rd forecast, there was a 2.2% reduction in the production estimate, due to a 1.4% decrease in the area to be harvested and a 0.8% decrease in the average yield estimate.

Regarding beans 3rd - crop, the production estimate for January was 801.7 thousand tonnes, an increase of 3.4% compared to the 3rd forecast. Of the nine states cultivating this crop, eight maintained the figures from the 3rd forecast. There was an increase in the production estimate in Goiás (12.6%), due to a 12.4% increase in the area to be harvested. It is worth noting that Goiás and Minas Gerais are the ones that contribute the most to this bean crop, corresponding to 30.4% of the share (243.8 thousand tonnes) and 25.4% (203.8 thousand tonnes), respectively.

CASSAVA (roots) - Production is expected to reach 20.3 million tonnes, a 2.0% decline compared to the previous month and a 6.4% increase compared to the volume produced in 2024, with increases of 3.1% in the area to be harvested and 3.2% in the average yield. The largest declines in the production estimate compared to the previous month were reported by Pará (-7.2% or -328.9 thousand tonnes) and Goiás (-29.1% or -49.5 thousand tonnes), both reflecting a reduction in the area to be harvested with the product.

CORN (grain) - The corn production estimate was 124.1 million tonnes, an increase of 3.0% compared to the 3rd forecast (December) and 8.2% compared to the 4th forecast (December) and of 8.2% in relation to the volume produced in 2024. The area to be harvested shows an increase of 2.1%, as well as the average yield, with growth of 6.0% in this comparison, and should reach 5,697 kg/ha. In 2024, cereal production was affected by weather problems in several producing Federation Units, and should recover in 2025.

Corn - 1st crop presented an estimated production of 25.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.7% in relation to December and of 10.0% in relation to the volume produced in the same month in 2024. The planted area, in the current crop, should fall by 2.6%, while the yield should grow by 11.6%, due to the weather that has benefited crops in most producing Federation Units.

The production of corn - 2nd crop showed growth of 3.6% compared to the 3rd forecast (December) and of 7.8% compared to the volume produced in the same month in 2024. Compared to December, there were increases of 1.8% in the area to be harvested and of 1.7% in the average yield. Compared to the previous year, there was growth of 3.0% in the area to be harvested and of 4.6% in the average yield.

SOYBEAN (grain) – National production is expected to reach 166.5 million tonnes in 2025, an increase of 14.9% compared to the amount obtained in the previous year, setting a new record in national production. In this survey, there was a monthly decrease of 0.6% in the average yield and of 0.4% in the production estimate, which represented a decrease of 750.2 thousand tonnes. Even so, it is estimated that we will have an increase of 11.7% in the average annual yield, which should reach 3,519 kg/ha, leading the harvested volume represent more than half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2025.

SORGHUM (grain) – The January estimate for sorghum production was 4.2 million tonnes, representing increases of 8.9% compared to December and 5.4% compared to the 2024 crop. The national average yield, of 3,074 kg/ha, was relevant to this positive performance, with increases of 2.6% in the annual comparison and 4.9% in the monthly comparison, as well as the expansion of areas, planted ones and the ones to be harvested. Sorghum is expected to occupy 1.4 million hectares, corresponding to 1.7% of the areas allocated to cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the 2025 crop, and a 1.3% share of this production.

TOMATOES - The production estimate was 4.5 million tonnes, an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 3.8% compared to the volume produced in 2024. In the monthly comparison, there was an increase of 3.5% in the area to be harvested and a decline of 1.4% in the average yield. The largest tomato producers are Goiás, with 1.5 million tonnes or 32.8% of the national total; São Paulo, with 1.1 million tonnes and a 24.0% share; and Minas Gerais, with 557.6 thousand tonnes and a 12.4% share.