In December 2024, industry prices changed 1.48% compared to November, accumulating a 9.42% increase in the year, the fourth highest cumulative value in the year up to December since the beginning of the time series, in 2014. The cumulative result for 2024 was more than 14 percentage points (pp) higher than that of 2023 (-4.99%), a pattern seen in 8 of the 24 industrial activities surveyed.

In December, the prices of 22 of the 24 industrial activities surveyed showed positive changes compared to the previous month. In November, 18 activities showed higher average prices compared to October. In December 2023, the IPP was -0.20%.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) for the Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures “factory-gate” prices of products, without taxes and freight, and covers the broad economic categories: capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods (durable, semi-durable and non-durable).

In December 2024, prices in the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries (IPP) – or general industry (IG), another way of referring to these activities as a whole – changed by 1.48% when compared to November 2024. Between October and November, the industry had changed by 1.25%.

Price increases were seen in 22 of the 24 industrial activities investigated, compared to November. The four activities with the greatest changes were: mining and quarrying industries (5.14%); basic metals (4.73%); other transportation equipment (3.26%); and tobacco (2.59%).

The food sector stood out the most, accounting for 0.49 percentage points (pp) of influence on the change in general industry (1.48%). Other activities that also stood out were basic metals, with 0.32 pp of influence, mining and quarrying industries (0.24 pp) and oil refining and biofuels (0.09 pp).

The cumulative rate over the year, which in December coincides with the 12-month cumulative figure, reached 9.42% compared to 7.83% in November. Thus, the IPP ended 2024 with the fourth highest cumulative value in the year up to a month of December since the beginning of the time series, in 2014. This value surpasses by more than 14 percentage points (pp) the one recorded in the cumulative figure for 2023, a trend followed by eight of the 24 industrial activities investigated by the survey.

Among the activities that closed the year with the greatest changes, the following stand out: basic metals (29.29%), tobacco (19.25%), wood (17.97%) and other transportation equipment (17.68%).

The main influences were food (3.48 pp), basic metals (1.71 pp), other chemical products (0.94 pp) and motor vehicles (0.36 pp).

Among the broad economic categories, the price change from December to November was: 1.40% in capital goods (BK); 1.74% in intermediate goods (BI); and 1.11% in consumer goods (BC), with the change observed in durable consumer goods (BCD) being 0.05%, and in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (BCND) being 1.32%.

Intermediate goods were the main influence among the broad economic categories, accounting for 55.26% of the overall index and accounting for 0.96 pp of the 1.48% change in the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. Consumer goods had an influence of 0.42 pp, and capital goods of 0.11 pp. In the case of consumer goods, the influence observed in December was divided into 0.00 pp, which was due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods, and 0.41 pp associated with the change in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

The cumulative figures for the year for the broad economic categories were: 7.52% in capital goods; 8.49% in intermediate goods; and 11.24% in consumer goods, with durable consumer goods accumulating a change of 3.62%, while semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, 12.80%.

In terms of influence on the cumulative result for the year, capital goods accounted for 0.58 pp of the 9.42% recorded in general industry up to December. Intermediate goods, in turn, accounted for 4.73 pp, while consumer goods exerted an influence of 4.11 pp on the aggregate result of industry, an influence that is divided into 0.23 pp due to changes in the prices of durable consumer goods and 3.88 pp caused by changes in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

Mining and quarrying industries: for the third consecutive month, month-on-month, the price change in the sector was positive, in December 5.14%. As a result, the annual change was positive, 4.93%, as it had been in 2023 (9.12%).

Being the most intense and positive change in the month, the sector was the third largest influence on the comparative result between December 2024 and November 2024, accounting for 0.24 pp in 1.48%.

Three of the four most intense changes and influences (all positive) came from the extraction of non-metallic minerals or iron ore. In the case of influence, the four products account for 5.04 pp in 5.14%, among them the two products with the highest impact on the sector's calculation: “crude petroleum oils” (40.54%) and “iron ore and its concentrates, exc. pelletized/sintered” (37.68%).

Food: with monthly changes in the positive range since April 2024, the result from November to December, 1.90%, took the annual result to 14.08%, the highest change, at the end of a year, since December 2021 (18.66%).

The emphasis given to the sector is due to the fact that it was the main influence both in the monthly data (0.49 pp in 1.48%), and in the cumulative total for the year, which, in December, coincides with the cumulative total for 12 months (3.48 pp in 9.42%).

From the perspective of the monthly change, among the products highlighted in terms of change and influence, only one, “concentrated orange juice”, appears on both lists. The increase in fruit prices is a response both to the dry weather, which harmed production, and to the depreciation of the real, 5.0% in the month and 24.5% in the year, the first annual depreciation since 2021 (9.8%).

Oil refining and biofuels: with the second consecutive increase in prices month-on-month, in December against November, 0.89%, the annual price change in the sector returned to positive territory, 1.52%, against -15.43% in 2023 and 11.04% in 2022.

Among the 24 sectors surveyed in the survey, refining had the fourth largest influence on the monthly outlook, accounting for 0.09 pp, in 1.48%.

The four products that most influenced the monthly result accounted for 0.86 pp of 0.89%. The coincidence between these and those that had the most intense price changes (all positive) is almost total. The exception is that “asphalt/asphalt cement/petroleum residues/bituminous ore” appears in the list of changes and “liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)” in the list of influence. From an annual perspective, it is worth noting that the impact of the price change of “diesel fuel” -  product with the greatest weight in the sector's calculation (40.74%) - was negative, and that of “gasoline, except for aviation” - second product with the greatest weight (23.05%) - was positive.

Other chemicals: the chemical industry stood out in December due to its cumulative result in 2024. With the third largest weight in the IPP calculation (7.90%), the sector accumulated an increase of 12.23% and stood out as the third largest influence on the cumulative indicator in the year (0.94 pp in 9.42%). This result is quite different from that observed at the end of 2023, when the sector ended the year with a cumulative drop of 16.38%. In comparison with the previous month, in December the average prices of the chemical industry had a change of 0.50%, the second consecutive positive result in this indicator.

The positive change in average prices for the activity, observed from November to December 2024, was followed by only one of the economic groups that are disclosed: “manufacture of inorganic chemical products” showed an increase of 1.74%, driven mainly by the manufacture of fertilizers. The groups “manufacture of resins and elastomers” and “manufacture of agricultural pesticides and household disinfectants” showed negative results in the monthly indicator, of -1.53% and -0.22%, respectively.

Basic Metals: in December, the price change for the activity was 4.73% compared to the previous month, the second most intense among all 24 activities analyzed, in addition to also being the second largest influence (0.32 pp in 1.48%), the 13th consecutive positive result in this indicator and the most intense since April 2022, when it showed an increase of 6.23%. As a result, in 2024, the activity accumulated an increase of 29.29%, a result that also stands out as the largest change and second largest influence (1.71 pp in 9.42%) on this indicator among the activities surveyed.

The group with the greatest influence, both on the monthly result and on the result of the longer-term indicator, was non-ferrous metals. Their changes are usually linked to international stock exchange prices and have suffered, especially, the impact of changes in the price of gold, copper and, mainly, aluminum, largely due to the reduced supply of aluminum oxide, the main raw material, due to a series of interruptions along the extensive global supply chain, including on the part of Guinea, the largest producing country. It is also worth remembering the importance of the exchange rate for understanding the sector's results: in December, the dollar appreciated 5.0% against the real and the exchange rate accumulated a 24.5% increase in 2024.

Analyzing the sector's cumulative index for the year, it can be seen that all the products that stood out in terms of influence on this indicator also appear with positive results: “aluminum oxide (calcined alumina)”, “gold for non-monetary uses”, “aluminum sheets and strips, with a thickness greater than 0.2 mm” and “unwrought non-alloy aluminum”. All of these products are concentrated in the non-ferrous metals group, highlighting the importance of this group in explaining the long-term results of the activity.

Motor vehicles: compared to the previous month, the sector showed a change of 0.98% in December, the seventh consecutive positive result, the 11th increase observed in 2024, and the highest result for this indicator since April 2022, when it showed an increase of 1.93% (at the time, justified by the semiconductor crisis, which had an impact on the production cost of several items in the sector). Thus, in 2024, the activity accumulated a change of 4.67%, a result higher than that of  the closing of last year (1.93%).

The motor vehicles activity stood out this month, among all the sectors analyzed in the survey, for having the fourth greatest influence on the overall result of the industry in the cumulative indicator for the year (0.36 pp in 9.42%), in addition to having the fourth greatest current weight in the calculation of the overall indicator, with a contribution of 7.37%.

In an analysis by product in the activity, it is possible to observe that, among the four with the greatest influence on the monthly change, all of them followed the sector average and positively impacted the indicator (“tractor-truck, for trailers and semi-trailers”, “parts/accessories, motor vehicle engine system”, “gear and transmission systems for motor vehicles” and “passenger car, gasoline or flex-fuel”). The influence of these four products that most impacted the change of the month in relation to the previous month was 0.88 pp, that is, the other 19 products of the activity had a contribution of 0.10 pp.