In the third harvest estimate for 2025, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to reach 322.6 million tons, with an increase of 2.5% from the 2nd estimate (7.8 million tonnes) and a rise of 10.2% from 2024 (29.9 million tonnes).

The production of soybeans (15.4% or 22 347 519 t), corn - 1st crop (9.3% or 2 124 233 t), corn - 2nd crop (4.1% or 3 736 047 t), rice (8.1% or 856 065 t), wheat (4.8% or 360 657 t) beans - 1st crop (30.9% or 276 071 t) were expected to grow. Upland cottonseed was expected to remain stable (0.0% or 2 354 t), whereas sorghum was expected to decline 3.2% or -127 668 t.

On the other hand, the 2024 harvest reached 292.7 million tonnes, a drop of 7.2% (22.7 million tonnes) against the 2023 harvest. The area harvested in 2024 reached 79.0 million hectares, an increase of 1.6% (or more 1.2 million tonnes of hectares) from 2023.

The 12th estimate for the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2024 reached 292.7 million tonnes, a drop of 7.2% (or more 22.7 million tonnes) from 2023 (315.4 million tonnes).  The area to be harvested was 79.0 million hectares, increasing 1 208 518 hectares over the area harvested in 2023, a growth of 1.6%. The area to be harvested declined 68 952 hectares (-0.1%) in relation to the previous month.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, and, together, accounted for 92.3% of the output estimate and for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, increases of 16.1% in the area to be harvested of upland cottonseed; 6.2% of paddy rice; 6.7% of beans; 4.1% of soybeans and 0.7% of sorghum were registered, as well as declines of 3.4% in the area of corn (reductions of 9.6% of corn - 1st crop and of 1.5% in corn - 2nd crop) and 12.8% of wheat.

Concerning production, increases of 14.6% for upland cottonseed; 3.0% for rice; 5.0% for beans were recorded, as well as decreases of 4.6% for soybeans, 12.5% for corn (reductions of 17.4% in corn - 1st crop and of 11.2% in corn - 2nd crop), 2.9% for wheat and 7.5% for sorghum.

A production of 144.9 million tonnes was estimated for soybeans. As for corn, the estimate was 114.7 million tonnes (22.9 million tonnes for corn - 1st crop and 91.8 million tonnes for corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.6 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 7.5 million tonnes, that of upland cottonseed, at 8.9 million tonnes and that of sorghum, at 4.0 million tonnes.

Compared with 2023, the estimated output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds reported a positive annual change for the North Region (8.1%), being negative for the other regions: South (-1.9%), Central-West (-10.2%), Southeast (-15.8%) and Northeast (-4.3%). As to the monthly change, all the regions declined their production: South Region (-0.9%), Central-West (-0.3%), Northeast (-0.3%), Southeast
(-0.1%) and North (-1.8%).

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led as the main producer of grains, with a share of 31.4%, followed by Paraná (12.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.8%), Goiás (11.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (6.7%) and Minas Gerais (5.7%), which, together, accounted for 79.4% of the national overall. The regional share showed the following distribution: Central-West (49.4%), South (26.8%), Southeast (8.8%), Northeast (8.8%) and North (6.2%).

In relation to November, the production estimates of tomatoes (8.6% or 371 003 t), cashew nuts (6.2% or 9 445 t), beans - 3rd crop (1.6% or 13 024 t), cassava (1.3% or 249 465 t), cocoa (1.3% or 3 648 t), grapes (1.2% or 21 436 t), corn - 1st crop (0.5% or 109 094 t), soybeans (0.1% or 75 980 t) increased, whereas those of oat (-9.7% or -113 821 t), wheat (-7.5% or -612 940 t), oranges (-7.1% or -928 448 t), barley (-2.6% or -11 029 t), beans - 2nd crop (-1.9% or -26 348 t), sorghum (-1.8% or -73 412 t), corn - 2nd crop (-1.0% or -949 519 t), and beans - 1st crop (-1.0% or -8 638 t) declined.

Among the regions, volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West, 144.6 million tonnes (49.4%); South, 78.3 million tonnes (26.8%); Southeast, 25.8 million tonnes (8.8%), Northeast, 25.8 million tonnes (8.8%) and North, 18.2 million tonnes (6.2%). The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered a positive annual change for the North Region (8.1%), being negative for the others: South (- 1.9%), Central-West (-10.2%), Southeast (- 15.8%) and Northeast (-4.3%). As to the monthly change, all the regions declined their production: South Region (-0.9%), Central-West (-0.3%), Northeast (-0.3%), Southeast (-0.1%) and North (-1.8%).

Highlights of the December estimate for the 2024 harvest

In relation to the previous month, the major absolute positive changes in the output estimates occurred in Tocantins (71 572 t), Paraná (53 100 t), Roraima (18 113 t), Rondônia (10 091 t), Minas Gerais (4 010 t) and Amazonas (554 t). The negative changes occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-750 299 t), Mato Grosso do Sul (-457 073 t), Pará (-434 089 t), São Paulo (-29 361 t), Piauí (-24 789 t), Pernambuco (-23 077 t), Maranhão (-19 427 t), Goiás (-10 001 t), Ceará (-8 029 t), Alagoas (-7 524 t), Acre (-821 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-273 t) and Rio de Janeiro (-4 t).

COCOA (nuts) - The production estimate of cocoa was 287.8 thousand tonnes, representing an increase of 1.3% against the previous month and a reduction of 1.0% in relation to 2023. The increase of 1.3% in the productivity of crops was the major reason for this reassessment in December, and it was due to Rondônia, Amazonas and Pará.

CASHEW NUTS - The December´s estimate for the production of cashew nuts was 161.0 thousand tonnes, indicating increases of 37.8% in the annual comparison and of 6.2% in the monthly one. The good performance of this crop was due, to a great extent, to the gain in the average yield, which increased 32.1% in the year and 5.9% in the month and, partly, to a larger harvested area, with an annual increase of 4.4%. The national average yield was 358 kg/ha, favored by favorable weather conditions to the development of this crop. The planted area (451.4 thousand hectares), in turn, increased 4.4% in the year and declined 0.2% in the month.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. Concerning wheat (grain), the estimated output reached 7.5 million tonnes, a decline of 7.5% in relation to the previous month and of 2.9% in relation to 2023, when an expected record harvest of the cereal was frustrated due to a series of climate problems. In this comparison, the average yield grew 11.3%, whereas the harvested area declined 12.8%.

The output of oat (grain) was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a decrease of 9.7% over November and a growth of 18.6% against 2023. As for barley (in grain), the estimated output was 416.2 thousand tonnes, a decline of 2.6% in relation to November and a growth of 9.7% in relation to the previous year.

BEAN SEED - Considering the three crops, the estimate for the output of beans should reach 3.1 million tonnes, a decline of 0.7% in relation to the previous month and a growth of 5.0% over the 2023 harvest. The production of the first crop of beans was of 894.2 thousand tonnes, representing 28.9% of the national share among the three crops, less 1.0% than the November´s estimate.

The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, corresponding to 45.0% of share among the three crops. Compared with November, the output declined 1.9%, explained by the drops of 1.1% in the area to be harvested and of 0.8% in the average yield.

Concerning the third crop of beans, the production estimate was 809.8 thousand tonnes, a growth of 1.6% in relation to the previous month and of 4.0% in relation to the production volume in 2023.

ORANGES - The estimate for the production of oranges was 12.2 million tonnes or 299.4 million 40.8-kg boxes, a reduction of 7.1% over that released in November.

CASSAVA (roots) - The production reached 19.1 million tonnes in 2024, an increase of 1.3% in the monthly comparison and a decline of 0.4% in the annual one.  The most relevant production increases in relation to the previous month were in Rondônia (21.3%), Amazonas (10.6%), Amapá (55.2%), Ceará (0.3%), Rio Grande do Norte (15.2%), Pernambuco (2.5%), São Paulo (14.8%) and Goiás (1.8%).

CORN (grain) - The production estimate of corn hit 114.7 million tonnes, representing a drop of 0.7% in the monthly comparison and of 12.5% in the annual one.

Corn - 1st crop registered an output of 22.9 million tonnes, a growth of 0.5% in relation to November 2024, influenced by the increase in the average yield of 0.2% (4 899 kg/ha) and in the planted and harvested areas (0.3%).

The production of corn - 2nd crop fell 1.0% in relation to the previous month, adding up to 91.8 million tonnes, as well as the harvested area (82.1 thousand hectares, -0.5%) and the average yield (5 505 kg/ha, -0.5%).

SOYBEAN (grain) - The output should reach 144.9 million tonnes, decreasing 4.6% compared with the amount produced last year, adding up to 46.0 million hectares harvested.

SORGHUM (grain) - The December´s estimate for the production of sorghum was 4.0 million tonnes, a drop of 1.8% over that obtained in November and of 7.5% in relation to that obtained in the 2023 harvest.

TOMATOES - The output was 4.7 million tonnes, a growth of 8.6% in relation to the previous month and of 19.2% in relation to 2023. In the monthly comparison, the harvested area increased 6.1% and the average yield, 2.4%.

GRAPES - The production of grapes in 2024 was estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, an increase of 1.2% in relation to the previous month and of 2.5% in relation to 2023.

For 2025, third forecast estimated a harvest 10.2% bigger than that of 2024

In this third forecast, the Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes in 2023 should add up to 322.6 million tonnes, an increase of 2.5% in relation to the second forecast or 7.8 million tonnes, as well as an increase of 10.2% (or more 29.9 million tonnes) over 2024.

The increase in the output was due to a higher estimate, mainly of soybeans (15.4% or 22 347 519 t), corn - 1st crop (9.3% or 2 124 233 t), corn - 2nd crop (4.1% or 3 736 047 t), rice (8.1% or 856 065 t), wheat (4.8% or 360 657 t), beans - 1st crop (30.9% or 276 071 t). Upland cottonseed was expected to remain stable (0.0% or 2,354 t), whereas sorghum was expected to decline 3.2% or -127,688 t.

Highlights of the third forecast for 2025

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production estimate of cotton is 8.9 million tonnes, virtually the same as the 2024 harvest. Small adjustments occurred in relation to the second forecast, like the increase of 0.7% in the expected output, growth of 0.5% in the planted area and of 0.2% in the average yield.

PADDY RICE - The estimate for 2025 was the output of 11.4 million tonnes, a growth of 1.5% in relation to the harvest in the previous year, with an increase of 0.7% in the area to be harvested and in the average yield.

COFFEE (bean) - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee amounted to 3.2 million tonnes, or 53.2 million 60-kg sacks, a decrease of 6.8% in relation to the volume produced in 2024.

For coffea arabica, the production was estimated at 2.1 million tonnes or 35.6 million 60-kg sacks, a decline of 5.1% in relation to November and of 11.2% in relation to the volume produced in 2024. The planted area declined 5.4%, whereas the area to be harvested reduced 5.5% and the average yield, 6.1%

For coffea canephora, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 17.6 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 0.4% in relation to the previous month and of 3.4% in relation to the volume produced in 2024. In relation to 2024, the average yield should grow 2.9% due to higher investments in crops and inputs, since the prices of the product showed fair profitability.

BEAN SEED - The third forecast for the output of beans in 2025, considering the three crops was 3.4 million tonnes, an increase of 9.3% in relation to the 2024 harvest. The first crop should produce 1.2 million tonnes; the second crop, 1.4 million tonnes and the third crop, 775.0 thousand tonnes. The area to be harvested in the summer harvest (first crop) should reach 1.3 million hectares, an increase of 6.3% in relation to 2024, whereas the average yield, of 880.0 kg/ha, should rise 23.1%.

CORN GRAIN - The estimate for the production of corn was 120.6 million tonnes, an increase of 5.1% in relation to the crop harvested in 2024, explained by the increase of 4.5% in the average yield (5 613 kg/ha). The production estimate grew 2.6% in relation to the second forecast.

Concerning corn - 1st crop, the output was estimated at 25.0 million tonnes, increasing 0.4% in relation to the second forecast, due to the growth in the area to be harvested of 29 747 hectares (0.7%).

Concerning corn - 2nd crop the estimated output was 95.5 million tonnes, a growth of 3.2% in relation to the second forecast and of 4.1% compared with the 2024 harvest, due to the average yield, estimated at 5 661 kg/ha, a value 3.3% higher than in the previous month and 2.8% higher in the annual comparison.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - The third estimate for the production of soybeans in 2025 registered a positive monthly adjustment of 2.3%, adding up to 167.3 million tonnes. That volume represented an increase of 15.4% in relation to 2024, establishing a new record in the national output. The growth was mainly due to the increase of 12.4% in the average yield, which should hit 3 539 kg/ha, coupled with a lower comparison basis due to the drop in the productivity of the previous harvest.

SORGHUM GRAIN -The December´s forecast for the 2025 harvest of sorghum was 3.9 million tonnes, indicating a stability in relation to the previous forecast and a decline of 3.2% over the amount harvested in the 2024 harvest.