Industrial prices changed 0.66% in September 2024 over August 2024, the eighth positive figure in a row. In this compariosn, 17 out of 24 industrial activities increased their prices. The cumulative index in the year was 5.51%, whereas the cumulative indicator in 12 months stayed at 6.06%. The IPP had been 1.06% in September 2023.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) of the Mining and Manufacturing Industries measures the evolution of the prices of products "at the factory gate", free from taxes and freight, and encompasses the broad economic categories.

Industrial prices changed 0.66% in September 2024 over August 2024. Seventeen out of 24 industrial activities investigated in the survey registered positive price changes over the immediately previous month. On the other hand, 18 activities had recorded higher average prices in August in relation to the previous month.

The four most intense changes were in mining and quarrying industries (-5.85%); food products (3.70%); pulp and paper (-2.99%); and leather products and footwear (-2.01%).

Food products was the industrial sector that mostly stood out in the composition of the overall result when comparing prices between September and August. The activity accounted for 0.90 percentage points (p.p.) of influence in the change of 0.66% of the overall industry. Still in this issue, other activities that also stood out were mining and quarrying industries, with -0.27 p.p. of influence, petroleum refining and biofuels (-0.13 p.p.) and pulp and paper (-0.10 p.p.).

The cumulative index in the year was 5.51% in September. As a comparison, the cumulative rate up to September had been -5.48% last year (2023).

Among the activities that reported the highest changes in the cumulative index in the year in September 2024, the highlights were: basic metals (16.61%), wood (12.61%), tobacco (12.57%), and pulp and paper (11.50%). The sectors with the biggest influence on the overall result were: food products (1.86 p.p.), basic metals (0.97 p.p.), other chemicals (0.87 p.p.) and mining and quarrying industries (-0.46 p.p).

In the cumulative index in 12 months, calculated comparing the prices of September 2024 with those of September 2023, the change was 6.06% this month. The same indicator had registered a rate of 6.49% in the previous month (August 2024).

The sectors with the four highest price changes in the comparison between September and the same month in the previous year were: basic metals (14.88%), beverages (13.34%), pulp and paper (13.33%) and other chemicals (10.96%). The biggest influences on the result came from the following sectors: food products (2.63 p.p.); basic metals (0.89 p.p.); other chemicals (0.85 p.p.); and mining and quarrying industries (-0.46 p.p.).

Among the broad economic categories, the September´s result showed: change of 0.17% in capital goods (BK); 0.27% in intermediate goods (BI); and 1.34% in consumer goods (BC), being the change in durable consumer goods (BCD) of 0.58% and 1.49% in semi and non-durable consumer goods (BCND).

The major influence came from consumer goods, whose weight in the composition of the overall index was 37.29% and accounted for 0.50 p.p.p. out of the change of 0.66% in the mining and manufacturing industries.

Intermediate goods, with an influence of 0.15 p.p. and capital goods with 0.01 p.p. completed the list. In the case of consumer goods, the influence noticed in September was 0.04 p.p., due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods and 0.46 p.p. related to price changes in semi-and non-durable consumer goods.

In the cumulative index in the year, the change hit 3.45% in the case of capital goods; 4.40% in intermediate goods; and 7.63% in consumer goods, being that durable consumer goods accumulated a change of 2.72%, whereas semi and non-durable consumer goods accumulated 8.64%.

In terms of influence on the cumulative result in the year, capital goods accounted for 0.27 p.p. out of the rate of 5.51% registered in the overall industry up to September this year. Intermediate goods, in turn, accounted for 2.45 p.p., whereas consumer goods exerted an influence of 2.79 p.p on the aggregate result of industry, an influence that is divided into 0.17 p.p. due to the changes in the prices of durable consumer goods, and 2.62 p.p. caused by changes of semi and non-durable consumer goods.

In the cumulative index in 12 months, the change in the prices of capital goods was of 3.08% in September 2024. The prices of intermediate goods, in turn, changed 4.60% in this period of one year and the change in consumer goods was of 8.94%, being that durable consumer goods changed their prices by 3.03% and semi and non-durable consumer goods, by 10.16%.

Weighting 37.29% in the calculation of the overall index, consumer goods accounted for 3.25 p.p. out of the cumulative change of 6.06% in 12 months in industry this month. The result of September 2024 counted also with the influence of 2.57 p.p. of intermediate goods and of 0.24 p.p. of capital goods.

The result of consumer goods was especially influenced in 0.19 p.p. by durable consumer goods, and in 3.06 p.p. by semi and non-durable consumer goods, the latter with a weight of 83.75% of that broad category.

Mining and quarrying industries: comparing the prices this month against those in the previous month, the change was negative (-5.85%) for the second month in a row. As a result, the cumulative index in the year changed from -3.62% in August to -9.27% in September. The change was of -9.22% in the cumulative index in 12 months, the most intense on the negative side since August 2023 (-11.00%).

Mining and quarrying industries stood out due to the behavior of prices between August and September. It was the highest change in the monthly indicator. In terms of influence, it was the second one in the monthly index (-0.27 p.p. out of 0.66%) and the fourth one both in the cumulative rate in the year (-0.46 p.p. out of 5.51%), and in the cumulative indicator in 12 months (-0.46 p.p. out of 6.06%).

Like in August, the prices of the major products in terms of weight in the calculation of the sector, "crude petroleum oil" and "iron ore and its concentrates, except pelleted/sintered", followed the same downward trend, following the foreign market.

Food products: in September, the prices in the food industry changed, on average, 3.70% when compared with the previous month, the biggest increase since October 2020 (4.67%). With this increase, the cumulative index in the year jumped from 3.70% in august to 7.54% in September, becoming the highest figure for September since 2021 (14.82%). Compared with September 2023, the prices changed 10.92%, the highest result since August 2022 (12.72%). In terms of index-number, that of September (187.12) was the second hghest in the time series, losing only to that of July 2022 (188.97).

This sector recorded the second highest change this month, the only positive change among the four most intense ones. In terms of influence, it was the first one in the three indicators surveyed: monthly (0.90 p.p. out of 066%), cumulative index in the year (1.86 p.p. out of 5.51%) and cumulative rate in 12 months (2.63 p.p. out of 6.06%). In addition, it had the highst current weight, 25.20%.

The products that stood out registered a positive price change in the comparison between September and August, except for "ice creams, popsicles and frozen edible products." In the same indicator, two products stood out both in terms of change and of influence: "VHP sugar (very high polarization)" and "fresh or cooled beef." In terms of influence, the following products completed the list of the four highlights (accounting for 2.39 p.p. out of 3.70%): "crude degummed soybean oil" and "sterilized milk/UHT/long life milk." The price rise in "VHP (very high polarization) sugar" was explained by the limited supply, partly caused by high temperatures and drought noticed along the year. It was not much different than what occurred with the price of "fresh or cooled beef", since the hostile weather, worsened by burnings, reduced the supply of oxen for slaughtering. At the same time, the improvement in the income has pressed the price of the product through an increase in the demand. A higher demand also helps to understand the increase in the prices of "crude degummed soybean oil", especially from crushers (a cost increase), as well as for the product itself. In the case of "cooled and/or preheated milk", the long period of drought impacted on the price of fresh milk and, consequently, on the industrialized one. In a scenario of improved internal income, a higher demand pressed the market as well.

Between August and September, "slaughter and manufacture of meat products" (4.33%), "dairy products" (3.89%) and "sugar manufacture and refining" (6.56%) changed their prices above the average (3.70%), which is in line with the products previously highlighted.

Pulp and paper: after a regular stability in the previous month (-0.12%), the average prices of this sector retreated 2.99% in September over August, offsetting, to a great extent, the rise of July against June (3.77%). In the year, producers hit September with a rise of 11.50% in the prices practiced at the factory gate and, in 12 months, the cumulative rate was 13.33%.

By closely following the foreign quotation of pulp, the prices of this activity have been reacting to the clashes in this market, both in the short term and in the long-time indicators. Weighting approximately 34% in the calculation of the sectoral index, "chemical pulp, soda/sulphate, except dissolution pulp" was the product that mostly influenced on the result compared with August, in the cumulative index in the year and in the compariosn with the same month in 2023.

Petroleum refining and biofules: after seven consecutive months of positive price changes, they retreated between August and September. The prices of this sector changed, on average, -1.27%. As a result, the cumulative index in the year changed from 1.63% in August to 0.34% in September. In the cumulative rate in 12 months, the change returned to the negative side, -2.06%, which did not occur since April 2024 (-9.64%).

This sector, which is the second one in weight (10.14%), stood out as the third influence on the monthly indicator (-0.13 p.p. out of 0.66%).

In the monthly indicator, all the highlighted products dropped their prices. However, the two product with the highest weight in this sector - "diesel fuel" and "gasoline, except for aviation", in order - did not appear in none of the cases. Whatever, the influence of the four highlighted products was of -1.33 p.p. out of -1.27%, which means that the other six products exerte a positive influence (0.06 p.p.).

Other chemicals : with stable prices in the comparison between September and August (0.06%), the chemical industry stood out this month due to its result in the longer term. Having the third highest weight in the calculation of the IPP (8.13%), this sector registered the fourth most intense rise in the 12-month comparison, 10.96%, and it was among the fours most intense influences on the cumulative index in the year (in which the sector changed 11.36%) and in 12 months, contributions of 0.87 p.p. and 0.85 p.p., respectively, to the changes of 5.51% and 6.06% of the overall industry in these indicators.

The stability this month reflected a diffuse profile of price adjustments over that practiced in the previous month. Concerning products consumed in cropping, fertilizers, the products with the highest weight in the sectoral calculation, showed lower prices, whereas herbicides, the second highest weight, recorded a rise. Still in the perspective of the products with the biggest influence on the sectoral result, in petrochemicals, "unsaturated propane (propylene)" was sold at a higher price at the factory gate, whereas "linear polyethylene, with density below 0.94" was negotiated at lower prices.

The low result of fertilizers followed the seasonal behavior of the demand in major Brazilian monocultures, whose demand was concentrated in previous months. On the other hand, the production of macronutrients slightly rose in a scenario of passing on higher costs of the import of inputs.

Basic metals: in September, the price change of this activity was of 0.97% in relation to the previous month, reaching the tenth consecutive positive figure in this indicator. As a result, this activity accumulated a rise of 16.61% in the first nine months of 2024, standing out as the highest change and the second biggest influence (0.97 p.p. out of 5.51%) on this indicator among all the 24 activities surveyed. In the cumulative index in 12 months, the prices in September 2024 were, on average, 14.88% higher than those of August 2023. This change also stood out among the other activities as the most intense in this indicator, besides being the second biggest influence (0.89 p.p. out of 6.06%).

Of the four products that mostly influenced the monthly change, three of them followed the sector and registered positive figures this month, being two products from the group of non-ferrous metals ("gold for non-monetary use" and "aluminum oxide") and one from the steel group ("carbon steel rebars"). The other product that stood out, also from the steel group, followed the other side and negatively influenced the sectoral result: "carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates". Between August and September, these four mostly influential products impacted on the result of this activity in 0.72 p.p., remaining 0.25 p.p. to the other 20 products.

The group that most influenced both the month´s result and the results of the longer-term indicators was that of non-ferrous metals. Their changes are usually linked with quotation in international markets and they have been mainly impacted by change in the quotation of aluminum and gold. The importance of the currency exchange should be reminded to explain the result of this sector: although the dollar slightly depreciated by 0.2% against the real in September, the currency rate already accumulated a rise of 13.2% in 2024 and of 12.2% in the last 12 months.