The August 2024 estimate for the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is 296.4 million tonnes, 6.0% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), a reduction of 19.0 million tonnes. Compared to the previous month, there was a decline of 1,651,784 tonnes (-0.6%). The area to be harvested was 78.6 million hectares, representing an increase of 736,017 hectares compared to the area harvested in 2023, a growth of 0.9%. Compared to the previous month, the area to be harvested increased by 8,807 hectares (0.0%).

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products in this group, together represent 91.9% of the estimated production and account for 87.3% of the area to be harvested. With regard to production, there were increases of 11.2% for upland cotton (seed); 2.1% for rice; 5.2% for beans and 16.1% for wheat, as well as decreases of 4.4% for soybeans, 11.0% for corn (reductions of 17.1% for  corn1st crop and 9.4% for corn 2nd crop ) and 11.3% for sorghum. Compared to the previous year, there were increases of 13.6% in the area to be harvested for upland cotton (seed); 5.0% for paddy rice; of 6.0% in beans and 3.2% in soybeans, with declines of 3.3% in corn area (reductions of 9.1% in corn 1st crop and 1.5% in corn 2nd crop); of 11.6% in wheat and 4.7% in sorghum.

For soybeans, the production estimate was 145.3 million tonnes. For corn, the estimate was 116.6 million tonnes (23.0 million tonnes of corn in the 1st crop and 93.6 million tonnes of corn in the 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.5 million tonnes; wheat at 9.0 million tonnes; upland cotton seed at 8.6 million tonnes; and sorghum at 3.8 million tonnes.

The estimate for the production of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds showed a positive annual change for two Major Regions: the South (0.2%) and the North (12.0%). There was a negative annual change for the others: the Central-West (-10.3%), the Southeast (-11.7%), and the Northeast (-4.1%). As for the monthly change, there was a decrease in the North (-0.3%), Northeast (-0.6%), South (-1.6%) and Southeast (-0.5%). The Center-West remained stable (0.0%).

A series of weather problems reduced the estimates for Brazilian grain production in the 2024 crop. There was a lack of rain and high temperatures during the crop cycle in the summer crop (1st crop) and in the 2nd crop in most of the producing Federation Units. However, the most notable climate event was the excess rain and flooding that occurred in Rio Grande do Sul, which may have removed around 5.0 million tonnes of the Brazilian harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds this year. The losses were only not greater because most of the rice, soybean and corn crops in Rio Grande do Sul had already been harvested at the time of the event. The IBGE has gathered and is making available a set of information regarding the agricultural harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, which can be accessed at https://www.ibge.gov.br/singedlab/dados-apoio-rs.php.

Highlights in the August 2024 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to July, there were increases in the production estimates for cashew nuts (4.1% or 5,902 t), upland cotton - seed (0.4% or 36,547 t), beans third-crop (0.4% or 2,838 t), as well as declines in wheat (-5.4% or -510,878 t), beans first-crop (-4.8% or -47,014 t), canephora coffee (-4.4% or -48,618 t), barley (-2.9% or -14,000 t), oats (-2.4% or -29,557 t), cron first-crop  (-1.6% or -382,803 t), beans second-crop (-0.9% or -13,143 t), corn second-crop (-0.6% or -536,610 t), arabica coffee (-0.4% or -10,606 t) and soybeans (-0.1% or -147,693 t).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 30.8%, followed by Paraná (13.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.9%), Goiás (10.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.1%) and Minas Gerais (5.6%), which together accounted for 79.0% of the total. Regarding regional shares, the distribution is as follows: Central-West (48.8%), South (27.0%), Southeast (9.1%), Northeast (8.7%) and North (6.4%).

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Roraima (21,596 t), Bahia (15,006 t), Amazonas (2,637 t) and Rio de Janeiro (17 t). The negative changes occurred in Paraná (-851,600 t), Santa Catarina (-450,538 t), Minas Gerais (-129,711 t), Piauí (-79,686 t), Tocantins (-77,543 t), Ceará (-66,020 t), Pernambuco (-20,475 t), Maranhão (-11,020 t), Acre (-3,645 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-735 t) and Amapá (-67 t).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) – The estimated cotton production is 8.6 million tonnes, an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous month, due to the 0.4% growth in the planted area and harvested area. Compared to 2023, the increase in production is 11.2%, with the planted area growing by 13.6%. Crop productivity is expected to decrease by 2.1% compared to the last harvest. With this forecast, the country should harvest another record in the production of seed cotton.

COFFEE (beans) - Brazilian production, considering the two species, arabica and canephora, was estimated at 3.6 million tonnes, or 59.7 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous month. Compared to 2023, production grew by 4.8%, due to increases of 3.6% in average yield and 1.2% in the area to be harvested.

For arabica coffee, the estimated production was 2.5 million tonnes, or 42.0 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 0.4% compared to July and an increase of 6.5% compared to the previous year. In 2023, although the arabica coffee harvest was a negative biennial, production showed growth when compared to 2022, since the climate benefited the crops, promoting a “reversal bienniality”. Therefore, the basis for comparison is high. For the current year's crop, a positive biennial is expected, therefore, a natural increase in production compared to the previous year. Furthermore, the climate has benefited crops in some producing states up to now, which should favor the productivity of coffee plantations.

For canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 17.7 million 60-kg bags, a decrease of 4.4% compared to the previous month, with declines of 3.3% in the harvested area and 1.1% in the average yield. The monthly drop is the result of reviews that occurred in Rondônia, where there was a 21.9% reduction in production.

CASHEW NUTS (almonds) – The estimate for August for cashew nut production was 151.2 thousand tonnes, indicating an annual increase of 29.4% and a monthly increase of 4.1%. The good performance of the crop is mainly due to the increase in average yield, which increased 24.4% in the year and 4.3% in the month and, in part, to the larger harvested area with an annual increase of 4.2%, despite the moderate reduction in the month (-0.1%). The national average yield was 337 kg/ha, favored by weather conditions favorable to the development of the crop. The planted area, of 452.3 thousand hectares, recorded an increase of 4.6% in the year, remaining practically stable in relation to the month of July.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. For wheat (in grain), the estimated production reaches 9.0 million tonnes, a decrease of 5.4% in relation to the previous month; and growth of 16.1% compared to 2023, when Brazil, despite initially expecting a record crop of the cereal, had its expectations frustrated due to a series of weather problems, damaging crops in the South Region.

Oat production (in grain) was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, a decline of 2.4% compared to July and 36.0% compared to 2023. The average yield showed a reduction of 3.0% compared to the previous month and growth of 36.4% compared to 2023, when adverse weather damaged winter crops in the South Region of the country.

For barley (in grain), the estimated production was 467.9 thousand tonnes, a decline of 2.9% compared to July and growth of 23.3% compared to the previous year. The planted area shows a decline of 12.6%, while the average yield increased by 41.0%. In 2023, adverse weather conditions affected winter crops in the southern region of the country, thus reducing the basis for comparison with the current harvest.

BEANS (seeds) – The August estimate for bean production, considering the three crops, should reach 3.1 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.8% compared to July and an increase of 5.2% over the 2023 crop. This production should meet Brazilian domestic consumption in 2024, with probably no need to import the product. The production of the bean 1st crop was 926.1 thousand tonnes, representing 29.8% of the national share among the three crops, 4.8% lower than the July estimate. Bean 2nd crop was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, corresponding to 44.7% of the share among the three crops. Compared to July, there was a 0.9% drop in production. Regarding bean 3rd crop, the production estimate for August was 791.1 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.4% in the production estimate over the previous month.

CORN (grain) - The corn production estimate was adjusted to 116.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.8% compared to July and 11.0% compared to 2023. The planted area totaled 21.5 million hectares, a monthly decrease of 4,641 hectares (-0.0%) and an annual decrease of 778.2 thousand hectares (-3.5%).

Corn 1st crop presented a production of 23.0 million tonnes, a monthly decrease of 1.6%. The corn 2nd crop presented a production of 93.6 million tonnes, a monthly decline of 0.6%. All regions of Brazil showed reductions in the monthly balance, with the exception of the Central-West Region, representing 72.6% of national production, which remained stable. When compared to 2023, the cereal in its 2nd hcrop continues to fall by 9.4%, mainly due to the 8.0% loss in average yield.

SOYBEAN (in grain) – Production should reach 145.3 million tonnes, showing a decrease of 0.1% compared to July and 4.4% compared to 2023. The production of the oilseed should represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024.