In July, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2024 is expecyed to reach a total of 298.0 million tonnes, 5.5% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), a reduction of 17.4 million tonnes. Compared to June, there was an increase of 0.7%, with an increase of 2.2 million tonnes. The area to be harvested was 78.6 million hectares, an increase of 0.9% compared to 2023, an increase of 727.2 thousand hectares; and an increase of 264,488 hectares (0.3%) compared to June.

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which together account for 91.7% of the estimated production and account for 87.3% of the area to be harvested. Compared to the previous year, there were increases of 13.1% in the area to be harvested for upland cotton (seed); 4.9% for paddy rice; 6.0% for beans and 3.2% for soybeans, with declines of 3.2% in the area for corn (reductions of 8.7% for 1st corn crop and 1.5% for 2nd corn crop); 11.2% for wheat and 5.3% for sorghum.

In terms of production, there were increases of 10.8% for upland cotton (seed); 1.9% for rice; 7.1% for beans and 22.7% for wheat, as well as decreases of 4.3% for soybeans, 10.3% for corn (reductions of 15.7% in 1st crop corn and 8.9% in 2nd crop corn) and 10.9% for sorghum.

The estimated production for soybeans was 145.4 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 117.6 million tonnes (23.4 million tonnes of corn 1st crop and 94.2 million tonnes of corn 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.5 million tonnes; wheat at 9.5 million tonnes; upland cottonn seed at 8.6 million tonnes; and sorghum at 3.8 million tonnes.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was distributed as follows: Central-West, 144.5 million tonnes (48.5%); South, 81.3 million tonnes (27.3%); Southeast, 27.2 million tonnes (9.1%); Northeast, 26.0 million tonnes (8.7%) and North, 18.9 million tonnes (6.4%). The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed a positive annual change for two major regions: the South (1.9%) and the North (12.4%). There was a negative annual change for the others: the Central-West (-10.3%), the Southeast (-11.3%) and the Northeast (-3.5%). As for the monthly change, there was growth in the North (2.3%), the Central-West (2.9%) and the Southeast (0.1%). The others showed a decline: the Northeast (-0.2%) and the South (-2.8%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 30.6%, followed by Paraná (13.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.9%), Goiás (10.5%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.1%) and Minas Gerais (5.6%), which together accounted for 78.9% of the total. Regarding regional participation, the distribution is as follows: Central-West (48.5%), South (27.3%), Southeast (9.1%), Northeast (8.7%) and North (6.4%).

Highlights in the June 2024 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to June, there were increases in the production estimates for cashew nuts (8.9% or 11,930 t), second-crop corn (4.5% or 4,091,266 t), grapes (3.3% or 47,134 t), barley (3.1% or 14,509 t), third-crop beans (1.3% or 9,770 t), upland cotton seed (0.9% or 75,888 t), oats (0.8% or 9,747 t), and Arabica coffee (0.0% or 869 t), as well as declines in the production estimates for first-crop beans (-3.7% or -37,182 t) and second-crop beans (-2.0% or -28,250 t). t), orange (-1.5% or -223,651 t), Canephora coffee (-1.0% or -11,218 t), soybeans (-1.0% or -1,421,272 t), wheat (-0.8% or -78,277 t) and first-crop corn (-0.8% or -181,055 t).

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Mato Grosso (4,564,478 t), Roraima (213,091 t), Tocantins (187,921 t), Sergipe (72,026 t), Rondônia (54,516 t), Minas Gerais (30,603 t), Bahia (9,650 t), Maranhão (2,226 t) and Amazonas (2,168 t). The negative changes occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-2,216,375 t), Mato Grosso do Sul (-436,320 t), Paraná (-150,900 t), Paraíba (-69,378 t), Ceará (-36,312 t), Pará (-28,464 t), Alagoas (-14,377 t), the Federal District (-8,460 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-5,151 t), Rio de Janeiro (-1,562 t), Pernambuco (-1,024 t) and Amapá (-35 t).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) – The production estimate is 8.6 million tonnes, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous month. Compared to 2023, production increased by 10.8%, with the planted area growing by 13.1%. Crop productivity is expected to decline by 2.1% compared to the previous crop. With this forecast, the country should harvest another record in cotton production.

PADDY RICE – The estimate for 2024 points to production of 10.5 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.1% compared to the previous month's estimate, and growth of 1.9% compared to the volume produced in 2023. This increase is due to the harvested area, which grew by 4.9%, while the average yield decreased by 2.9%. Rice production in 2024, although tight, should meet the country's domestic consumption.

COFFEE (beans) - Brazilian production, considering both species, Arabica and Canephora, was estimated at 3.6 million tonnes, or 60.7 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous month, with the harvested area declining by 0.3%, while the average yield remained at 1,864 kg/ha. Compared to 2023, production grew by 6.6%, due to increases of 4.6% in the average yield and 1.9% in the area to be harvested.

For Arabica coffee, the estimated production was 2.5 million tonnes, or 42.2 million 60 kg bags, remaining the same as in June and showing growth of 6.9% compared to the previous year. In 2023, although the Arabica coffee harvest was a negative bienniality, production showed growth when compared to 2022, since the weather benefited the crops, causing a “reversal of this bienniality”. Thus, the basis for comparison is high. For the current year's harvest, a positive bienniality is expected, therefore, a natural increase in production compared to the previous year. In addition, the climate has benefited crops in the main producing Federation Units so far, which should favor the productivity of coffee plantations.

For Canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 18.5 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 1.0% compared to the previous month. Although the average yield grew by 0.5%, the harvested area declined by 1.5%. Compared to 2023, production should increase by 5.8%, as a result of the 4.0% growth in the average yield and 1.7% in the harvested area.

CASHEW NUT (almond) – The July estimate for cashew nut production was 145.3 thousand tonnes, indicating increases of 24.4% in the annual comparison and 8.9% in the monthly comparison. This result can be explained both by the increase in the planted area and by the higher average productivity of the product, 323.0 kg/ha. The average productivity gain was 19.2% in the year and 7.0% in the month. The largest Brazilian producers are Ceará, Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte. Ceará's production, of 84.6 thousand tonnes, represents 58.2% of the national total; Piauí's, of 28.5 thousand tonnes, 19.6%; and Rio Grande do Norte's, of 20.5 thousand tonnes, 14.1%.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. For wheat (grain), the estimated production reaches 9.5 million tonnes, a decline of 0.8% compared to the previous month; and growth of 22.7% compared to 2023, when Brazil, despite initially expecting a record cereal harvest, had its expectations frustrated due to a series of weather problems, which harmed crops in the South Region. The average yield, in this comparison, shows a growth of 38.1%. Oat (grain) production was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8% compared to June and 39.3% compared to 2023. The average yield showed growth of 0.4% compared to the previous month and 40.7% compared to 2023, when adverse weather damaged oat crops in the South Region of the country. For barley (grain), the estimated production was 481.9 thousand tonnes, an increase of 3.1% compared to June and 27.0% compared to the previous year.

BEANS (grain) – The July estimate for bean production, considering the three harvests, should reach 3.2 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.7% compared to the previous month and an increase of 7.1% over the 2023 harvest. This production should meet Brazilian domestic consumption in 2024, with probably no need to import the product. Paraná is the largest national producer of beans, with a production of 820.8 thousand tonnes or a 26.0% share, followed by Minas Gerais with 530.4 thousand tonnes or a 16.8% share and Goiás with 349.5 thousand tonnes or an 11.1% share.

The production of beans 1st crop was 973.2 thousand tonnes, representing 30.8% of the national share among the three crops, being 3.7% lower than the June estimate. In this comparison, the drop was seen in both the average yield (-2.8%) and the harvested area (-0.9%). In practically all Geographic Regions, there was a drop in bean production: North (-0.4%), Northeast (-6.1%), Southeast (-0.2%) and South (-4.6%), while the Central-West remained stable.

Beans 2nd crop was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, corresponding to 44.3% of the share among the three crops. In comparison with June, there was a 2.0% drop in production, partially attributable to the loss of average yield (-0.7%) and in partially due to the reduction in areas. The North Region maintained its stable production, while the others saw reductions: Northeast (-4.6%), Southeast (-0.2%), South (-0.6%) and Central-West (-7.1%) compared to June. More than half of the beans produced in this crop (53.4%) come from the South Region, with Paraná being the largest producer with 659.2 thousand tonnes or 47.1% of the total crop. In this region, the reduction in production was 0.4%, mainly due to yield losses (-1.6%). The production area, however, grew by 1.2%.

Regarding the beans 3rd crop, the production estimate for July was 778.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.3% in production and 1.3% in the area to be harvested compared to the previous month. The average yield is expected to remain stable. Among the nine states that produce this crop, Tocantins (0.5%), Minas Gerais (-0.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (139.8%), Mato Grosso (1.2%) and the Federal District (25.0%) had their production reassessed. Thus, the North and Central-West Regions were the ones that influenced the increase in July. It should be noted that Goiás and Minas Gerais are the states that contribute the most to this bean crop, accounting for 27.3% of the share (215.5 thousand tonnes) and 25.5% (201.3 thousand tonnes), respectively.

ORANGE - The estimate for orange production was 15.1 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.5% compared to that released in June. The dry weather and high temperatures reduced productivity estimates by 2.0%, causing problems such as the abortion of flowering and inadequate fruit filling. Minas Gerais, the second largest national producer, responsible for 5.6% of production, reduced its monthly estimate by 20.5% due to the previously mentioned climate problems, which affected crop productivity with a 24.4% decrease. The unfavorable climate conditions triggered an increase in the drop in the number of fruits per tree. The state showed a 5.1% growth in the planted area compared to the previous month, reaching 41.4 thousand hectares. São Paulo, which has not yet updated its estimates, is the largest national producer with a production of 11.4 million tonnes, which represents 75.7% of the national orange production, in an area to be harvested of 361.6 thousand hectares, with an average yield of 31,619 kg/ha, the second largest in the country, only behind Paraná, which has an average yield of 35,700 kg/ha. In Rio Grande do Sul, the monthly production estimate was reduced by 7.3%, with excessive rainfall and cloudy days damaging flowering, hindering the growth and ripening of fruits, which influenced the average crop yield, which fell by 6.8%. The increase in fruit fly attacks and the higher incidence of diseases also affected crop productivity.

CORN (grain) - The estimated corn production showed growth of 3.4%, totaling 117.6 million tonnes, related to increases of 1.7% in the harvested area and in the average yield, the latter reaching 5,496 kg/ha. Positive adjustments in the North (3.2%) and Central-West (5.9%) regions contributed to this growth, especially in Mato Grosso, which contributes 40.2% to production nationwide, where the increase was 10.2% or 4.4 million tonnes, in the monthly comparison.

For corn 1st crop, production was estimated at 23.4 million tonnes, a reduction of 0.8% compared to June, with losses of 0.6% in average yield (4,955 kg/ha). The South and Northeast regions, with significant representations in national production (38.7% and 22.7%, respectively), had reductions in their monthly balances of 2.1% and 1.5%, respectively, impacting the final data. However, the North, Central-West and Southeast regions updated their monthly data with gains in production of 5.0%, 1.4% and 0.1%, respectively.

Rio Grande do Sul, despite a negative monthly adjustment (-3.8%), remained the largest producer of corn 1st crop with a national share of 19.2%, presenting a production of 4.5 million tonnes. In Minas Gerais, monthly production increased by 0.1%, due to positive adjustments in the planted area and harvested area of ​​0.2%. As the 2nd largest national producer, accounting for 17.7% of the total, it totaled 4.1 million tonnes and a productivity of 6,892 kg/ha.

The estimate for corn 2nd crop accounts for a production of 94.2 million tonnes, which represents a growth of 4.5% compared to June. Important adjustments in the average yield, of 2.2% (5,649 kg/ha) and in the planted and harvested areas (2.3%) helped in the production growth. The Central-West region, with the largest representation in national production (72.2%), was the one that presented the greatest monthly growth (6.1% or 3.9 million tonnes more); The North, Northeast and South also saw increases of 2.8%, 2.6% and 0.1% respectively, and only the Southeast Region recorded a decline (-0.5%).

Mato Grosso, the largest producer of corn 2nd crop (with a national share of 49.8%), adjusted its production value in July compared to the previous month, with growth of 10.2%, totaling 46.9 million tonnes. Other Federation Units showed growth in relation to June 2024, such as Tocantins (5.3%), Rondônia (2.5%), Bahia (2.8%), Sergipe (7.5%) and Ceará (1.1%). Declines occurred in Minas Gerais (-1.0%), the Federal District (-9.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-4.4%), Pernambuco (-3.8%), Rio de Janeiro (-15.5%) and Alagoas (-8.5%).

SOYBEAN (grain) – There was a 1.0% decline in the production estimate compared to June, due to a 0.9% reduction in average yield, with the harvested area falling by 0.1%. Production is expected to reach 145.4 million tonnes, representing an annual decrease of 4.3% compared to the amount produced in the previous year. The production of oilseeds should represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024.

GRAPES – Production showed a monthly growth of 3.3%, totaling 1.5 million tonnes, justified by the increase in average yield, of 2.3% (19,566 kg/ha) and in the harvested area, of 1.0% (or 725 hectares more). Compared to the previous year, this production represents a loss of 13.1%, being related to a 13.6% drop in productivity. Rio Grande do Sul is the largest national producer, with a representation of 47.0%, presenting a production of 703.0 thousand tonnes and maintaining stability in relation to the previous month. Pernambuco, another important, with a share of 29.7%, had its production estimated at 443.7 thousand tonnes, a growth of 12.0% compared to June 2024. The increase in the planted and harvested area, of 9.2% (or 750 hectares more) and a growth of 2.6% in the average yield (49,774 kg/ha) justify the values.