In June 2024, national industrial production increased by 4.1% compared to the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, thus interrupting two consecutive months of negative rates, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 1.8%.

AThe quarterly moving average grew by 0.7% in the quarter ending in June 2024 compared to the level of the previous month, after indicating -0.3% in May, when it interrupted the upward trend begun in August 2023.

Compared to June 2023, the industry grew 3.2%, after falling 1.1% in May and growing 8.4% in April. As a result, the industrial sector grew 2.6% in the first half of 2024. In the last 12 months, the increase was 1.5%, intensifying the growth rate compared to the result in May (1.3%).

The industrial sector, showing a 4.1% expansion in June 2024 compared to the immediately previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, marked the most intense positive result since July 2020 (9.1%) and eliminated the 1.8% loss accumulated in the April-May 2024 period. In this month's index, unlike what had been observed in the previous month, there was a predominance of positive rates, since the four broad economic categories and 16 of the 25 industrial activities surveyed showed growth in production. It is worth noting that, with these results, industrial production exceeds the pre-pandemic level (2.8% above February 2020); but it is still 14.3% below the record level reached in May 2011.

Petroleum products and biofuels and chemical products have the main positive influences

Among the activities, the most important positive influences were recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.0%), chemical products (6.5%), food products (2.7%) and mining and quarrying industries (2.5%), with the first accumulating a gain of 6.2% in two consecutive months of growth in production; the second eliminating the 2.7% decline seen in the previous month; the third interrupting two consecutive months of decline in production, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 4.2%; and the last marking the second consecutive month of expansion, a period in which it accumulated an increase of 5.9%.

Other relevant positive contributions to the industry as a whole came from basic metals (5.0%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (3.1%), beverages (3.5%), machinery and equipment (2.4%), tobacco products (19.8%) and pulp, paper and paper products (1.6%).

On the other hand, among the nine activities that showed a reduction in production, other transportation equipment (-5.5%) had the main impact in June 2024 and interrupted two consecutive months of positive rates, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 4.8%. It is also worth highlighting the negative influences recorded by leather goods, travel goods and footwear (-4.1%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-9.1%) and manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-2.7%).

All broad economic categories remain positive

Among the broad economic categories, still in comparison with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods (4.4%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (4.1%) recorded the highest positive rates in June 2024, with the former eliminating part of the 5.6% decline recorded in the previous month; and the latter returning to growth after showing no change in May (0.0%), when it interrupted three consecutive months of expansion in production, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 2.1%.

The sectors producing intermediate goods (2.6%) and capital goods (0.5%) also showed growth in production this month, with the former interrupting two consecutive months of decline, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 2.0%; and the latter eliminating part of the 2.2% decline seen in the previous month.

Quarterly moving average grows 0.7% in June 2024

Still in the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the total industry showed an increase of 0.7% in the quarter ended in June 2024 compared to the level of the previous month, after indicating -0.3% in May, when it interrupted the upward trend started in August 2023.

Among the broad economic categories, still in relation to the movement of this index on the margin, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (1.5%) and durable consumer goods (1.1%) recorded the highest positive rates in June 2024, with the former marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 3.4%; and the second returning to growth after showing a 1.7% drop in May, when it interrupted the upward trend that began in November 2023.

The sectors of capital goods (0.4%) and intermediate (0.2%) sectors also showed growth in production this month, with the first eliminating the 0.2% loss seen in the previous month; and the second interrupting the downward trend begun in January 2024.

Industry grows 3.2% compared to June 2023

Compared to June 2023, the industrial sector showed an expansion of 3.2% in June 2024, with positive results in four of the four broad economic categories, 18 of the 25 sectors, 44 of the 80 groups and 52.0% of the 789 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that June 2024 (20 days) had 1 less business day than the same month of the previous year (21).

Among the activities, the main positive influences on the industry total were recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (4.3%), pharmaceuticals (17.5%), food products (2.4%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (5.9%) and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (18.4%).

It is also worth highlighting the contributions of pulp, paper and paper products (8.3%), chemicals (4.1%), electrical machinery, equipment and materials (10.1%), beverages (5.6%), furniture (13.9%), mining and quarrying industries (0.9%), other transportation equipment (9.8%) and basic metals (2.0%).

On the other hand, also in comparison with June 2023, among the seven activities that showed a reduction in production, printing and reproduction of recorded media (-22.8%) had the greatest influence on the formation of the industry average, pressured mainly by the lower production of paper money (banknotes), printed for advertising or promotional purposes in films and books, brochures or printed to order. Other important negative impacts were recorded by the sectors of wearing apparel and accessories (-5.0%) and miscellaneous products (-6.9%).

Compared to June 2023, all broad economic categories have positive rates

Among the broad economic categories, still in comparison with the same month of the previous year, the durable consumer goods segment (12.0%) showed double-digit growth in June 2024 and the sharpest among the broad economic categories. The sectors producing capital goods (9.0%), semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (5.8%) and intermediate goods (1.1%) also showed positive results in that month, with the first two showing growth above the industry average (3.2%); and the last one showing more moderate growth.

The durable consumer goods sector grew 12.0% in June 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year, after falling 10.6% in May and growing 25.8% in April 2024. In that month, the sector was driven, to a large extent, by the expansion in the manufacture of cars (9.9%), white goods (31.6%) and other household appliances (43.8%). It is also worth highlighting the advances recorded by motorcycles (8.5%) and by the groups of brown goods (4.3%) and furniture (8.9%).

The production of capital goods showed an expansion of 9.0% in June 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year and showed the third consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison. In the formation of this month's index, the segment was influenced by the advances observed in the groups of mixed-use capital goods (33.1%), for industrial purposes (7.5%) and for transportation equipment (4.7%). On the other hand, the subsectors of capital goods for construction (-20.9%), agriculture (-9.5%) and for electricity (-0.6%) showed negative rates in the monthly index for June 2024.

Also in comparison with the same month of the previous year, the semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods segment advanced 5.8% in June 2024 and marked the third consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison. The positive performance in this month was explained by the growth recorded in all groups, with emphasis on fuels (11.6%), food and beverages prepared for domestic consumption (3.3%) and non-durables (7.2%). It is also worth mentioning the positive results recorded by the semi-durable goods (2.4%) and basic food and beverages for domestic consumption (13.7%) groups.

Finally, the intermediate goods producing sector showed an expansion of 1.1% in June 2024 compared to the same period of the previous year, after falling 2.2% in May and growing 4.6% in April 2024. This month's result was mainly explained by advances in products associated with the activities of pulp, paper and paper products (10.4%), chemical products (4.2%), food products (3.2%), basic metals (2.0%), mining and quarrying industries (0.9%), non-metallic mineral products (1.3%), rubber and plastic products (1.3%), machinery and equipment (2.1%) and textile products (1.8%), while negative pressures were recorded by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-2.4%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-0.7%) and fabricated metal products (-1.3%). Also in this economic category, it is worth mentioning the positive results reported by the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (3.0%), which grew again after registering a negative change of 0.2% in the previous month; and packaging (7.5%), which showed the ninth consecutive month of growth in production in this type of comparison.

Year to date, industry advances 2.6%

In the cumulative  index in the first half of 2024, in relation to the same period of the previous year, the industrial sector registered an increase of 2.6%, with positive results in four of the four broad economic categories, 16 of the 25 sectors, 47 of the 80 groups and 54.8% of the 789 products surveyed. Among the activities, the main positive influences on the total industry were recorded by food products (4.7%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (3.3%), mining and quarrying industries (2.1%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (4.9%).

It is also worth highlighting the positive impacts recorded by the sectors of electrical machinery, equipment and materials (10.0%), pulp, paper and paper products (5.0%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (8.4%), other transportation equipment (11.6%), rubber and plastic products (3.8%), beverages (4.3%), wood products (8.3%) and furniture (5.7%).

On the other hand, still in the comparison with January-June 2023, among the eight activities that showed a reduction in production, pharmaceutical and chemical products (-5.9%) had the greatest influence on the formation of the industry average. Other important negative contributions were recorded by the activities of machinery and equipment (-2.0%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-4.5%) and miscellaneous products (-5.5%).

Among the broad economic categories, the profile of results for the first six months of 2024 showed greater dynamism for capital goods (5.0%), durable consumer goods (4.3%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (4.1%), driven largely by the higher production of capital goods for transportation equipment (10.4%), in the first; household appliances (22.1%), in the second; and food and beverages prepared for domestic consumption (5.9%) and fuels (6.1%), in the third. The intermediate goods producing sector (1.8%) also showed a positive result in the cumulative index for the first half of the year, but recorded less intense growth than that seen in the industry average (2.6%).