In May 2024, the national industrial production decreased by 0.9% from April, with seasonal adjustment, the second consecutive negative rate, with a cumulative drop of 1.7%. The quarterly moving average had a negative change of 0.2% in the quarter ended in May 2024 compared to the level of the previous month.

Against May 2023, industry dropped by 1.0%, after an increase of 8.4% in April. As a result, the industrial sector increased by 2.5% in the first five months of 2024. As for the cumulative index in the last 12 months, increase amounted to 1.3%, with deceleration of increase from the previous month.

The industrial sector showed a drop of 0.9% in May 2024 compared to the previous month. In the seasonally adjusted series, it marked the second consecutive month to register a fall in production and eliminated the cumulative gain of 1.1% in March and February 2024. In the index of that month, unlike what had been observed in the previous month, there was a predominance of negative rates, since the four broad economic categories and 16 of the 25 industrial activities surveyed showed a drop in production.

It should be highlighted that, with these results, industrial production is 1.4% below the pre-pandemic level (February 2020) and 17.8% below the record level reached in May 2011.

Vehicles and food products have the greatest negative influences

Among the activities, the most significant negative influences were motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-11.7%) and food products (-4.0%), with the former eliminating part of the 13.8% advance seen in the previous month; and the latter marking the second consecutive month to register a fall in production. During this period, it showed a loss of 4.7%.

Other significant negative contributions to the manufacturing overall came from chemicals (-2.5%), electrical machinery, appliances and materials (-6.3%), tobacco products (-28.2%), basic metals (-2.8%), machinery and equipment (-3.5%), printing and reproduction of recordings (-15.0%) and miscellaneous products (-8.5%).

On the other hand, among the nine activities that reported an expansion in production, mining and quarrying industries (2.6%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.9%) exerted the main impacts in May 2024, with the former eliminating part of the 3.2% decline recorded last April; and the latter interrupting the five consecutive months to register a fall in production, a period which had a cumulative loss of 4.2%.

All broad economic categories recorded negative results

Among the broad economic categories, still in comparison with the previous month, durable consumer goods (-5.7%) and capital goods (-2.7%) recorded the highest negative rates in May 2024, with both reversing the advances recorded in the previous month: 4.5% and 2.9%, respectively.

The sectors that produce intermediate goods (-0.8%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.1%) also saw a drop in production this month, with the former having a cumulative loss of 2.1% in two consecutive months of decline; and the latter interrupting three consecutive months of expansion, a period in which it had a cumulative gain of 1.8%.

Quarterly moving average changes -0.2% in May 2024

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average for total manufacturing changed by -0.2% in the quarter ending May 2024 compared to the previous month, thus interrupting the upward trend initiated in February 2023.

Among the major economic categories, still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, durable consumer goods (-1.8%) posted the highest negative result in May 2024 and interrupted the upward trend that began in November 2023. The intermediate goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.2%) segments also fell this month, with the former marking the fourth month of decline in a row, a period in which it had a cumulative loss of 2.3%; and the latter interrupted the upward trend that began in December 2023.

On the other hand, the semi and non-durable consumer goods sector, by advancing 0.3%, marked the only positive result in May 2024 and recorded the fourth consecutive month of growth, a period that had a cumulative gain of 1.4%.

Industry drops 1.0% compared to May 2023

In comparison with May 2023, the industrial sector fell by 1.0% in May 2024, with negative results in two of the four major economic categories, 14 of the 25 branches, 43 of the 80 groups and 50.4% of the 789 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that May 2024 (21 days) had 1 working day less than the same month last year (22).

Among the activities, the main negative influences on total manufacturing were recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-3.0%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-6.0%), machinery and equipment (-8.9%), metal products (-5.6%) and chemical products (-3.6%).

It is also worth highlighting the negative contributions of the tobacco products (-22.9%), miscellaneous products (-11.5%) and leather, travel articles and footwear (-6.9%) sectors.

On the other hand, still in comparison with May 2023, among the 11 activities that showed an increase in production, food products (1.5%), electrical machinery, appliances and materials (9.4%) and pulp, paper and paper products (5.5%) had the greatest influence on the formation of the industry average. Other important positive impacts came from the following sectors: rubber and plastic products (4.3%), pharmaceuticals (5.8%), computer equipment and electronic and optical products (5.9%), other transportation equipment (9.0%) and furniture and household appliances (7.1%).

Against May 2023, two economic categories have negative rates

Among the broad economic categories, also in comparison with May 2023, durable consumer goods (-10.6%) recorded the sharpest decline among the broad economic categories in May 2024. The intermediate goods segment (-2.2%) also registered a fall in production that month. On the other hand, the sectors producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (2.6%) and capital goods (3.1%) registered positive rates in May 2024.

The durable consumer goods segment fell by 10.6% in May 2024 against the same period a year earlier, marking the highest negative rate since April 2022 (-14.0%). This month, the sector was affected, to a great extent, by the reduction in vehicle production (-30.6%). On the other hand, the main positive impacts came from the white goods (16.6%) and other household appliances (24.8%). It is also worth highlighting the advances in motorcycles (4.2%) and in the sector of "brown goods" (2.0%).

The production of intermediate goods fell by 2.2% in May 2024 compared to the same period last year and marked the sharpest decline since April 2023 (-2.9%). This was mainly due to declines in products associated with coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6.5%), chemicals (-6.1%), basic metals (-5.6%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-4.9%) and food products (-2.4%), machinery and equipment (-9.1%), non-metallic mineral products (-1.1%) and mining and quarrying (-0.2%), while positive results were recorded by pulp, paper and paper products (6.8%), rubber and plastic products (4.6%), textiles (1.6%) and metal products (0.4%).

Also in relation to the same month a year ago, the semi and non-durable consumer goods segment rose 2.6% in May 2024, the second consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison, but with less impact than in April (11.5%). The positive performance in this month was explained by growth in all the groups, especially food and beverages for domestic consumption (3.2%), non-durables (3.9%) and fuels (2.0%).

Finally, the capital goods sector grew by 3.1% in May 2024 compared to the same period a year earlier, marking the second consecutive month of growth in production, but less than the previous month (24.6%). In the formation of this month's index, the segment was mainly influenced by the advance observed in the groups of capital goods for transportation equipment (15.8%).

In the cumulative index over the year, industry advances 2.5%

In the cumulative index for the first five months of 2024, compared to the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector recorded an increase of 2.5%, with positive results in four of the four broad economic categories, 19 of the 25 branches, 50 of the 80 groups and 55.3% of the 789 products surveyed. Among the activities, the main positive influences on total manufacturing were recorded by food products (5.2%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (3.1%), mining and quarrying (2.3%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (4.8%).

It is also worth highlighting the positive impacts recorded by the electrical machinery, appliances and material (9.9%), pulp, paper and paper products (4.4%), rubber and plastic products (4.3%), other transportation equipment (11.9%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (6.6%), beverages (4.1%) and wood products (9.0%).

On the other hand, also in comparison with January-May 2023, among the six activities that registered a drop in production, pharmaceuticals (-9.9%) had the biggest influence on the formation of industry average, due, to a great extent, to the lower production of medicines. Other significant negative contributions came from machinery and equipment (-2.8%) and maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-4.7%).

Among the broad economic categories, the profile of the results for the first five months of 2024 showed greater dynamism for capital goods (4.1%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (3.8%), mainly driven by higher production of capital goods for transportation equipment (12.1%) in the former, and crude petroleum oils and diesel fuel, in the latter. The sectors that produce durable consumer goods (2.8%) and intermediate goods (2.0%) also registered positive results in the cumulative index for the year, with the former recording a greater increase than the industry average (2.5%); and the latter showing the least marked growth.

Keywords: Produção industrial recua 0, 9% em maio