In May, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2024 should total 296.8 million tonnes, 5.9% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), with a reduction of 18.6 million tonnes. In relation to April, there was a drop of -0.9%, with a decline of 2.8 million tonnes.

The area to be harvested is 78.3 million hectares, an increase of 0.6% compared to the area harvested in 2023, growth of 454,502 hectares and an increase of 0.6% (445,140 hectares) compared to April.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products, together represent 91.5% of the estimated production and account for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2023, there was an increase of 12.5% ​​in the area to be harvested of upland cotton seed; 6.5% for paddy rice; of 6.1% in beans and 3.3% in soybeans, with declines of 4.7% in the corn area (reductions of 8.6% in corn 1st crop and 3.5% in corn 2nd crop); 11.8% for wheat and 3.0% for sorghum.

In relation to production, there were increases of 9.9% for upland cotton seed; 2.3% for rice; 7.0% for beans; of 0.5% for sorghum and 23.8% for wheat, and decreases of 3.5% for soybeans and 12.7% for corn (reductions of 14.5% in corn 1st crop and 12.2% in corn 2nd crop).

The May estimate for soybeans was 146.7 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 114.5 million tonnes (23.7 million tonnes of corn 1st crop and 90.8 million tonnes of corn 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.5 million tonnes; that of wheat at 9.6 million tonnes; that of upland cotton seed at 8.5 million tonnes; and sorghum, at 4.3 million tonnes.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed positive annual change for two Major Regions: the South (5.0%) and the North (8.5%). There was a negative annual change for the others: Central-West (-12.8%), Southeast (-8.5%) and Northeast (-2.8%).

As for the monthly change, the Northeast (0.2%), North (0.8%) and Southeast (2.3%) showed growth, while the others showed decline: South (-3.0%) and Central-West ( -0.7%). Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 29.2%, followed by Paraná (13.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.7%), Goiás (10.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.3%) and Minas Gerais (5.9%), which, together, represented 79.1% of the total. Regarding regional participation, there is the following distribution: Central-West (47.3%), South (28.2%), Southeast (9.5%), Northeast (8.8%) and North (6 ,two%).

Highlights in May 2024 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to April, there were increases in production estimates for sorghum (7.8% or 313,792 t), oats (4.4% or 53,394 t), bean 3rd crop (3.5% or 24,662 t), arabica coffee (2.4% or 59,152 t), upland cotton seed (2.0% or 166,476 t), tomatoes (2.0% or 82,978 t), canephora coffee (0.9% or 10,731 t ), rice (0.3% or 27,247 t), as well as declines in production estimates for bean 2nd crop (-8.3% or -128,643 t), wheat (-2.5% or -250,047 t ), bean 1st crop (-1.6% or -16,670 t), corn 1sr crop (-1.1% or -271,069 t), corn 2nd crop (-1.1% or -1,033,677 t ), barley (-1.1% or –5,096 t), and soybeans (-1.1% or –1,589,779 t).

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 140.4 million tonnes (47.3%); South, 83.8 million tonnes (28.2%); Southeast, 28.1 million tonnes (9.5%); Northeast, 26.2 million tonnes (8.8%) and North, 18.3 million tonnes (6.0%).

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Mato Grosso (2,641,521 t), in Minas Gerais (629,997 t), in Rondônia (87,418 t), in Tocantins (63,040 t), in Ceará (28,983 t), in Maranhão (20,969 t), in Pernambuco (15,952 t) and in Acre (735 t). The negative changes occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul (-3,356,708 t), in Rio Grande do Sul (-2,147,187 t), in Paraná (-457,000 t), in Goiás (-309,097 t), in Piauí (- 1,570 t), and in Rio de Janeiro (-36 t).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) – The estimate for cotton production is 8.5 million tonnes, an increase of 2.0% in relation to the previous month, due to growth of 1.5% in the planted area and 0. 6% on average yield. In relation to 2023, the increase in production is 9.9%, with the planted area growing 12.5%. Crop productivity is expected to drop 2.3% compared to the last harvest. With this forecast, the country should harvest another record in cotton production.

PADDY RICE (husk) – The estimate for 2024 points to a production of 10.5 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month's estimate, and growth of 2.3% in relation to the volume produced in 2023. This increase is mainly due to the planted area, which grew 6.0%, while the average yield fell 3.9%.

In Rio Grande do Sul, which should account for more than 69.3% of national production, weather conditions did not favor cultivation, showing a drop in productivity due to excess rainfall in the first months of the crop's implementation, as well as a greater period of cloudiness, directly compromising crop performance in the field. Production in Rio Grande do Sul is expected to reach 7.3 million tonnes, an increase of 2.6% compared to 2023, due to the 7.1% increase in the harvested area, given that productivity, of 8,208 kg/ha, presented a reduction of 4.3% compared to the previous harvest. It is important to highlight that, due to recent increases in cereal prices, in the 2024 crop there was an increase in planting areas, which did not happen a few years ago, due to many rice farmers alternating floodplain areas with the planting of corn and soybeans, more profitable crops by then.

The concern, at this moment, focuses on the losses resulting from the heavy rains that hit the state at the end of April. In relation to April, the production estimate is showing a decline of 1.6%, with the harvested area and average yield having fallen by 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively.

COFFEE (beans) - Brazilian production, considering the two species, arabica and canephora, was estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, or 61.4 million 60 kg bags, increases of 1.9% compared to the previous month and 7.7% compared to 2023.

For Arabica coffee, estimated production was 2.5 million tonnes, or 42.3 million 60 kg bags, increases of 2.4% compared to April and 7.1% compared to the previous year. In 2023, although the Arabica coffee crop had a negative bienniality, production showed growth when compared to 2022, as the weather benefited the crops, promoting an “inversion of this bienniality”. For the current year's crop, a positive two-year period is expected, therefore, an increase in production compared to the previous year.

For Canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 19.1 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous month. In relation to 2023, production should increase 9.1%, as a result of growth of 6.3% in average yield and 2.7% in harvested area.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. Regarding wheat (grain), production should reach 9.6 million tonnes, a decline of 2.5% compared to the April estimate; and growth of 23.8% compared to 2023, when Brazil, despite initially expecting a record harvest, had its expectations frustrated due to a series of weather problems, which harmed crops in the South Region. The average yield, in this comparison, presents a growth of 40.4%.

The South region should account for 87.0% of national wheat production in 2024. In Rio Grande do Sul, the country's main wheat producer, with 44.0% of the national total, in 2024, the production estimate reached 4.2 million of tonnes, a decline of 6.4% compared to the previous month and an increase of 61.0% compared to what was produced in 2023. There was a 78.2% growth in productivity, therefore, a recovery in production, which was greatly affected due to unfavorable weather conditions in the 2023 crop. However, recent weather events in the State, relating to excessive rain and flooding in a large part of its territory, could compromise the production of winter products, for, in addition to production losses in crops In the field, there were significant soil losses due to erosion. In Paraná, the second largest national wheat producer, with a share of 38.7% in the total, production was estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, a decline of 2.2% in relation to April, and growth of 3.1% in relation to the production obtained in 2023. The area to be planted shows a decline of 20.6% compared to the previous year, and the average yield, an increase of 29.9%.

Oat production (in grain) was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, an increase of 4.4% compared to April and 41.8% compared to 2023. The average yield increased by 5.1% in compared to the previous month and 39.5% compared to 2023, when adverse weather damaged oat crops in the South Region of the country.

For barley (grain), the estimated production was 460.2 thousand tonnes, a decline of 1.1% compared to April and growth of 21.3% compared to the previous year. The average yield shows growth of 43.0% compared to 2023, when adverse weather damaged crops in the South Region of the country.

BEANS (grain) – The estimated production of beans for 2024, considering the three crops, should reach 3.2 million tonnes, a reduction of 3.7% in relation to the previous month and an increase of 7.0% in compared to 2023. This production should meet Brazilian domestic consumption in 2024, possibly without the need to import the product.

Production of bean 1st crop was 997.9 thousand tonnes, a reduction of 1.6% compared to the April estimate. The expected average yield was 1.3% lower, as well as the harvested area reduced by 0.4%. The negative highlights in the production estimate were for Piauí (-12.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (-11.9%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-54.0%).

Bean 2nd crop was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, a reduction of 8.3% compared to the last survey. The average yield estimate was reduced by 9.1% and the estimated area to be harvested increased by 0.9%. The states with the biggest reductions in production estimates were Paraná (-16.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-20.8%) and Mato Grosso (-5.9%).

Regarding bean 3rd crop, the production estimate was 736.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 3.5% in the production estimate and 3.4% in the average yield, in relation to the month of April. The estimate of the area to be harvested remained practically stable. Among the nine states that produce in this crop, six maintained the previous month's numbers. Estimates were updated in May: Minas Gerais (4.6%), Mato Grosso (6.5%) and Goiás (3.2%).

CORN (grain) - The estimated corn production totaled 114.5 million tonnes, a decline of 1.1% compared to the previous month and 12.7% compared to 2023. The monthly reduction of 6.6% in production in Rio Grande do Sul, as well as of 15.4% in Mato Grosso do Sul had an impact in Brazilian production.

Corn 1sr crop presented a production of 23.7 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.1% in relation to the month of April, due to reductions of 0.5% in productivity (5,013 kg/ha) and 0.6 % in the area to be harvested, of 4.7 million hectares, resulting in a reduction of 28.3 thousand hectares. The North, Central-West and South Regions presented losses of 1.2%, 1.4% and 3.2%, respectively, with the latter showing a decline of 2.8% in the average yield. When compared to the same period of the previous year, the loss of national production was 14.5%, with reductions of 9.6% in the planted area and 6.5% in average yield.

The estimated production of corn 2nd crop was 90.8 million tonnes, a decline of 1.1% compared to the previous month. Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, which have significant national shares, had important losses in productivity, 2.4% and 22.2%, respectively, due to adverse weather conditions. The production estimate for Paraná was 13.2 million tonnes, a decline of 2.3% compared to the previous month, and for Mato Grosso do Sul it was 9.6 million tonnes, a decline of 15.4%.

SOYBEAN (grain) – Mainly influenced by the monthly declines in average yield in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, and the growth in area in Mato Grosso, the national production estimate was reduced by 1.1% , which represents a decrease of almost 1.6 million tonnes. As a result, Brazilian production should reach 146.7 million tonnes, showing an annual decrease of 3.5% compared to the quantity produced in the previous year, but which, even so, should represent almost half of the total of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024.

SORGHUM (grain) – The May estimate for sorghum production was 4.3 million tonnes, an increase of 7.8% in relation to that obtained in April and 0.5% in relation to that obtained in the 2023 crop. Sorghum occupied 1.3 million hectares; 1.6% of the areas allocated to cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the 2024 crop, representing a 1.5% share of this production. Compared to April, production expanded 7.8%, with the area growing 1.3%, but, above all, there were gains in average yield, which increased 6.4%.

TOMATOES – The quantity produced was estimated at 4.2 million tonnes, an increase of 2.0% in relation to April, being justified, in part, by the increase in area (1.0%) and in part by the increase in average yield ( 1.0%). In relation to the 2023 crop, there was an 8.4% increase in production, which can be attributed to the 7.0% increase in average yield, with 75,093 kg/ha, as well as the greater use of cultivation areas (0.9 %).