In February, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2024 should add up to 300.7 million tonnes, 4.7% below that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), a reduction of 14.7 million tonnes, and 0.9% below that reported in January, a decrease of 2.7 million tonnes.

The area to be harvested was of 78.0 million hectares, a growth of 0.2% over the area harvested in 2023, an increase of 160.5 thousand hectares, and an increase of 0.5% (383.1 thousand hectares) in relation to January. 

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 92.0% of the output estimate and accounted for 86.9% of the area to be harvested. Compared with 2023, increases of 8.6% were registered in the area to be harvested of upland cottonseed, 4.4% of paddy rice, 5.5%of beans, 0,3% of wheat and 2.1% of soybeans, and decreases of 4.7% in corn (drop of 7.7% in corn - 1st crop and of 3.8% in corn - 2nd crop) and of 5.5% in sorghum. 

Concerning the output, increases of 5.6% were recorded for upland cottonseed, 1.3% for rice, 8.1% for beans and 24.2% for wheat, and decreases of 1.8% for soybeans, 14.0% for sorghum and 10.8% for corn (reductions of 9.6% in corn - 1st crop and of 11.2% in corn - 2nd crop).

The February estimate for soybeans was of 149.3 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was of 116.9 million tonnes (25.1 million tonnes for corn - 1st crop and 91.8 million tonnes for corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.4 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 9.6 million tonnes, that of upland cottonseed, at 8.2 million tonnes and that of sorghum, at 3.7 million tonnes.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered a positive annual change in two Major Regions: Sul (10.3%) and Norte (2.1%), and an annual negative change for the others: Central-West (-12.1%), Southeast (-8.7%) and Northeast (-4.3%). Concerning the monthly change, the North (1.7%) and Northeast (1.6%) regions grew, whereas the others declined: Southeast (-3.2%), South (-2.0%) and Central-West (-0.5%).

Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 27.9%, followed by Paraná (13.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.4%), Goiás (10.1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.9%) and Minas Gerais (5.7%). These states together accounted for 79.5% of the national estimate. As for the participation of the Brazilian Major Regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (47.1%), South (29.3%), Southeast (9.3%), Northeast (8.6%) and North (5.7%).

Highlights in the February 2024 estimate in relation to the previous month

Compared with January, the output estimates of (6.2% or 84 759 t), coffea canephora (1.4% or 15 077 t), beans - 1st crop (1.4% or 13 855 t), beans - 3rd crop (0.8% or 5 485 t), cocoa (0.7% or 1 990 t) and tomatoes (0.6% or 26 632 t) increased, whereas the output estimates of barley (-14.9% or -72 354 t), wheat (-6.6% or -682 744 t), oat (-6.2% or -75 958 t), corn - 1st crop (-3.0% or -782 970 t), potatoes - 1st crop (-2.0% or -33 622 t), grapes (-1.2% or -20 117 t), tobacco (-0.9% or -5 783 t), soybeans (-0.8% or -1 161 714 t), potatoes - 2nd crop (-0.7% or -8 964 t) and corn - 2nd crop (-0.1% or -53 547 t) declined.  

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution:  Central-West, 141.6 million tonnes (47.1%); South, 88.1 million tonnes (29.3%); Southeast, 28.0 million tonnes (9.3%); Northeast, 25.8 million tonnes (8.6%) and North, 17.2 million tonnes (5.7%).

The major positive changes in the production estimate, in relation to the previous month, came from Rondônia (338 468 t), Bahia (276 958 t), Maranhão (137 271 t), Acre (14 671 t) and Ceará (924 t). The negative changes occurred in Paraná (-1 623 300 t),  Minas Gerais (-917 544 t), Goiás (-705 744 t), Rio Grande do Sul (-180 521 t), Pará (-62 287 t), Amapá (-68 t), Espírito Santo (-12 t) and Rio de Janeiro (-11 t).

POTATOES - Considering the three crops of the product, the output of potatoes should reach 4.1 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.0% in relation to the January forecast. Paraná, whose production estimate reduced 2.1%, stood out and should reach an output of 733.6 thousand tonnes. The Brazilian output of potatoes should decline 3.2% in relation to 2023.

COCOA (nuts) - The production estimate was 297.0 thousand tonnes, representing an increase of 0.7% against the previous month and of 2.2% in relation to 2023. The higher productivity of the crops was the major reason for this growth. In February, it increased 0.6% in relation to the previous month and 1.5% in relation to 2023. Rondônia reassessed its estimates this month, with a growth of 39.1% in the production estimate.

COFFEE (bean) - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee amounted to 3.6 million tonnes, or 59.3 million 60-kg sacks, with an increase of 0.4% against the previous month and of 4.2% against 2023. The average yield of 1 835 kg/ha, in turn, increased 0.4% in the monthly comparison and 3.0% in the annual one.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was of 2.5 million tonnes or 41.0 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 3.9% in relation to the previous year. A positive biennial bearings was expected for the harvest this year, therefore an increase in the output in relation to the previous year. Climate has benefited the crops in the major producing Federation Units up to now, which should favor the productivity of the coffee crops.

For coffea canephora, the production estimate was 1.1 million tonnes or 18.4 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 1.4% in relation to the previous month and of 4.8% in relation to 2023. In Espírito Santo, the major Brazilian producer, with nearly 61.7% of the total output, the estimate of conillon should reach 679.4 thousand tonnes or 11.3 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 0.9% against the previous month and of 5.5% in relation to 2023. In Rondônia, the second biggest producer of coffea canephora (robusta), with 21.2% of share in the Brazilian harvest, the production estimate reached 233.1 thousand tonnes or 3.9 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 4.1% in relation to January and in relation to the previous year. In Bahia, the estimated a production was of 153.4 thousand tonnes or 2.6 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 5.1% over 2023. 

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. Concerning wheat (grain), the output should reach 9.6 million tonnes, a decline of 6.6% in relation to January and an increase of 24.2% in relation to 2023, when an expected record harvest of the cereal was frustrated due to a series of climate problems that jeopardized the crops in the South Region. 

The output of oat (grain) was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 6.2% over January and a growth of 29.5% against 2023. The average yield grew 30.7%, recovering in relation to 2023, when the harsh weather jeopardized the oat crops in the Brazilian South Region. The biggest producers of this cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 848.1 thousand tonnes, a decline of 1.8% in relation to January and a growth of 45.2% in relation to that harvested in 2023, and Paraná, with 247.5 thousand tonnes, a decline of 19.6% in relation to the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in relation to that harvested in 2023. 

For barley (in grain), the estimated production was of 411.9 thousand tonnes, a decline of 14.9% over January and an increase of 8.6% in relation to what was produced in 2023. The average yield grew 12.8%, recovering in relation to 2023, when the harsh weather jeopardized the oat crops in the Brazilian South Region. The biggest producers of barley were Paraná, with 278.0 thousand tonnes, a decline of 20.6% in relation to January and a growth of 0.1% in relation to 2023, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 110.5 thousand tonnes, a decline of 0.3% in relation to January and an increase of 39.7% in relation to that harvested in 2023. These states should account for 94.3% of the Brazilian output of barley in 2023. 

BEAN (seed) - Considering the three crops of the product, the estimate of the output of beans for 2024 should reach 3.2 million tonnes, a growth of 3.4% in relation to the previous month and of 8.1% in relation to 2023. This production should address the Brazilian domestic consumption in 2024, not requiring to import the product. 

The production estimate of the first crop of beans was of 1.0 million tonnes, an increase of 1.4% in relation to January, highlighted by Paraná, which rose 6.9%, Rio Grande do Sul with 5.6% and Rondônia with 17.9%, whereas Goiás declined 5.6%. The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, an increase of 6.2% in relation to the last survey, following the estimate for the average yield, which rose 2.0%, and for the area to be harvested, which grew 4.2%. Paraná grew 13.7% in its estimated production. As for the third crop of beans, the estimated production was of 724.0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.8% against the estimate of January, with an increase in the area to be harvested of 0.2%. 

TOBACCO (leaf) - The production estimate of tobacco was of 632.5 thousand tonnes, representing a reduction of 0.9% against the previous month and of 9.0% in relation to 2023. The drop in the productivity of the crops was the major reason for this decrease. In February, it decreased 1.1% in relation to the previous month and 10.3% in relation to 2023. The excess of rainfall was the major reason for the drop in the productivity of the crops.

CORN (grain) - The estimate for the output of corn added up to 116.9 million tonnes, representing a drop of 0.7% in relation to the previous month, due to a drop of 0.5% in the average yield, which should reach 5 548 kg/ha. The monthly drop in the total production was more related to the first crop, which lost 3.0%, influenced by the reduction of 2.5% in the productivity and of 1.2% in the planted area. Climate conditions and a less favorable market remained inhibiting producer to invest in this cereal. 

Corn - 1st crop registered a production estimate of 25.1 million tonnes, 3.0% lower or less 783.0 thousand tonnes in relation to the previous month, due to a drop of 2.5% in the average yield (5 253 kg/ha). The Southeast, South and Central-West recorded significant reductions of 6.2%, 3.9% and 0.9%, respectively, and the North and Northeast regions grew 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively. In relation to 2023, the production estimate fell 9.6%, mainly influenced by the reduction in the planted area and in the area to be harvested of 8.8% and 7.7%, respectively. 

The estimate for corn- 2nd crop added up to 91.8 million tonnes, representing a drop of 11.2% in relation to the previous year, as well as of 0.1% or 53.5 thousand tonnes in relation to the previous month. The reductions of 4.0% in the planted area and of 7.7% in the average yield (5 635 kg/ha), in annual terms, justify the results. In monthly terms, the planted area and the area to be harvested slightly reduced, and the regions slightly changed. The Central-West declined 0.1% and should account for 70.2% of the national output in 2023, causing an impact of less 81.3 thousand tonnes. 

SOYBEAN (grain) - The national output of soybeans should reach 149.3 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.8% over the amount obtained last year, and it should represent nearly half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in 2024. The effects caused by the climate phenomenon El Niño, characterized by the excess of rainfall in the states of the South Region and the lack of regular rainfall, coupled with high temperatures in the center-north of Brazil, limited the productive potential of this legume in most producing Federation Units, explaining the drop of 0.8% in the amount produced in relation to the survey shown last month. 

TOMATOES - The amount produced was estimated at 4.1 million tonnes, according to the February data, i.e., an increase of 0.6% over January. The national average yield was 74 414 kg/ha, the highest one in the time series since September 2006. Still in the monthly comparison, the production was bigger in the South (2.5%) and in the Central-West (1.7%). In the South, Paraná was responsible for the good performance, having its average yield increased by 6.5%, reaching 60 375 kg/ha. In the Central-West, the output increased in Goiás, the biggest producer of tomatoes in Brazil with a share of 31.5%, registering 1.3 million tonnes in February. São Paulo was the second biggest producer, with 25.1% of the total, the equivalent to 1.0 million tonnes. It was followed by Minas Gerais, with 12.8% of the total or 531.2 thousand tonnes. In most Federation Units, the data did not change in the period or were not reassessed, which should occur in the next surveys.

GRAPE - The Brazilian production of grape should reach 1.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.2% against the previous month and of 6.2% against 2023 harvest.  The major national producers were Rio Grande do Sul, which estimated a production of 842.6 thousand tonnes, a decline of 2.3% in relation to the previous month and of 6.9% in relation to 2023, having retreated the average yield by 8.9% in the last comparison; Pernambuco, with an output of 398.8 thousand tonnes and a decline of 10.4%% in relation to 2023; São Paulo, with a production of 167.0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 3.0% in relation to 2023; Bahia, with a production of 62.0 thousand tonnes, a decline of 5.4% in relation to 2023; Santa Catarina, with an output of 56.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.6% in relation to 2023; and Paraná, with a production of 56.7 thousand tonnes, a decline of 0.4% in relation to 2023.