In January 2024, the national industrial production fell 1.6% compared to December 2023, in the seasonally adjusted series. In comparison with January 2023, the industry grew 3.6%, recording the sixth consecutive positive result in this type of comparison.

The cumulative index for the year grew 3.6% and that of the last twelve months increased 0.4%, intensifying the pace compared to the result recorded in December 2023 (0.2%), when the stability recorded in November ( 0.0%), October (0.0%) and September (0.0%) of 2023 was interrupted.

With a drop of 1.6% in January 2024, compared to the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, the industrial sector eliminated part of the 2.9% expansion accumulated in the period from August to December 2023. In this month's result , two of the four major economic categories and 6 of the 25 industrial sectors surveyed saw a reduction in production.

Among the activities, the most important negative influences came from mining and quarrying industries (-6.3%) and food products (-5.0%), with the former interrupting two consecutive months of growth in production, a period in which it accumulated gains of 6.7%; and the second eliminating part of the 11.3% expansion accumulated in July-December 2023. Other relevant negative contributions to the total industry came from wearing apparel and accessories (-6.4%) and textiles (-4.2%).

On the other hand, among the eighteen activities that showed expansion in production, chemicals (7.9%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (13.7%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (4.0%) and machinery and equipment (6.4%) had the main impacts in January 2024, with the first eliminating the 6.2% decline recorded in the previous month; the second accumulating expansion of 31.6% in two consecutive months of production growth; the third intensifying the increase seen last December (2.8%); and the fourth eliminating the 3.1% loss accumulated in the last two months of 2023.

Among the major economic categories, in comparison with the previous month, intermediate goods (-2.4%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-1.0%) recorded negative rates this month, with the first interrupting four consecutive months of advances in production, a period in which it accumulated expansion of 5.0%; and the second marking the first negative result since October 2023 (-0.2%). On the other hand, the sectors of durable consumer goods (1.4%) and capital goods (5.2%) showed positive results in January 2024, with the first registering growth of 7.8% in two consecutive months of progress in production; and the last one eliminating the 4.8% reduction accumulated in the period from September to December 2023.

Quarterly moving average changes 0.2% in quarter ended in January

Still in the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the total industry showed a positive change of 0.2% in the quarter ending in January 2024 compared to the level of the previous month. The trend kept the predominantly upward trajectory begun in February 2023.

Among the major economic categories, still in relation to the movement of this index on the margin, durable consumer goods (1.5%) showed the sharpest growth in January 2024 and intensified the advance registered last December (0.4%). The sectors of capital goods (1.0%) and intermediate goods (0.3%) also recorded positive results in January 2024, with the first interrupting two consecutive months of decline in production, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 2.3%; and the second maintaining the upward trend that began in August 2023. On the other hand, the segment of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, by falling 0.3%, showed the only negative result that month and remained on the predominantly downward trajectory that began in September 2023.

Compared to January 2023, industry increased 3.6%

In comparison with the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector registered an increase of 3.6% in January 2024, with positive results in four of the four major economic categories, 17 of the 25 sectors, 46 of the 80 groups and 49.8% of the 789 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that January 2024 (22 days) had the same number of working days as the same month in the previous year (22).

Among the activities, the main positive influences on the total industry were recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (9.1%), mining and quarrying industries (6.5%) and food products (3.8%), driven mainly by the greater production of diesel fuel, motor gasoline, aviation kerosene and fuel oils, in the first; iron ores, crude petroleum oils and copper ores and their concentrates (raw or processed), in the second; and fresh or coolled beef, pies, cakes and bran from the extraction of soybean oil, concentrated orange juices, food complements and vitamin and mineral supplements, refined and raw soybean oil, refined sugar from sugar cane and frozen poultry and offal, in the third. It is also worth highlighting the positive contributions made by the sectors of chemicals (5.2%), beverages (10.2%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (14.1%), wood products (16 .1%), basic metals (2.9%), other transportation equipment (6.9%), leather articles, travel articles and footwear (6.8%), printing and reproduction of recorded media ( 14.6%) and electrical machinery, apparatus and materials (3.1%).

On the other hand, still in comparison with January 2023, among the eight activities that showed a reduction in production, pharmaceuticals (-21.9%) exerted the greatest influence on the formation of the industry average, pressured, to a large extent, by the lower production of medicines. Other important negative impacts were recorded by maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-7.9%) and manufacturing of wearing apparel and accessories (-3.6%).

Among the major economic categories, still in comparison with the same month of the previous year, intermediate goods (4.8%) recorded, in January 2024, the sharpest expansion. The sectors producing semi- and non-durable consumer goods (2.6%), durable consumer goods (1.4%) and capital goods (0.4%) recorded the other positive rates this month.

The sector of intermediate goods increased 4.8% in January 2024 compared to the same period of the previous year, the sixth consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison and the most intense since June 2021 (10.9%). This month's result was mainly explained by advances in products associated with coke activities, petroleum products and biofuels (10.1%), mining and quarrying industries (6.5%), food products (5.1% ), chemicals (4.1%), basic metals (2.9%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.9%), machinery and equipment (2.4%) and pulp, paper and paper products (0.9%), while negative pressures were recorded by textiles (-3.7%), fabricated metal products (-1.4%), non-metallic mineral products (-0.1%) and rubber and plastic products (-0.1%). Still in this economic category, it is also worth mentioning the positive results recorded by the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (4.2%) and packaging (2.9%).

The production of semi- and non-durable consumer goods grew 2.6% in January 2024 compared to the same period of the previous year, after interrupting in December 2023 (-0.3%) four consecutive months of positive rates in this type of comparison. The positive performance this month was mainly explained by the increase observed in the group of foods and beverages prepared for domestic consumption (5.2%), largely driven by the greater production of fresh or coolled beef, soft drinks, beers and draft beer, concentrated orange juices, food complements and vitamin and mineral supplements, refined soybean oil, refined sugar from sugar cane and frozen poultry and offal. It is also worth mentioning the positive results recorded by the groups of fuels (6.3%), semi-durable goods (1.4%) and basic foods and beverages for domestic consumption (15.7%). On the other hand, the group of non-durable goods (-5.5%) had the only negative impact this month, pressured, to a large extent, by the lower production of medicines.

The durable consumer goods segment advanced 1.4% in January 2024, thus interrupting four consecutive months of decline in production: December (-0.9%), November (-8.6%), October ( -3.0%) and September (-3.0%) of 2023. In that month, the sector was driven, to a large extent, by the expansion observed in the “brown goods" groups (16.8%) and other household appliances (53.3%). It is also worth mentioning the largest manufacture of “white goods” (2.1%) and motorcycles (14.1%). On the other hand, the most important negative impact came from lower car production (-11.1%).

The capital goods sector showed a positive change of 0.4% in January 2024 compared to the same period of the previous year and interrupted nine consecutive months of negative rates in this type of comparison. In the formation of this month's index, the segment was influenced, mainly, by the advances observed in the groups of capital goods for miscellaneous purposes (30.9%), for transportation equipment (3.0%) and for industrial purposes (2.0%). 6%). On the other hand, the main negative impacts were recorded by the groups of agricultural capital goods (-14.7%), electricity (-10.4%) and construction (-17.5%).