In the third harvest estimate for 2024, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to reach 306.5 million tons, with an increase of 0.1% from the 2nd estimate (317,834 tonnes) and a drop of 2.8% from 2023 (8.9 million tonnes).

Decreases are expected in the production of corn-2nd crop (-12.8% or -13.2 million tonnes), corn 1st crop (-3.3% or -924.8 thousand tonnes), sorghum (-12.1% or -519.6 thousand tonnes) and upland cotton (-3.3% or – 254.7 thousand tonnes). Increase is estimated in the production of soybeans (1.7% or 2.6 million tonnes), beans (4.2% or 123.1 thousand tonnes), rice (1.6% or 162.2 thousand tonnes) and wheat (33.0% or 2.6 million tonnes). Area is expected to increase in the case of paddy rice (4.9%), wheat (0.6%), upland cotton (0.2%), beans (4.0%) and soybeans (0.9%), and to drop for sorghum (-2.3%), corn 1st crop (-5.0%) and corn 2nd crop (-4.3%).

Harvest in 2023 hit a record in the IBGE time series, which started in 1975, and reached 315.4 million tonnes, with an increase of 19.8% (or 52.2 million tonnes more) from 2022. The area harvested in 2023 reached 77.8 million hectares with an increase of 6.3% (or 4.6 million tonnes of hectares) from 2022.

The 12th estimate for the harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2023 reached 315.4 million tonnes, with an increase of 19.8% (or 52.2 million tonnes more) from 2022 (263.2 million tonnes), thus confirming the record in the time series, which started in 1975. The area to be harvested was 77.8 million hectares, increasing by 6.3% from 2022 (4.6 million hectares more). As for the estimate of November, the area to be harvested increased by only 15,346 hectares (0.0%).

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 93.1% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. Against 2022, there were increases of 4.2% in the area for corn (a drop of 2.1% in corn 1st crop and an increase of 6.2% in corn 2nd crop), of 7.6% in the area for upland cottonseed, of 28.2% in the area for sorghum, of 7.9% in that for wheat and of 8.2% in the area for soybeans, with drops of 8.7% in the areas for rice and of 7.0% for beans.

As for the output, there were increases of 27.1% for soybeans,of 14.7% for upland cottonseed, of 51.1% for sorghum, of 19.0% for corn, with increases of 9.1% for corn 1st crop and of 22.0% for corn 2nd crop, whereas paddy rice and wheat dropped by 3.5% and 22.8%, respectively.

The estimated production of soybeans was 152.0 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 131.1 million tonnes (27.7 million tonnes for corn first crop and 103.3 million tonnes for corn 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.3 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 7.8 million tonnes, that of upland cottonseed, at 7.7 million tonnes and that of sorghum, at 4.3 million tonnes.

From 2022, the output estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds increased in the five Major Regions: South (21.6%), Central-West (23.2%), Southeast (10.2%), North (24.5%) and Northeast (6.1%). Against the November estimate, there were increases in the Southeast (0.9%) and North (1.2%), and drops in the Northeast (-0.1%), Cental West and South (-0.1%) and South (-1.5%).

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso leads as the main national producer, with a share of 31.4%, followed by Paraná (14.4%), Goiás (10.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (9.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (8.6%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%), which, together, represented 79.9%. As for the participation of the Brazilian Major Regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (51.1%), South (25.3%), Southeast (9.7%), Northeast (8.6%) and North (5.3%).

Against November, there were increases in output estimates of coffea arabica (1.4% or 33 341 t), sorghum (0.8% or 34 827 t), coffea canephora (0.6% or 6 707 t), soybeans (0.2% or 293 743 t), corn 2nd crop (0.1% or 69 578 t), and drops in output estimates of oats (-18.1% or -197 556 t), wheat (-12.9% or -1 152 600 t), barley (-8.8% or -36 828 t), cashew nuts (-4.8% or -5 884 t), banana (-1.3% or -87 342 t), and corn 1st crop (-0.1% or -18 373 t).

Among the Major Regions, the output was distributed as follows: Central-West, 161.0 million tonnes (51.1%); South, 79.9 million tonnes (25.3%); Southeast, 30.7 million tonnes (9.7%); Northeast, 27.3 million tonnes (8.6%) and North, 16.8 million tonnes (5.3%).

Highlights of the December estimate for the 2023 harvest

The main absolute changes in output estimates from November were those of São Paulo (268 471 t), Pará (193 160 t), Goiás (52 314 t), Paraná (28 300 t), Rondônia (12 929 t), Minas Gerais (8 943 t), Santa Catarina (3 159 t), Acre (452 t). The negative changes were those of Rio Grande do Sul (-1 275 749 t), Federal District (-100 200 t), Mato Grosso do Sul (-73 735 t), Pernambuco (-16 527 t), Ceará (-12 288 t), Maranhão (-936 t), Rio de Janeiro (-744 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-238 t), Amapá (-86 t) and Espírito Santo (-11 t).

BANANA – The estimated production of banana is 6.9 million tonnes, a drop of 1.3% from the previous month. In relation to 2022, estimates fell by 2.9% (output); 1.9% (average yield) and 1.0% (area to be harvested).

COFFEE BEAN – The Brazilian output of two species, arabica and canephora, was 3.4 million tonnes or 57.0 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month and an increase of 8.9% from 2022. The average yield of 1 782 kg/ha, in turn, increased by 1.1% in the monthly comparison and by 5.4% in the annual one.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was of 2.4 million tonnes or 39.5 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 1.4% (33 341) from November and of 16.3% from the previous year. Although the harvest of coffea arabica was of negative biennial nature in 2023, production estimate increased from 2022, since the weather benefited the crops, promoting a reversion of the biennial aspect.

As for coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was of 1050.8 thousand tonnes or 17.5 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 0.6% from this month and a decline of 4.8% from 2022, due to the drop of 8.1% in average yield.

CASHEW NUTS – The production estimate was 116.8 thousand tonnes, a decline of 4.8% from the previous month and of 20.6% in the annual comparison.

WINTER CEREALS – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The output of wheat is expected to reach 7.8 million tonnes, with drops of 12.9% in relation to November and of 22.8% from 2022, when Brazil reached the biggest harvest in history.

The output estimate of oat was 893.3 thousand tonnes, with drops of 18.1% from November and of 25.7% from 2022. As of barley, the estimated output was 379.5 thousand, with decreases of 8.8% from November and of 24.6% from 2022.

CORN GRAIN – The production estimate of corn grew slightly by 51,205 tonnes (0.0%), against the previous month, adding up to 131.1 million tonnes. The Brazilian output of corn, in 2023, hit a record in the IBGE time series.

As for corn 1st crop, output reached 27.7 million tonnes and that represents a negative monthly change of 0.1%, a drop of 18,373 tonnes. In the case of corn 2nd crop, there was an increase of 0.1%, amounting to 103.3 million tonnes. Against 2022, the output of this cereal increased by 22.0%.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The national output of soybeans reached 152.0 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2% from November and a growth of 27.1% the from mount produced in 2022, and that must represent nearly half the total of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in 2023. Recovery of crop productivity in most of the country, was the main factor accounting for the increase in output.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The December estimate was 4.3 million tonnes, with increases of 0.8% against the figure in November, and of 51.1% from the amount obtained in 2022.

For 2024, harvest estimate is 2.8% smaller than in 2023

In this estimate, the Brazilian harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2024 is expected to reach 306.5 million tonnes, an increase of 0.1% from the second one or 317,834 tonnes, a drop of 2.8% (by 8.9 million tonnes) from 2023.

The decrease in production was due to the lower estimate for corn 2nd crop (-12.8% or -13,213 938 t), corn 1st crop (-3.3% or 924,768 t), sorghum (-12.1% or -519,550 t) and upland cottonseed (-3.3% or -254,688 t). Increase is expected for the production of soybeans (1.7% or 2,559,514 t), beans (4.2% or 123,142 t), rice (1.6% or 162,209 t) and wheat (33.0% or 2,557,315 t).

As for the expected area, positive changes were recorded in the case of paddy rice (4.9%), wheat (0.6%),upland cottonseed (0.2%), beans (4.0%) and soybeans (0.9%). Negative ones came from sorghum (-2.3%), corn 1st crop (-5.0%) and corn 2nd crop (-4.3%).

Destaques do terceiro prognóstico para 2024

UPLAND COTTON SEED – The estimate for cotton production is 7.5 million tonnes, an increase of 1.5% in relation to the second estimate with an increase of 1.0% in the planted area and an increase of 0.4% in the average yield. In relation to 2023, the estimates point to a reduction of 3.3% due to the forecast of lower crop productivity (-3.5%).

PADDY RICE – The estimate for 2024 points to a production of 10.4 million tonnes, a reduction of 0.3% in relation to the second forecast, and a growth of 1.6% compared to the volume produced in 2023. The planted area should grow by 3.7%; the area to be harvested, by 4.9% and the average yield should drop by 3.2%.

COFFEE BEAN – The estimate for coffee production, considering the two species: Arabica and Canephora (or conillon) is 3.5 million tonnes or 58.9 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 3.3% compared to the production in 2023.

For coffea arabica , the production is expected to reach 2,452.4 thousand tonnes (40.9 million 60kg sacks), an increase of 3.6% compared to 2023. The area to be harvested grew by 1.1%, and the average yield increased by 2.4%. In 2023, there should have been a negative biennial cycle for coffea arabica production in the country, leading to a reduction. However, the weather benefited the crops in 2023, resulting in a higher coffea arabica production in Brazil compared to the 2022 harvest. For 2024, the climate is not expected to be as favorable as it was in 2023.

For coffea Canephora (or conillon coffee), the estimated production is 1,080.4 thousand tonnes, or 18.0 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 2.8% compared to the volume produced in 2023. The harvested area and the average yield show increases of 0.8% and 2.0%, respectively.

BEAN SEED – The third estimate for bean production in 2024, considering the three bean crops, is 3.1 million tonnes, an increase of 0.1% compared to the second crop, and a 4.2% growth in relation to the crop harvested in 2023.

The 1st crop should produce 1.0 million tonnes; the 2nd crop, 1.3 million tonnes and the 3rd crop, 715.7 thousand tonnes. The estimated production must meet the domestic consumption in 2024, and there should be no pressure on consumer prices.

CORN GRAIN – The estimate for corn production is 116.9 million tonnes, a reduction of 10.8% compared to 2023 and a drop of 1.4% over the previous month's forecast. For the first corn crop, the estimated production was 26.8 million tonnes, a decline of 6.0% compared to the 2nd crop and 3.3% compared to the production in the same crop of 2023.

For the second corn crop, a production of 90.1 million tonnes was estimated, remaining stable in relation to the 2nd estimate and representing a decline of 12.8% compared to the year 2023. The data indicate drops of 4.4% and 4.3% in planted and harvested areas, respectively, and an 8.9% decrease in yield.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The third production estimate, for 2024, shows a projection of 97.2% of the field data, a positive adjustment of 1.3% in December to the national production, indicating that soybean production is expected to set a new record in the IBGE time series. The national oilseed production is expected to reach 154.5 million tonnes, surpassing the volume achieved in 2023 by 1.7%, representing more than half of the total volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The estimated sorghum production for 2024, according to the third estimate, is 3.8 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.4% in relation to the 2nd estimate and a drop of 12.1% compared to 2023.