The second prognosis of the national production of grains, cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2024 is 306.2 million tonnes, a drop of 3.2% (or 10.1 million tonnes less) compared to the previous crop. 

The November estimate for the 2023 crop is 316.3 million tonnes, an increase of 20.2% (or 53.1 million more tonnes) compared to the 2022 crop (263.2 million tonnes) and a decrease of 995.3 thousand tonnes (-0.3%) compared to the October estimate.

The area to be harvested (77.8 million hectares) grew 6.3% compared to 2022 (4.6 million hectares more) and decreased 0.2% (192,633 hectares less) compared to October.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products in this group, together represent 92.6% of the production estimate and account for 87.0% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2022, there was an increase of 4.3% in the corn area (a decline of 2.0% in corn 1st crop and an increase of 6.4% in corn 2nd crop) and also in upland  cotton (7.1%), sorghum (26.9%), wheat (8.8%) and soybeans (8.0%). There was a decline in the area of rice (-8.2%) and beans (-7.0%).

There were increases in soybean production (26.9%), upland cotton (14.4%), sorghum (49.9%) and corn (18.9%, with 9.2% more in corn 1st crop and more 21.9% in the 2nd crop). There were drops in the production of paddy rice (-3.9%) and wheat (-11.3%).

In November 2023, the IBGE carried out the second area and production prognosis for the Brazilian grain harvest (cereals, legumes and oilseeds) in 2024, which is expected to reach 306.2 million tonnes, a decline of 0.7% (or 2.3 million less tonnes) in relation to the October forecast and 3.2% (or 10.1 million less tonnes) compared to the 2023 crop, which was a record and, therefore, is a relatively high comparative basis. The decrease in production is mainly due to corn 2nd crop (-12.8% or -13,168,154 t), sorghum (-10.9% or -467,621 t) and upland cotton seed (- 4.4% or -208,433 t).

The forecast area should increase for paddy rice (4.6%), beans (5.3%), soybeans (0.1%) and corn 1st crop (0.1%), and decrease for sorghum (-1 .8%), wheat (-0.3%), corn 2nd crop (-4.4%) and upland cotton seed (-0.4%).

Production is expected to grow in Rio Grande do Sul (41.2%) and decline in Mato Grosso (-14.6%), Paraná (-1.4%), Goiás (-4.5%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-7.4%), Minas Gerais (-4.5%), Santa Catarina (-1.9%), Tocantins (-6.4%), Rondônia (-10.3%), São Paulo (- 3.2%), Bahia (-2.9%), Maranhão (-1.3%), Piauí (-3.9%), Pará (-5.9%) and Sergipe (-7.0%).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) ‒ The estimate for cotton production is 7.4 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2% in relation to the first prognosis, with an increase of 1.2% in the planted area and a reduction of 1. 0% on the average yield. In relation to 2023, the first estimates point to a reduction of 4.4% due to the forecast of lower crop productivity (-4.0%).

PADDY RICE ‒ The estimate for 2024 is 10.5 million tonnes, or 0.1% lower than the first forecast and growth of 2.3% in relation to the volume produced in 2023. The planted area should grow by 3.5%, the area to be harvested, by 4.6% and the average yield should drop by 2.2%.

BEANS (in seed) ‒ The second prognosis for bean production in 2024, considering the three crops, is 3.1 million tonnes, growth of 3.8% compared to 2023. The 1st crop should produce 1 .0 million tonnes; the 2nd crop, 1.3 million tonnes and the 3rd crop, 694.9 thousand tonnes. The estimated production must meet domestic consumption in 2024, and there should be no pressure on consumer prices.

CORN (in grain) ‒ The estimate for corn production is 118.6 million tonnes, a reduction of 9.5% in relation to the crop harvested in 2023. The reduction in cereal productivity by 6.4% (5 543 kg/ha) and in the area to be harvested (-3.3%) explain the results. In 2023, the weather benefited production during the second crop, with good volumes of rain and an extension of the wet period in the main producing Federation Units. For 2024, the weather and rain could harm crops. Furthermore, there is a decline in corn prices, which has reduced producers' profit margins.

SOYBEAN (in grain) ‒ The second production estimate, for 2024, indicates a new record in the IBGE time series, totaling 152.5 million tonnes, an increase of 0.6% compared to 2023, representing almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024. The estimate is for stability in the planted area. However, the average yield should be 0.5% higher than that of 2023, totaling 3,451 kg/ha. A reduction in production in the Central-West and Southeast is estimated, with an increase in the South, with the recovery of production in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024.

SORGHUM (in grain) ‒ The estimated sorghum production for 2024 is 3.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8% compared to the first prognosis and a drop of 10.9% compared to 2023. Production drops are expected in all the Major Regions: North (-10.5%), Northeast (-19.8%), Southeast (-10.4%), South (-9.0%) and Central-West (-10.4%). Compared to 2023, the area should decline by 1.8% and the average income should fall by 9.3%.

The area is expected to expand only in the Central-West (1.1%), in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Goiás, remaining stable in the Federal District. The national average yield is estimated at 2,962 kg/ha. The share of sorghum among cereals, legumes and oilseeds should be 1.2%. Goiás and Minas Gerais, the main national producers, estimate respective annual production drops of 10.9% and 13.5%, which should occur due to the lower average crop yield. In Goiás, production should reach 1,245.0 thousand tonnes and in Minas Gerais, 1,171.3 thousand tonnes.

November 2023 estimate is for a harvest of 316.3 million tonnes

The November 2023 estimate for the national crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds reached 316.3 million tonnes, 20.2% higher than that obtained in 2022 (263.2 million tonnes), growth of 53.1 million tonnes. In relation to the previous month, there was a decrease of 995.3 thousand tonnes (-0.3%). The area to be harvested was 77.8 million hectares, showing growth of 6.3% compared to the area harvested in 2022, an increase of 4.6 million hectares. In relation to the previous month, the area to be harvested showed a decrease of 192,633 hectares (-0.2%).

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which, together, represent 92.6% of the estimated production and account for 87.0% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increases of 4.3% in the corn area (2.0% decline in corn 1st crop and 6.4% growth in corn 2nd crop), 7.1% in upland cotton (seed), 26.9% in sorghum, 8.8% in wheat and 8.0% in soybeans, with declines of 8.2% in the rice area and 7.0% in the of the beans.

With regard to production, there were increases of 26.9% for soybeans, 14.4% for upland cotton (seed), 49.9% for sorghum, 18.9% for corn, with increases of 9.2% in corn 1st crop and 21.9% in corn 2nd crop, while for paddy rice and wheat, there were decreases of 3.9% and 11.3%, respectively.

For soybeans, the production estimate was 151.7 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 131.0 million tonnes (27.8 million tonnes of corn 1st crop and 103.3 million tonnes of corn 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.2 million tonnes; that of wheat at 8.9 million tonnes; that of upland cotton (seed) at 7.7 million tonnes; and sorghum, at 4.3 million tonnes.

All five Major Regions showed positive annual changes in November

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed positive annual change for the five Major Regions: the South Region (23.4%), the Central-West (23.3%), the Southeast (9.2%), the North (23.0%) and the Northeast (6.2%). Regarding the monthly change, the Southeast Region presented stability (0.0%), while the others presented a decline: North Region (-0.1%), Central-West Region (-0.2%); Northeast Region (-1.2%) and South Region (-0.4%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 31.3%, followed by Paraná (14.4%), Goiás (10.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (9.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.0%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%) which, together, represented 80.2% of the total. Regarding the shares of Brazilian Regions, there is the following distribution: Central-West (51.0%), South (25.6%), Southeast (9.6%), Northeast (8.5%) and North (5.3%).

Highlights of the November 2023 estimate compared to the previous month

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Goiás (197,775 t), Maranhão (26,911 t), Minas Gerais (5,442 t), Pará (651 t) and Espírito Santo (435 t). The negative changes occurred in Mato Grosso (-540,287 t), in Paraná (-239,900 t), in Piauí (-162,287 t), in Alagoas (-106,189 t), in Santa Catarina (-69,587 t), in Pernambuco (-65,883 t), in Paraíba (-18,614 t), in Ceará (-9,930 t), in Rondônia (-9,063 t) and in Rio Grande do Norte (-4,778 t).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) ‒ The estimate for cotton production is 7.7 million tonnes, another record for Brazilian agriculture, with an increase of 1.7% in relation to the last estimate released. Compared to the previous year, growth was 14.4%, due to the 7.1% expansion in cultivated area and 6.8% in productivity. The expansion of the area, due to good prices, together with favorable weather, especially in the 2nd crop, a time when most of the crop is cultivated, boosted the growth of crop production.

CACAO (nuts) ‒ Brazilian cacao production is expected to reach 289.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 2.2% compared to the previous month, with a 6.9% increase in the area to be harvested and a 4.5% reduction in average income. The largest producers are Pará (149.4 thousand tonnes) and Bahia (120.0 thousand tonnes), which presented an increase of 5.3% in relation to October, as a result of the 10.0% growth in the harvested area and the 4.2% reduction in the average yield. In relation to 2022, production declined by 4.8%, mainly as a result of the reduction in average yield, which fell by 9.0%. The harvested area grew by 4.8%.

COFFEE (beans) ‒ Brazilian production, considering the two species, Arabica and Canephora, was 3.4 million tonnes, or 56.3 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 0.7% in relation to previous month and an increase of 7.6% compared to 2022. The average yield, of 1,762 kg/ha, in turn, increased by 0.1% in the monthly comparison and 4.2% in the annual comparison.

For Arabica coffee, estimated production was 2.3 million tonnes, or 38.9 million 60 kg bags, increases of 1,077 tonnes (0.0%) in relation to October and 14.7% in compared to the previous year. Although the Arabica coffee crop in 2023 is of negative bienniality, the production estimate grew compared to 2022. The weather benefited the crops, promoting an “inversion of this bienniality”.

For Canephora (or conillon) coffee, the production estimate was 1,044.1 thousand tonnes or 17.4 million bags of 60 kg, an increase of 2.2% in relation to the previous month and a decline of 5.5% in in relation to 2022, due to the decline of 8.4% in average yield.

CASHEW NUTS (almonds) ‒ The estimated production of cashew nuts was 122.7 thousand tonnes, a decline of 2.3% in relation to the previous month and 16.6% in the annual comparison. The harvested area, in turn, expanded by 0.3% in the annual comparison. The largest Brazilian producers of cashew nuts are Ceará, Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte. Ceará's production, of 69.6 thousand tonnes, represented 56.7% of the national total; that of Piauí, 21.0 thousand tonnes, 17.1%; and Rio Grande do Norte, 20.7 thousand tonnes, 16.8%.

Production in Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte increased, in November, by 2.6% and 6.6%, respectively, when compared to the previous month. Production in Piauí declined 21.8%. Despite the greater production in Ceará, the average yield is lower (254 kg/ha) compared to that of Piauí (287 kg/ha) and Rio Grande do Norte (429 kg/ha).

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) ‒ The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. Regarding wheat (in grain), production is expected to reach 8.9 million tonnes, declines of 2.8% compared to October and 11.3% compared to 2022, when Brazil harvested the largest harvest in history. The planted area grew 9.0% compared to the previous year, with the average yield declining 18.5%, to 2,607 kg/ha.

The South should account for 86.9% of national wheat production in 2023. In Paraná, the second largest national wheat producer, with a share of 41.0% in the total, production was estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, a decline of 5.3% compared to October and growth of 7.9% compared to 2022. In Rio Grande do Sul, the country's main wheat producer in 2023, with a share of 41.8% of the national total, the production estimate reached 3.7 million tonnes, a decline of 29.6% compared to 2022, with a 28.3% reduction in productivity expected, caused by excessively rainy weather during the crop cycle.

Oat production (in grain) was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 1.0% compared to October, however, a decrease of 9.3% compared to 2022. The largest producers of the cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 760.1 thousand tonnes, a decline of 16.8% compared to 2022; and Paraná, with 272.6 thousand tonnes, increases of 10.1% compared to the previous month and 22.4% compared to what was harvested in 2022. The South Region should contribute 97.4% to the Brazilian production of oats in 2023. Excessively rainy weather damaged the 2023 crop and the quality of the grains. The harvest period is closed.

For barley (in grain), the estimated production was 416.3 thousand tonnes, declines of 15.7% compared to October and 17.3% compared to what was produced in 2022. In annual terms, the decline in the average yield was 19.3%. The largest barley producers are Paraná, with 278.0 thousand tonnes, a decline of 22.5% compared to October and 19.2% compared to 2022; and Rio Grande do Sul, with 114.7 thousand tonnes, a decline of 19.6% compared to what was produced in 2022. These states should be responsible for 94.3% of Brazilian barley production in 2023. The excessively rainy weather harmed the 2023 crop.

BEANS (seed) ‒ The estimated production of the three bean crops in 2023 was 3.0 million tonnes, a decline of 1.2% compared to October. In this assessment, the Federation Units with the greatest participation in the crop production estimate were Paraná (23.0%), Minas Gerais (19.6%), Goiás (12.0%), Mato Grosso (10.0%) and Bahia (8.1%). The production estimate for bean 1st crop was 973.6 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the October estimate, mainly the result of the 3.2% decline in the harvested area. Growth in average income was 0.4%. Bean 2nd crop was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, a decline of 1.0% compared to October, with reductions of 2.0% in the area to be harvested and a 0.9% increase in average yield. Regarding the bean 3rd crop, the production estimate was 789.7 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.5% compared to the October estimate, with the area to be harvested increasing 0.4%.

CORN (in grain) ‒ The estimate for corn production totaled 131.0 million tonnes, a decline of 0.5% in relation to October 2023, although in relation to the same period in 2022 this value means an increase of 18. 9%. The harvested area fell by 0.7%, when compared to the previous month, reaching 147.1 thousand hectares; however, the average yield increased by 0.2%, reaching 5,919 kg/ha which, when compared to 2022, increased by 14.0%. With a representation of 7.5% in national production, the Northeast Region presented the biggest losses, reaching 320.5 thousand tonnes (-3.1%). Brazilian corn production, in 2023, is a record in the IBGE time series.

Corn 1st crop had a negative monthly change (-0.8%), a drop of 227.3 thousand tonnes, totaling a production of 27.8 million tonnes. A reduction in and 1.6% in the harvested area, or 84,710 hectares, justified this reduction, as productivity grew by 0.8% compared to the previous month (5,360 kg/ha).

The estimate for corn 2nd crop was 103.3 million tonnes, a decline of 415.7 thousand tonnes (-0.4%) compared to October 2023. In relation to the previous year, there were increases of 21.9% in production; 6.4% in the area to be harvested and 14.6% in the average yield.

SOYBEAN (grain) ‒ Production reached 151.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.1% compared to October. However, it represents an increase of 26.9% compared to the quantity produced in 2022, and should represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in the year. The recovery in crop productivity compared to 2022 was the main factor responsible for this increase.

With the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, which suffered from another year of severe drought, crops in the other Federation Units presented good conditions in the field, confirming a new record for this legume production in the country, surpassing the volume achieved in 2021. The new adjustment in production in relation to the previous month is mainly due to a reduction of 314.9 thousand tonnes in Mato Grosso and 57.1 thousand tonnes in production in Piauí.

SORGHUM (grain) ‒ The November estimate for sorghum production was 4.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.9% compared to October, and 49.9% compared to that obtained in 2022. In comparison with October, there were reviews in sorghum production only in the Northeast and Central-West. In the Northeast, production increased by 26.0%; the area, 18.3%, and the average income, 6.5%. Piauí, Pernambuco and Alagoas were responsible for these adjustments in the Region that represents 6.0% of the sorghum produced in Brazil. In the Central-West, reviews took place in Mato Grosso and Goiás, which has the highest national participation (32.7%).

GRAPES ‒ Brazilian grape production was 1,721.5 thousand tonnes in 2023, an increase of 2.4% compared to October and 14.6% compared to 2022. In November, the crop was impacted by the increase of 10, 1% in production in Pernambuco, the second largest producer in the country. The harvested area increased by 10.2%. The irrigated perimeter of Petrolina/PE and Juazeiro/BA concentrates the production of fine table grapes, with a focus on export and, in the last decade, also on the domestic market.