The first forecast for the national production of grains, cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2024 is a harvest of 308.5 million tonnes, a drop of 2.8% (or less 8.8 million tonnes) compared to the 2023 crop.

The October estimate for the 2023 Crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds reached 317.3 million tonnes, an increase of 20.6% (or 54.1 million more tonnes) compared to the 2022 Crop (263.2 million tonnes ). In relation to September, there was a decrease of 803.2 thousand tonnes (-0.3%).

The area to be harvested (78.0 million hectares) grew 6.5% compared to 2022 (4.8 million more hectares) and 0.2% (183,508 more hectares) compared to September.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products in this group, together represent 92.5% of the estimated production and account for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2022, there were increases of 5.0% in the corn area (decline of 0.4% in corn 1st crop and increase of 6.8% in corn 2nd crop), of 6.3% in upland cotton seed, 23.7% in sorghum, 8.9% in wheat and 8.1% in soybeans, with declines of 7.9% in the rice area and 4.7% in the bean area.

In production, there were increases of 27.0% in soybeans, 12.5% in upland cotton seed, 47.2% in sorghum and 19.5% in corn (10.1% more in corn in 1st crop and 22.4% more in the 2nd crop). In paddy rice and wheat, there were drops of 4.0% and 8.7%, respectively.

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In October 2023, the IBGE carried out the first area and production forecast for the Brazilian grain crop (cereals, legumes and oilseeds) in 2024, which is expected to reach 308.5 million tonnes, a decline of 2.8% (or 8.8 million less tonnes) compared to the 2023 crop, which was a record and, therefore, a relatively high basis for comparison. The decrease in production is mainly due to soybeans (-1.3% or -1,985,180 t) and corn (-5.6% or -7,331,066 t).

In relation to the predicted area, positive changes are expected for paddy rice (4.5%), beans (1.6%) and sorghum (0.2%), and negative changes are expected for soybeans (-0. 6%), corn (-0.4%), upland cottonseed (-0.8%) and wheat (-0.3%).

Production is expected to grow in Rio Grande do Sul (41.2%) and decline in Mato Grosso (-8.1%), Paraná (-9.6%), Goiás (-6.5%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-7.4%), Minas Gerais (-4.6%), Santa Catarina (-7.8%), Tocantins (-6.4%), Rondônia (-2.9%), São Paulo (- 3.2%), Bahia (-2.9%), Maranhão (-0.9%), Piauí (-6.2%), Pará (-10.7%) and Sergipe (-7.0% ).

UPLAND COTOONSEED – The estimate for cotton production is 7.4 million tonnes, 3.0% lower than the 2023 harvest, with a decrease of 0.8% in the area to be planted and the area to be be harvested, the latter expected to reach 1.7 million hectares. The average yield, of 4,301 kg/ha, is expected to fall by 2.2%. In 2023, the climate favored cotton production, notably in the 2nd harvest, when the majority of the crop is produced.

PADDY RICE – The first estimate for 2024 is the production of 10.5 million tonnes, 2.5% higher than in 2023, with a 4.5% larger area to be harvested and an average yield 1.9% lower. This production should be sufficient to supply the Brazilian domestic market.

BEANS (seed) – The first forecast for bean production for 2024, considering the three crops, is 2.9 million tonnes, a decline of 3.6% in relation to the crop harvested in 2023. The 1st crop must produce 1.0 million tonnes; the 2nd crop, 1.2 million tonnes and the 3rd crop, 693.1 thousand tonnes.

CORN (grain) – The estimate for corn production is 124.3 million tonnes, a reduction of 5.6% in relation to the crop harvested in 2023. This value reflects a lower production in corn 2nd crop ( -8.2%), which accounts for a significant decline in productivity of 7.5%.

In 2023, the weather favoured production during the second crop, with good volumes of rainfall and an extension of the wet period in the main producing Federation Units. For 2024, the weather and rainfall volumes may fall short of the crops' needs, which could influence their yield, as planting only starts at the beginning of next year. Furthermore, there is a decline in corn prices on the market, which has reduced producers' profit margins.

SOYBEAN (grain) – The first production estimate, for 2024, indicates that soybean production should fall by 1.3% in relation to 2023, although the expected production for Rio Grande do Sul is recovering, and presents a growth of 65.0%, to 20.9 million tonnes. The production volume was estimated at 149.8 million tonnes of soybeans, which should represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024. If confirmed, it will be the second largest soybean production, losing only for 2023, when it was a production record in the IBGE time series.

SORGHUM (grain) – The estimated sorghum production for 2024 is 3.8 million tonnes, a drop of 10.0% compared to 2023. Production drops are expected in all Major Regions, with the exception of the Northeast, where there is an expectation of an increase of 1.6%, especially in Bahia and Alagoas. In Goiás and Minas Gerais, the main producers, drops of 10.9% and 13.5% in production are expected, respectively, with a lower average crop yield.

October 2023 estimate is for a harvest of 317.3 million tonnes

The October 2023 estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds reached 317.3 million tonnes, 20.6% higher than that obtained in 2022 (263.2 million tonnes), growth of 54.1 million tonnes. In relation to the previous month, there was a decrease of 803.2 thousand tonnes (-0.3%). The area to be harvested was 78.0 million hectares, showing a growth of 6.5% compared to the area harvested in 2022, an increase of 4.8 million hectares. In relation to the previous month, the area to be harvested increased by 183,508 hectares (0.2%).

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which, together, represent 92.5% of the estimated production and account for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increases of 5.0% in the corn area (0.4% decline in corn 1st crop and 6.8% growth in corn 2nd crop), 6.3% in upland cotoonseed, 23.7% in sorghum, 8.9% in wheat and 8.1% in soybeans, with declines of 7.9% in the rice area and 4.7% in the from feijão.

With regard to production, there were increases of 27.0% for soybeans, 12.5% for upland cotoonseed, 47.2% for sorghum, 19.5% for corn, with increases of 10.1% in corn 1st crop and 22.4% in the corn 2nd crop, while for paddy rice and wheat, there were decreases of 4.0% and 8.7%, respectively.

For soybeans, the production estimate was 151.8 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 131.7 million tonnes (28.0 million tonnes of corn 1st crop and 103.7 million tonnes of corn 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.2 million tonnes; that of wheat at 9.2 million tonnes; that of upland cotoonseed at 7.6 million tonnes; and sorghum, at 4.2 million tonnes.

All five Major Regions showed positive annual changes in October

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed positive annual change for the five Major Regions: the South Region (23.9%), the Central-West (23.6%), the Southeast (9.2%), the North (23.0%) and the Northeast (7.5%). As for the monthly change, the North region (1.3%) and the Central-West region (0.3%) showed increases; stability, the Southeast region (0.0%) and the Northeast Region (0.0%). The South Region showed a decline of 1.9%.

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 31.4%, followed by Paraná (14.4%), Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (9.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.0%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%), which, together, represented 80.2% of the total. Regarding the participation of Brazilian Regions, there is the following distribution: Central-West (50.9%), South (25.7%), Southeast (9.6%), Northeast (8.6%) and North (5.2%).

Highlights in the October 2023 estimate compared to the previous month

The main absolute positive changes in production estimates, compared to the previous month, occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul (594,061 t), Pará (231,654 t), Rondônia (720 t) and Bahia (74 t). Negative changes occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-1,119,877 t), Paraná (-426,900 t), Goiás (-53,510 t), Amazonas (-19,638 t), Minas Gerais (-4,532 t), Ceará (-2,674 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-1,746 t), Amapá (-441 t) and Rio de Janeiro (-420 t).

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. Regarding wheat (grain), production is expected to reach 9.2 million tonnes, a decline of 12.9% compared to September and 8.7% compared to 2022, when Brazil harvested the largest crop in history. The planted area grew 8.9% compared to 2022, with the average yield declining 16.2%, to 2,681 kg/ha.

Oat production (grain) was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, with declines of 12.6% compared to September and 10.2% compared to 2022. For barley (grain), the estimated production was 493.6 thousand tonnes, a decline of 10.3% compared to September and 2.0% compared to what was produced in 2022.

CORN (grain) - The estimate for corn production totaled 131.7 million tonnes, a drop of 0.1% compared to September 2023. Although productivity, at 5,909 kg/ha, shows an increase of 0.1%. The main losses were in production in Paraná (-0.3%) and Goiás (-0.6%), the 2nd and 3rd largest Brazilian producers of the cereal, respectively. However, in relation to the same period in the previous year, national production showed a growth of 19.5%, registering a record in the IBGE time series.

Corn 1st crop showed a slight drop in production, of 12,350 tonnes (-0.0%), compared to the previous month, totaling 28.0 million tonnes. Production declines were seen mainly in Goiás (-0.6% or 8,304 tonnes), Ceará (-0.3% or 1,060 tonnes), Rio Grande do Sul (-1,659 tonnes) and Paraná (-1,200 tonnes). However, compared to the previous year, corn 1st crop production grew by 10.1% due to the increase in average yield, by 10.4%, reaching 5,317 kg/ha. In most of the producing Federation Units, the weather benefited crops.

The estimate for cotn 2nd crop was 103.7 million tonnes, a drop of 0.1% (59,232 tonnes less) compared to September 2023. Despite the 0.1% increase in average yield (6,092 kg/ ha), there was a 0.1% reduction in the harvested area (20.7 thousand less hectares). In relation to 2022, there were increases of 22.4% in production, 6.8% in the area to be harvested and 14.6% in average yield.

SOYBEAN (grain) - Production reached 151.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.4% compared to September and 27.0% compared to the amount produced in 2022, representing almost half of the total of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in the year. The recovery of crop productivity, in most of the country, in comparison with the average yield achieved in 2022, was the main factor responsible for this increase. With the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, which suffered a year of severe drought, the crops in the other Federation Units presented good production conditions, confirming a new record for legume production in the country, surpassing the volume achieved in 2021.

SORGHUM (in grain) – The October estimate for sorghum production was 4.2 million tonnes, an increase of 2.7% compared to that released in September, and 47.2% compared to that obtained in 2022. Compared to 2022, there was an increase in area in the North (56.1%), Southeast (75.2%) and Central-West Regions (38.4%). In the Northeast and South, there were area reductions of 5.3% and 66.9% respectively.

Average yieds, in turn, grew in all Major Regions, except in the Northeast, where it fell 9.8%, influenced by Bahia (-15.8%), Maranhão (-7.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul. North (-21.4%). In Piauí, there were drops in production and area, partially offset by gains in average yield.

PADDY RICE – Rice production reached 10.2 million tonnes, growth of 1.2% compared to September, however, a decrease of 4.0% compared to what was produced in 2022. Although, the average yield grew 4.3% compared to 2022, the planted area and harvested area declined 8.6% and 7.9%, respectively.

SUGARCANE – The estimated sugarcane production was 707.7 million tonnes, an increase of 1.0% compared to the previous month and 13.1% compared to 2022. The yield The average yield of the sugarcane field increased by 0.5% in September, reaching 78,245 kg/ha, the national average. Approaching the end of the harvest in the Center-South Region, harvest estimates are being determined with greater accuracy.

The harvested area also increased by 0.5%, 2.7% higher than the 2022 area, which represents an increase of almost 240,000 hectares, exceeding the 9.0 million hectares cultivated. The growth of the harvest is due to good amounts of rainfalls, mainly in January and February 2023. Furthermore, there were no frosts and water deficits in the development phase, factors that harmed the results of the crops in the last 3 years.

TOMATOES – Production should reach 3.9 million tonnes in the 2023 crops, according to October estimates. This amount is 1.5% lower than the previous month's estimate, showing stability in relation to that produced in 2022. The average yield shows a decline of 1.2% in relation to the previous month and 1.7% in relation to 2022.

Keywords: IBGE prevê safra de 308, 5 milhões de toneladas para 2024, com queda de 2, 8% frente a 2023