In September, Brazil’s industrial output changed by 0.1%, in the seasonally adjusted series, with positive rates in only five of the 15 areas surveyed. Pará recorded the biggest increase, followed by Rio de Janeiro (3.1%), Ceará (2.2%), Paraná (1.8%) and Goiás (1.2%). The other drops were registered in Pernambuco (-12.8%), Amazonas (-6.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-5.4%) and Northeast Region (-5.2%). The other negative figures were recorded by Espírito Santo (-4.8%), Mato Grosso (-4.3%), Bahia (-3.0%), São Paulo (-1.1%) and Santa Catarina (-0.2%). Against September 2022, industry increased by 0.6%; the same was observed in 18 other areas surveyed. Rio Grande do Norte (40.2%), Pará (14.5%) and Espírito Santo (14.2%) registered the main increases.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, five of the 15 areas surveyed registered positive rates in September, following the positive change (0.1%) of the national industrial production. This month, Pará (16.1%) recorded a two-digit increase and the highest one, after a loss of 14.1% in the period June-August 2023. Rio de Janeiro (3.1%), Ceará (2.2%), Paraná (1.8%) and Goiás (1.2%) complete the group of areas with positive indexes in September.

On the other hand, Pernambuco (-12.8%), Amazonas (-6.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-5.4%) and Northeast Region (-5.2%) reported the main drops in production this month, with the first place recording a cumulative drop of 17.5% in four consecutive months of decrease; the second, making up for part of the 10.2% increase observed in August; the third dropping again after an advancee of 5.4% in the previous month; and the last one recording the fourth negative rate in a row, with a drop of 12.0% in the period. Espírito Santo (-4.8%), Mato Grosso (-4.3%), Bahia (-3.0%), São Paulo (-1.1%) and Santa Catarina (-0.2%) recorded the main negative results in September. Minas Gerais (0.0%) recorded a null change, the same as in the previous year.

The quarterly moving average index of industry showed a null change (0.0%) in the quarter ended September 2023 compared to the level in the previous month, thus repeating the results of August and July. In regional terms, also in relation to the marginal movement of this index, ten of the fifteen areas surveyed recorded negative rates, among which stand out drops recorded by Pernambuco (-5.7%), Bahia (-4.0%), Northeast Region (-2.8%), Amazonas (-1.9%) and Mato Grosso (-1.2%). On the other hand, Paraná (1.8%), Rio de Janeiro (1.4%) and Goiás (0,9%) accounted for the main increases in September.

Against July 2022, the industrial sector advanced by 0.6% in September 2023, with positive results in ten of the 18 areas surveyed. It is worth mentioning that September 2023 (20 days) had one less business day than the same month in the previous year (21).

The main increases were those in Rio Grande do Norte (40.2%), Pará (14.5%) and Espírito Santo (14.2%), with two-digit advances, mainly due to the sectors of coke, petroleum and biofuels (automotive gasoline and diesel), in the first area; mining and quarrying industry (crude or prcesses iand copper ore), in the second; and mining and quarrying industry (iron ore pellets or sinter, crude petroleum oil and natural gas) in the last one.

Paraná (8.9%), Rio de Janeiro (8.5%), Goiás (6.7%), Mato Grosso (6.0%), São Paulo (1.1%) and Santa Catarina (0.9%) also. recorded increases above the national average (0.6%), whereas Minas Gerais (0,6%) completed the group of areas with increase in production of the monthly index of September 2023.

On the other hand, Ceará (-11.9%), Northeast Region (-9.4%) and Bahia (-9.0%) recorded the main decreases in the month, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (-6.0%), Maranhão (-5.4%), Pernambuco (-4.6%), Amazonas (-1.9%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-0.3%).

As for the cumulative index in the year, against the same period in 2022, the national output (-0.2%) recorded decreases in eight of the 18 areas surveyed, with a highlight to Ceará (-7.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (-5,1%) and Northeast Region (-4.9%). Bahia (-4.5%), Maranhão (-3.6%), Santa Catarina (-2.6%), São Paulo (-1.4%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-1,2%) complete the group of areas with decrease in productioncumulative in the year.

On the other hand, Rio Grande do Norte (17.1%), Espírito Santo (7,6%) and Amazonas (5,0%) accounted for the main increases, whereas Mato Grosso (4.5%), Rio de Janeiro (4.4%), Minas Gerais (4.0%), Pará (3.6%), Goiás (2.7%) and Paraná (0. 2%) recorded the other positive results this month. Pernambuco (0.0%) had a null change and repeated the production level of the same period January-September 2022.

The cumulative index in the last 12 months had a null change (0.0%) in September 2023, and remained stable as observed in the last few months: August (-0.1%), July (0.0%), June (0.1%) and May (0.0%). In regional terms, ten of the fifteen places surveyed had positive rates in September 2023 but nine accelerated from indexes registered last August. Pará (from -2.5% to 0.1%), Espírito Santo (from -1.0% to 1.2%), Paraná (from -4.0% to -2.6%), Santa Catarina (from -3.8% to –3.1%), Goiás (from 1.8% to 2.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (from 4.9% to 5.3%) recorded the main increases between August and September 2023. The main drops were in Mato Grosso (from 5.5% to 3.7%), Ceará (from -7.4% to -8.5%), Northeast Region (from -6.0% to -6.9%), Amazonas (from 4,9% to 3.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (from -3.5% to –4.3%) and Bahia (from -5.2% to -5.9%).

In thecomparison between Q3 2023 with Q2, both comparisons agaist the same period a year ago, nine of the 18 areas surveyed accelerated, following th omvement observed in the national total, which changed from -0.1% to 0.0%. The main increases were registered by Rio Grande do Norte (from 11.8% to 46.7%), Espírito Santo (from 3,8% to 23.7%), Maranhão (from -14.3% to -3.,8%), Goiás (from 1.8% to 6.2%) and Paraná (from -1.0% to 2.3%), whereas Pará (from 13.1% to 0.5%), Amazonas (from 5.1% to -3.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (from -0.2% to -4.9%), Bahia (from -2.2% to -6.2%) and Minas Gerais (from 3.9% to 0.9%) recorded the main losses between the two periods.