In September 2023, industry prices changed 1.11% compared to August, the second positive result in a row. There was an increase in prices in 13 of the 24 industrial activities. The cumulative result for the year was -5.43%, the lowest for a month of September since the beginning of the series, in 2014. The cumulative result for 12 months was -7.92%.

In September 2022, the IPP had been -1.89%.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) for Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures "factory gate” prices of products, without taxes and freight, and covers the major economic categories.

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Among the activities analyzed, the four most intense changes were: petroleum refining and biofuels (8.28%); beverages (-5.09%); mining and quarrying industries (3.86%); and printing (1.78%). petroleum refining and biofuels were the most prominent industrial sector in the aggregate result, in the monthly comparison. The activity was responsible for 0.85 percentage points (pp) of influence on the 1.11% change in the general industry.

Other highlighted activities were mining and quarrying industries, with 0.19 pp of influence, beverages (-0.13 pp) and other chemical products (0.12 pp).

The cumulative result for the year was -5.43%. By way of comparison, in the last year (2022) the cumulative rate until the month of September had been 5.95%. The value of the cumulative rate in the year up to this reference month is the lowest ever recorded for a month of September since the beginning of the tim series, in 2014.

Among the activities, the biggest cumulative changes in the year were: other chemicals (-16.08%), paper and pulp (-15.94%), petroleum refining and biofuels (-13.33%) and mining and quarrying industries ( 9.07%).

The main influences came from petroleum refining and biofuels: -1.60 pp, other chemicals: -1.41 pp, food: -1.38 pp and paper and pulp: -0.54 pp.

The acumulative result in 12 months was -7.92% in September. In the previous month, this same indicator had registered a rate of -10.65%. The sectors with the four biggest price changes in the comparison between September and the same month of the previous year were: other chemicals (-25.44%); petroleum refining and biofuels (-18.39%); paper and pulp (-13.88%); and wood (-12.76%).

The sectors with the greatest influence on the aggregate result were: other chemicals (-2.44 pp); petroleum refining and biofuels (-2.28 pp); food (-1.52 pp); and basic metals (-0.71 pp).

Among the major economic categories, the September result had the following impact: 0.37% change in capital goods (BK); 1.81% in intermediate goods (BI); and 0.22% in consumer goods (BC), with the change observed in durable consumer goods (BCD) being 0.01%, while in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (BCND) it was 0.26 %.

The main influence came from intermediate goods, whose weight in the composition of the general index was 55.92% and accounted for 1.00 pp of the 1.11% change in mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries.

The list is completed by consumer goods, with an influence of 0.08 pp and capital goods with 0.03 pp. In the case of consumer goods, the influence observed in September is divided into 0.00 pp, which was due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods, and 0.08 pp associated with the change in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

In the year to date, the change in the major economic categories reached -1.29% for capital goods, -7.84% for intermediate goods and -2.38% for consumer goods. Durable consumer goods accrued 1.97% and semi- and non-durable consumer goods, -3.23%.

In terms of influence on the year to date, capital goods accounted for -0.10 pp of the -5.43% recorded in the general industry until September this year. Intermediate goods, in turn, accounted for -4.50 pp, while consumer goods exerted an influence of -0.84 pp on the industry's aggregate result, an influence that is divided into 0.11 pp due to changes in the prices of consumer goods. durable consumer goods and -0.95 pp caused by changes in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

In the 12-month period, the price change of capital goods was 1.00% in September/2023. The prices of intermediate goods, in turn, changed -12.00% in this one-year period and the change in consumer goods was -2.83%, with durable consumer goods showing a price change of 2.32%. % and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods of -3.83%.

With a weight of 7.78% in the calculation of the general index, capital goods were responsible for 0.07 pp of the -7.92% cumulative change in 12 months in the industry, in this reference month. In the September 2023 result, there was also an influence of -0.97 pp from consumer goods and -7.02 pp from intermediate goods.

The result of consumer goods, in particular, was influenced by 0.13 pp by durable consumer goods and -1.10 pp by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, the latter with a weight of 82.83% in the calculation of index of that large category.

Mining and quarrying industries – For the third consecutive month, the monthly change in prices in the sector is positive, 3.86% in September. As a result, the cumulative result for the year advances on the result of August, in September 9.07% against 5.01%. In the 12-month period, the change is still negative, -3.89%, but it is the least intense among the last 15 negative rates.

The changes observed in the sector's price place it among the four most intense monthly and year-to-date changes, both positive, and the year-to-date change is the only positive one. It is still the second biggest influence on the monthly basis (0.19 pp, at 1.11%).

Food - From August to September, prices in the sector changed by 0.45%, the first positive change after April (0.28%). The August data, released last month, changed following the arrival of new information received. The change in August versus July had been 0.08% and, with the revision, it rose to -0.16%.

Even with this positive result, the cumulative result for the year, as has been the case since February, is negative, -5.71%. As an illustration, in September 2022, the cumulative figure was 5.82%, that is, there is a difference of 11.53 pp between one point and the next. In terms of 12 months, the result is also negative, -6.41%. In this case, the changes have been negative since April, and in July the series reached its lowest point, -10.94%, and, since then, it has been losing intensity.

Food was the activity that exerted the third biggest influence both in the year (-1.38 pp, in -5.43%), and in the 12-month perido (-1.52 pp, in -7.92%).

The four products that most influenced the result, "frozen meat and poultry offal", "crystal sugar", "sterilized milk / UHT / Long Life" and "semi-milled or milled rice, whether or not polished or burnished", accounted for 0.70 pp, of 0.45%, that is, the other 39 products selected for the sector had a negative influence of 0.25 pp.

Beverages – In September, prices in the sector changed by -5.09%, the most intense decline since the beginning of the series. The cumulative result for the year fell from 7.14% in August to 1.69% in September. The annual change of 3.63% is the lowest since March 2021 (2.85%).

From August to September, the change in prices was the second most intense among all industrial activities (in this case, the only negative among the four most intense) and the third most influential (-0.13 pp, in 1. 11%).

Paper and pulp – Although it presented a monthly change of 1.18%, due to the occurrence of negative monthly values between December 2022 and June 2023, the activity presents a result of -15.94% accumulated in the year, the second highest among the activities of the general industry, in module. In the last 12 months (-13.88%) it was the third largest, in terms of module, among the activities of the general industry.

Three products - “wood chemical pulp, soda/sulfate , exc. dissolution paste” (with positive change), “uncoated kraft paper for packaging” (negative) and “toilet paper” (negative) – stood out both in terms of change and influence, in the monthly comparison. Adding the fourth highlight in terms of influence, “corrugated or corrugated cardboard boxes” (positive), the result is 1.22 pp, in 1.18%, therefore, the remaining seven products have a net negative influence on the result.

Petroleum refining and biofuels – From August to September, prices in the sector changed, on average, 8.28%, the second consecutive positive change, surpassing that of August (7.55%), which was the highest since April 2022 ( 6.68%). With this result, the cumulative result for the year was negatively less intense than August, going from -19.96% to -13.33% (in September 2022 it was 17.91%). In any case, this indicator has been negative since January. The cumulative index in 12 months, for the seventh consecutive month, presented a negative change, now of -18.39%, the highest since May (-28.05%).

The sector stands out both in terms of change and influence. In the case of change, it is the first most intense in the monthly comparison, the third in the cumulative in the year and the second in the cumulative in 12 months, in the last two cases with negative changes. In terms of influence, it was the first in the monthly comparison (0.85 pp in 1.11%) and in the cumulative in the year (-1.60 pp in -5.43%), and the second in the cumulative in 12 months (-2. 28 pp at -7.92%).

Other chemicals – In September, for the second consecutive month, chemical prices closed high at the factory gate, 1.56% higher than those of August (when prices had already increased 0.99%). The new increase indicates some short-term continuity in sectoral dynamics that have affected producer prices and internalizes movements that were being noticed in international markets, especially in petrochemicals. The cumulative indicators in the year and cumulative in 12 months, however, remain negative and are the most intense changes among the sectors analyzed, with results of -16.08% and -25.44%, respectively.

The sector remains a highlight in terms of influence on longer-term indicators, in this case, however, with a negative sign: -1.41 pp in -5.43% cumulative in the year in the IPP and -2.44 pp in the aggregate of -7.92% cumulative in 12 months (most intense influence in the latter case and second most intense in the year). Contributing to this protagonism with “distinct signs”, in addition to the weight of the sector in the calculation, the existence of a scenario different from the current one and with long continuity.

Basic metals – From August to September, the activity's price change was -0.90% in relation to the previous month, the fifth consecutive negative result observed in this indicator. As a result, in 2023, the prices of the activity will accumulate, on average, a drop of 8.19%, a value close to the cumulative value observed until September last year (-8.78%), but completely different from the cumulative result observed until the same month in 2021 (up 41.95%). In the last 12 months, the sector accrued a reduction of 11.43% in the period, making the activity stand out in the annual indicator, presenting the fourth most intense influence (-0.71 pp in -7.92%) among the 24 activities researched in the IPP.

The steel group showed a drop of 2.04% in September, compared to August. It is worth highlighting that this group, in addition to the drop observed in its main inputs (iron ores) in September, despite the increases in recent months, has also been affected by the low internal demand for steel products and the need to maintain prices competitive due to the greater volume of imports. changes in the group of non-ferrous metals are usually linked to international stock exchange prices and have been impacted, mainly, by changes in aluminum prices and the exchange rate (real against the dollar).

Keywords: Índice de Preços ao Produtor (IPP) é de 1, 11% em setembro