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In September, IBGE expects record harvest of 318.1 million tonnes for 2023

October 10, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 11, 2023 04h39 PM

The estimate for September for the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2023 was of 318.1 million tonnes, 20.9% higher than the 2022 harvest (263.2 million tonnes) and 1.5% higher (or more 4.8 million tonnes) than the August´s estimate. The area to be harvested was 77.8 million hectares, a rise of 6.3% (more 4.6 million hectares) in the year and of 0.4% over August (more 338,967 hectares).

September´s estimates for 2023 318.1 million tonnes
Change September 2023/August 2023 (+1.5%) or more 4.8 million tonnes
2023 harvest / 2022 harvest change (+20.9) or more 54.9 million tonnes

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 92.1% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. Compared with 2022, soybeans rose 26.5%, upland cottonseed, 12.3%, sorghum, 43.3%, corn, 19.6%, with increases of 10.1% for corn - 1st crop and of 22.4% for corn - 2nd crop, and of 4.8% for wheat. The output for paddy rice retreated 5.1%.

The are for corn increased 4.1% (decline of 0.3% for corn - 1st crop and growth of 6.9% for corn - 2nd crop), upland cotton, 6.2%, and sorghum, 23.7%.

The estimated production of soybeans in September was 151.2 million tonnes. For corn, the estimate was 131.7 million tonnes (28.0 million tonnes of corn - 1st crop and 103.8 million tonnes of corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.1 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 10.5 million tonnes, that of upland cottonseed, at 7.6 million tonnes and that of sorghum, at 4.1 million tonnes.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered a positive annual change in five Major Regions: Central-West (23.2%), South (26.3%), North (21.4%), Southeast (9.2%) and Northeast (7.6%). The regional distribution of the production was: Central-West, 161.0 million tonnes (50.6%); South, 83.0 million tonnes (26.1%); Southeast, 30.4 million tonnes (9.5%); Northeast, 27.3 million tonnes (8.6%) and North, 16.4 million tonnes (5.2%). The North (0.2%), Central-West (3.2%) and Southeast (0.3%) increased this month, whereas the South (-0.3%) and Northeast (-0.2%) dropped.

Highlights in the September 2023 estimate in relation to the previous month

In relation to August, the output estimates for potatoes - 2nd crop (9.4% or 114,470 t), beans - 3rd crop (6.0% or 44,237 t), tomatoes (5.3% or 197,535 t), corn - 2nd crop (4.2% or 4,179,530 t), barley (4.1% or 21,460 t), sorghum (3.2% or 128,089 t), sugarcane (3.1% or 20,877,452 t), upland cottonseed (2.1% or 155,909 t), coffea canephora (1.5% or 14,888 t), coffea arabica (1.4% or 32,676 t), cassava (1.3% or 232,920 t) and soybeans (0.6% or 888,282 t) increased, whereas the product estimates for orange (-7.9% or -1,324,616 t), wheat (-3.2% or -347,127 t), beans - 2nd crop (-1.9% or 22,852 t), beans - 1st crop (-1.1% or -10,990 t), potatoes - 1st crop (-1.1% or 18,985 t), corn - 1st crop (-0.7% or -199,977 t) and oat (-0.6% or -7,226 t) declined.

The major positive changes in the output estimates, in relation to the previous month, were in Mato Grosso (3,811,370 t), Goiás (1,167,840 t), São Paulo (92,760 t), Tocantins (51,038 t), Rio Grande do Sul (49,026 t), Sergipe (17,679 t), Alagoas (5,058 t), Santa Catarina (4,024 t), Espírito Santo (1,739 t) and Amazonas (1,168 t). The negative changes occurred in Paraná (-290,100 t), Ceará (-62,786 t), Rondônia (-16,086 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-1,495 t), Minas Gerais (-235 t), Pará (-105 t), Maranhão (-4 t) and Rio de Janeiro (-1 t).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production estimate was 7.6 million tonnes, one more record for the Brazilian agriculture, with an increase of 2.1% in relation to the last estimate released and of 12.3% against the previous year. 

POTATOES - The production of potatoes in the three crops of the product should reach 4.1 million tonnes, an increase of 2.4% against the previous month. Having increased its production estimate by 9.8%, São Paulo stood out and should reach an output of 867.4 thousand tonnes. The Brazilian output of potatoes should grow 1.4% in relation to 2022.

The first crop (summer) should contribute with 43.7% of the total amount of potatoes to be produced in the year. The output estimate was 1.8 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.1% over the previous month and a growth of 5.3% against the same harvest in 2022. The second crop (fall), which represented 32.7% of the total production, was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, 9.4% above the August 2023 estimate. The area to be harvested grew 8.8%, whereas the average yield grew 0.6%. For the third crop (winter), the estimate was 960.4 thousand tonnes, remaining unchanged in relation to the August´s forecast.

COFFEE BEAN - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee for 2023 reached 3.4 million tonnes, or 55.9 million 60-kg sacks, a rise of 6.9% against 2022. The average yield of 1 759 kg/ha, in turn, increased 1.7% in the monthly comparison and 4.0% in the annual one.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was 2.3 million tonnes or 38.9 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 1.4% in relation to August and of 14.6% in relation to the previous year. Although the harvest of coffea arabica is of negative biennial bearings in 2023, the production estimate grew when compared with 2022, since the weather benefited the crops, reversing such biennial bearings.

As for coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was of
1.0 million tonnes or 17.1 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 1.5% in relation this month and a decline of 7.3% in relation to 2022, due to a lower average yield.  In the monthly comparison, the harvested area and the average yield rose 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

SUGARCANE - The estimated output of sugarcane was of 700.4 million tonnes, an increase of 3.1% over the previous month and of 11.9% against 2022. The average yield of the sugarcane crops increased 4.2% in September, hitting 77,825 kg/ha in the national average. The harvested area reduced 1.0%, though it was still 2.2% larger than in 2022, surpassing 9.0 million hectares cropped. The growth of this harvest was due to the good volume of rainfall, mainly between January and February 2023. Moreover, frosts and water deficit did not occur during the development of the crop.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. Concerning wheat (in grain), the production should reach 10.5 million tonnes, a decline of 3.2% over August and a rise of 4.8% against 2022. Should this number be confirmed, Brazil should renew the production record of this cereal. The area to be planted increased 8.4% in relation to the previous year.

The output of oat (in grain) was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.6% over August and a growth of 2.8% against 2022.

For barley (in grain), the estimated production was of 549.9 thousand tonnes, a growth of 4.1% over August and an increase of 9.2% in relation to what was produced in 2022.

BEAN SEED - The estimated output of beans for 2023, considering the three crops, was of 3.0 million tonnes, 0.3% higher than the August´s forecast. As for the annual change, the output estimate dropped 2.7%, as well as the area to be harvested, which decreased 4.5%.

The estimate of the first crop of beans was of 1.0 million tonnes, a retreat of 1.1% over August, resulting from the declines of 0.1% in the harvested area and of 0.9% in the average yield. The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, a drop of 1.9% over August, with a reduction of 2.1% in the area to be harvested and a rise of 0.2% in the average yield. For the third crop of beans, the output estimate was of 778.3 thousand tonnes, a rise of 6.0% over August. The area to be harvested and the average yield grew 4.8% and 1.2%, respectively.

ORANGES - The estimate for the production of oranges was of 15.5 million tonnes, a reduction of 7.9% over that released in August. The average yield was estimated at 26,916 kg/ha, an increase of 4.1%, whereas the area to be harvested reduced 11.5%.

CASSAVA (roots) - The Brazilian production should reach 18.7 million tonnes, an increase of 1.3% against the previous month and of 2.6% against 2022.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate for corn increased 3.1% in relation to the previous month, adding up to 131.8 million tonnes, a volume 19.6% higher than in 2022. The rise of nearly 4.0 million tonnes over August was due to the advances in the planted and harvested areas by 0.7%, as well as in the average yield (2.4%).

Corn - 1st crop decreased its output by 200.0 thousand tonnes in September over August, a decline of 0.7% due to the reductions of 0.5% in the harvested area and of 0.2% in the average yield. The output added up to 28.0 million tonnes.

The estimate for corn - 2nd crop was of 103.8 million tonnes, a growth of 4.2% compared with August 2023. The harvested area rose 1.1% and the average yield, 3.1%. The production increased 22.4%, the area to be harvested, 6.9%, and the average yield, 14.5% in relation to the same period of 2022.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The national output of soybeans must reach 147.2 million tonnes, an increase of 23.4% against 2022, and may represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced produced in Brazil in 2023.

SORGHUM (grain) – The output estimate for sorghum  in April 2023 hit 3.5 million tonnes, increases of 14.6% from March, and of 23.0% from 2022.

TOMATOES - The output should reach 3.9 million tonnes in the 2023 harvest, with rises of 5.3% over the previous month and of 1.6% against 2022.