In August 2023, industry prices changed 0.92% compared to July, returning to a positive rate after six months. In this comparison, 12 of the 24 industrial activities had positive price changes. The cumulative result for the year was -6.32%, the most intense negative change for a month of August since the beginning of the time series, in 2014. The cumulative result for 12 months was -10.51%.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) for Mining and Quarrying Industries and Manufacturing Industries measures the "factory-gate" prices of products, without taxes and freight, and covers the major economic categories.

The four biggest changes in the monthly indicator were: petroleum refining and biofuels (7.52%); mining and quarrying industries (6.56%); wearing apparel (5.89%); and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-2.79%).

Petroleum refining and biofuels were the most prominent industrial sector in the aggregate result, when comparing August and July prices. The activity was responsible for 0.72 percentage points (pp) of influence on the 0.92% change in the general industry. In this regard, other activities that also stood out were mining and quarrying industries, with 0.30 pp of influence, basic metals (-0.17 pp) and apparel (0.10 pp).

The cumulative result for the year was -6.32%. By way of comparison, in the last year (2022) the cumulative rate until the month of August had been 7.99%. The cumulative result until August 2023 was the sharpest negative result for a month of August since the beginning of the time series, in 2014.

The biggest cumulative changes in the year among activities were: petroleum refining and biofuels (-19.98%), other chemical products (-17.35%), paper and pulp (-16.89%) and wearing apparel (15.47%).

The main influences came from petroleum refining and biofuels: -2.39 pp, other chemical products: -1.52 pp, food: -1.43 pp and paper and pulp: -0.57 pp.

The cumulative result in 12 months was -10.51% in August. In the previous month, this same indicator had registered a rate of -14.02%. The sectors with the four biggest price changes when comparing August with the same month of the previous year were: other chemical products (-30.75%); petroleum refining and biofuels (-29.75%); wearing apparel (17.65%); and basic metals (-14.09%).

The sectors with the greatest influence on the aggregate result were: petroleum refining and biofuels (-3.88 pp); other chemical products (-3.07 pp); food (-1.80 pp); and basic metals (-0.89 pp).

Among the major economic categories, the August result had the following impact: 0.04% change in capital goods; 1.54% in intermediate goods; and 0.18% in consumer goods, with the change observed in durable consumer goods being 0.16%, while in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods had 0.18%.

The main influence came from intermediate goods, whose weight in the composition of the general index was 55.48% and accounted for 0.85 pp of the 0.92% change in mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries.

The list is completed by consumer goods, with an influence of 0.07 pp and capital goods with 0.00 pp. In the case of consumer goods, the influence observed in August is divided into 0.01 pp, which was due to the change in the prices of durable consumer goods, and 0.06 pp associated with the change in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

In the cumulative rate of the year, the change in the major economic categories reached: -1.75%, in the case of capital goods; -9.44% in intermediate goods; and -2.21% in consumer goods - with durable consumer goods accumulating a change of 1.76%, while semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, of -2.99%.

In terms of influence on the year to date, capital goods accounted for -0.13 pp of the -6.32% recorded in the general industry until August this year. Intermediate goods, in turn, accounted for -5.42 pp, while consumer goods exerted an influence of -0.78 pp on the aggregate result of the industry, an influence that is divided into 0.10 pp due to price changes of consumer goods. consumer durables and -0.88 pp caused by changes in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

In the 12-month period, the price change of capital goods was 1.11% in August/2023. The prices of intermediate goods, in turn, changed -15.55% in this one-year period and the change in consumer goods was -4.21%, with durable consumer goods showing a price variation of 2.41%. % and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods of -5.48%.

With a weight of 7.82% in the calculation of the general index, capital goods were responsible for 0.08 pp of the -10.51% cumulative change in 12 months in the industry, in this reference month. In the result for August 2023, there was also an influence of -1.45 pp from consumer goods and -9.14 pp from intermediate goods.

The result of consumer goods, in particular, was influenced by 0.13 pp by durable consumer goods and by -1.58 pp by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, the latter with a weight of 82.90% in the calculation of the index of that large category.

Mining and quarrying industries – For the second consecutive month and the sixth time in the year, the price change in the month-on-month comparison was positive, in August at 6.56%. As a result, the cumulative figure for the year reversed the previous trend and stands at 5.02%. In turn, the cumulative result in 12 months was -10.99%, 17.33 pp higher than that observed in July.

The sector's highlight is due to the fact that it was the second most intense change in the monthly indicator and the second influence (0.30 pp, in 0.92%). The sector's prices varied in line with the behavior of commodities on the foreign market, and also suffered the effect of the appreciation of the dollar against the real (2.1%, from July to August).

Food – After three consecutive months, in August, the sector's price change, in the monthly comparison, returned to a positive level, 0.08%. As a result, the cumulative result for the year was -5.91% and the cumulative result for 12 months, -7.63%.

Food is the activity with the greatest weight in the IPP, 24.27%, and the behavior of its prices generated the third largest influence both in the year (-1.43 pp, in -6.32%), and in the cumulative rate in 12 months (-1.80 pp, in -10.51%).

Two products (“frozen beef” and “concentrated orange juice”) stand out both in terms of change and influence, with opposite directions of price behavior: “frozen beef” fell , while “concentrated orange juices” rose.

The appreciation of the dollar against the real had an effect on “orange juice”, but the prices of the commodity also had a positive change in the foreign market (impacted by a lower supply from Brazil). In the case of beef, with an excess supply of animals for slaughter, prices continue to fall.

Wearing apparel - The activity presented a result in the monthly indicator of 5.89%, the third among the four highest monthly results. Changes in production costs (especially raw materials) were most frequently accounted for as responsible for this result. Thus, the activity's cumulative result for the year was 15.47%, the fourth highest cumulative result in the year and the only one with a positive change among the four largest in the survey.

In relation to the last 12 months, the activity presented a result of 17.65%, being the third highest, and the only one with a positive value, among the four biggest indicators in the survey.

Paper and pulp – The result of the activity cumulative result in the year was -16.89%, this being the third highest, in terms of module, among the four highest cumulative results in the industry in the year. The cumulative result in the year of activity reflects the succession of negative results in the monthly index, which occurred between December 2022 and June 2023, with the highest value, in module, occurring in the month of June 2023, when it reached a result of -4.17%. The monthly result was -1.06%, and in relation to the last 12 months, -13.26%.

The results in the sector's short and longer term indicators reinforce the alignment to the dynamics of international pulp prices, which after undergoing a strong inventory rebuilding in 2022, was on a downward trend in the first half of 2023. July brought with it some recovery in demand for the product, but August ended with new specific price moderation. The domestic price followed the trend of global markets, despite the effect of current exchange rate depreciation on the price of exportable goods in reais.

Petroleum refining and biofuels – After eight negative results in the monthly comparison, in August the sector's prices increased by 7.52%. As a result, the cumulative result for the year, which was -25.58% in July, remained at -19.98%. The cumulative result in 12 months, in turn, was -29.75%, a difference of 9.49 pp in relation to July.

The highlight given to the sector is due to the fact that it is the top change in both the monthly indicator and the year-to-date indicator, the first being positive and the second negative. The change in the outlook for the last 12 months is also negative, and in this case, it is the second most intense. In terms of influence, it is the first in the three indicators (monthly: 0.72 pp, at 0.92%; cumulative rate in the year: -2.39 pp, at -6.32%; and cumulative rate in 12 months: -3. 88 pp, at -10.51%). In terms of current weight, it is the second largest, 10.24%.

Other chemicals – After 13 months, the average prices of the chemical industry showed an increase in comparison with the immediately previous month, a change of 1.02% – the result consolidates and reinforces market dynamics that were already being observed in July, particularly in the market of fertilizers.

Domestic demand for these products remained strong and the upward movement that had been occasional for some products in July spread into August, with emphasis on finished items.

In the external scenario, the international price of macronutrients remained in the second month of increase, exerting its effect as a competitive reference for the national producer of intermediate items and, at least, signaling upward pressure to rebuild input stocks for producers of finished items.

The cumulative result for the year slowed from -18.18% in July to -17.35% in August, while the cumulative result in 12 months went from -32.70% in the previous month to -30.75% in this reference month. In both indicators, the chemical industry was among the four most intense changes among the mining nd quarrying and manufacturing industries, as it was the case in terms of influence exerted on the calculation of the general index. The sector was also the fourth largest weight in this calculation.

Basic metals – In August, the activity's price change was -2.67% in relation to the previous month, the fourth consecutive negative result observed in this indicator and the biggest drop since September 2022 (-3.77%). It was the third main influence on the industry's overall result (-0.17 pp in 0.92%), being the only negative one among those that stood out.

In 2023, prices for the activity accumulate, on average, a drop of 7.45%. And in the last 12 months, the sector accumulated a reduction of 14.09% in the period, making the activity also highlighted in the indicator for the last 12 months, presenting the fourth most intense change, as well as the fourth main influence (-0 .89 pp in -10.51%), among the 24 activities surveyed in the IPP.

The sector has been influenced, mainly, by the economic groups of non-ferrous metals (whose changes are usually linked to international stock exchange prices and have been impacted, mainly, by lower aluminum prices and the cumulative appreciation of the real against the dollar) and the steel industry, which is mainly affected by the rebuilding of stocks in the consumer chain and the prices of iron ores (here it is worth highlighting that the low demand for steel products more than offset the increase observed in iron ores in recent months).

Keywords: Índice de Preços ao Produtor (IPP) é de 0, 92% em agosto