In July 2023, industrial production fell 0.6% compared to June, in the seasonally adjusted series, with negative rates in fourteen of the 15 areas surveyed. The most intense falls were in Amazonas (-8.8%), Bahia (-6.0%) and Pará (-4.4%), although the negative rates in Espírito Santo (-2.1%), Northeast Region (-2.0%), Santa Catarina (-1.5%), Paraná (-1.4%), Mato Grosso (-1.3%), Minas Gerais (-0.9%) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.8%) were also sharper than the national average (-0.6%). The only increase was in Ceará (1.2%).

Compared to July 2022, the 1.1% reduction in July 2023 was seen in eleven of the 18 areas surveyed. Amazonas (-11.1%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-11.1%) recorded the most intense declines while Rio Grande do Norte (50.7%) and Espírito Santo (31.7%) recorded the sharpest advances in this indicator.

Fourteen of the 15 places surveyed presented negative rates in July, in the seasonally adjusted series, following the decline in national industry (-0.6%). This month, Amazonas (-8.8%), Bahia (-6.0%) and Pará (-4.4%) recorded the sharpest declines, with the first place intensifying the 5.1% drop observed last June; the second eliminating the 0.7% increase recorded in the previous month; and the third accumulating a loss of 5.7% in two consecutive months of reduction in production.

Espírito Santo (-2.1%), Northeast Region (-2.0%), Santa Catarina (-1.5%), Paraná (-1.4%), Mato Grosso (-1.3%), Minas Gerais (-0.9%) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.8%) showed more intense declines than the national average (-0.6%), while São Paulo (-0.5%), Goiás (- 0.4%), Pernambuco (-0.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-0.1%) completed the set of places with negative indices in July 2023. On the other hand, Ceará (1.2%) marked the only increase in production this month, thus eliminating part of the 6.0% drop seen in June.

The quarterly moving average index for the entire industry showed a negative change of 0.1% in the quarter ending in July 2023 compared to the level of the previous month, after also recording -0.1%, when it interrupted the sequence of positive results reported in May (0.3%), April (0.1%) and March (0.2%). Ten of the fifteen places surveyed recorded negative rates this month, with a highlight to the sharpest declines recorded by Bahia (-2.6%), Northeast Region (-1.5%), Pará (-1.3%), Ceará ( -1.2%) and Amazonas (-0.9%). On the other hand, Mato Grosso (1.7%), Pernambuco (1.5%), Espírito Santo (1.4%) and Goiás (0.8%) showed the main advances in July 2023.

In comparison with July 2022, the industrial sector fell 1.1% in July 2023, with eleven of the eighteen places surveyed showing negative results. It is worth mentioning that July 2023 (21 days) had the same number of working days as the same month in the previous year (21).

Amazonas (-11.1%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-11.1%) recorded double-digit declines and the most intense ones, pressured by the negative behavior observed in the sectors of IT equipment, electronic and optical products and beverages, in the first place; and pulp, paper and paper products and coke, petroleum products and biofuels, in the second. Maranhão (-6.8%), Ceará (-5.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-4.9%), Paraná (-3.2%), Santa Catarina (-3.1%), São Paulo (-3.0%), Bahia (-3.0%), Pará (-2.9%) and the Northeast Region (-2.5%) completed the group of places with a drop in production in the monthly index.

On the other hand, Rio Grande do Norte (50.7%) and Espírito Santo (31.7%) registered double-digit advances and the sharpest ones this month, driven, to a large extent, by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel, fuel oils and aviation kerosene), in the first place; and mining and quarrying industries (crude petroleum oils, pelletized or sintered iron ores and natural gas), in the second. Pernambuco (8.9%), Mato Grosso (5.4%), Goiás (5.0%), Rio de Janeiro (3.9%) and Minas Gerais (0.8%) showed the other positive results this month.

In the cumulative result of the year, compared to the same period in the previous year, the reduction in national production (-0.4%) reached nine of the eighteen places surveyed, with a highlight to Ceará (-6.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (- 5.9%). Northeast Region (-4.2%), Maranhão (-4.0%), Santa Catarina (-3.6%), Bahia (-3.5%), São Paulo (-2.1%), Paraná ( -1.2%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-1.2%) completed the group of places with a drop in production in the cumulative index in the year.

On the other hand, Rio Grande do Norte (9.8%), Amazonas (6.5%) and Minas Gerais (5.0%) recorded the sharpest advances while Rio de Janeiro (4.3%), Espírito Santo ( 4.2%), Pará (4.0%), Mato Grosso (1.9%), Goiás (1.1%) and Pernambuco (0.3%) showed the other positive results this month.

The cumulative result over the last 12 months showed no change (0.0%) in July 2023, thus repeating the results seen in the months of June and May. Nine of the fifteen places surveyed recorded negative rates in July and eight showed less dynamism compared to the previous month's rates. Amazonas (from 8.3% to 5.7%), Mato Grosso (from 7.8% to 5.9%), Pará (from -1.8% to -2.5%), Rio Grande do Sul ( from -2.5% to -3.1%) and São Paulo (from 0.5% to 0.1%) recorded the biggest losses between June and July 2023, while Espírito Santo (from -8.3% to –4.2%), Goiás (from -0.6% to 0.6%) and Pernambuco (from -5.3% to -5.0%) showed the main gains between the two periods.

Keywords: Em julho, indústria recua em quatorze dos 15 locais pesquisados