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In August, IBGE’s estimate for 2023 crops is 313.3 million tonnes

September 06, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 11, 2023 01h31 PM

The estimated output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2023 is 313.3 million tonnes, 19.0% (or 50.1 million more tonnes) above the amount in 2022 (263.2 million tonnes) and 1.4% above the amount estimated in July. The area to be harvested is 77.5 million hectares, with a high of 5.8% in the year and of 0.6% over July.

Estimates of August for 2023 313.3 million tonnes
August 2023/ July 2023 Change (1.4%) 4.4 million tonnes
 2023 Crop/ 2022 Crop Change (19.0%) 50.1 million tonnes

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 92.0% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.0% of the area to be harvested. Compared with 2022, soybeans rose 25.8%, upland cottonseed, 10.0%, sorghum, 38.8%, corn, 16.0%, with increases of 10.9% for corn - 1st crop and of 17.5% for corn - 2nd crop, and of 8.2% for wheat. The output for paddy rice retreated 5.5%. As for the area to be harvested, there were increases of 4.4% in the area for corn (0.2% relative to the 1st crop and 5.8% relative to the 2nd crop), of 5.4% in the area for cotton, of 22.5% in the area for sorghum, of 8.5% in that for wheat and of 7.2% in the area for soybean, with drops of 7.0% and 4.1% in the areas for rice and beans, respectively.

The estimated production of soybeans in August was 150.3 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 127.2 million tonnes (28.2 million tonnes of corn in the first crop and 99.6 million tonnes in the second crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.1 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 10.9 million tonnes, that of upland cottonseed, at 7.4 million tonnes and that of sorghum, at 4.0 million tonnes.

The output estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded a positive annual change in all five Major Regions: South (26.6%), Central-West (19.4%), Southeast (8.9%), North (21.2%) and Northeast (7.7%).  As for the monthly change, the North Region (4.1%), the Northeast Region (0.3%), the Central-West (1.6%) and the Southeast Region (3.9%) recorded increases. The South Region was stable (0.0%).

Highlights in the August 2023 estimate in relation to the previous month

In relation to July, there were increases in the estimates for the production of beans 3rd crop (10.7% or 71,115 t), wheat (1.1% or 117,967 t), sorghum (3.3% or 124,635 t ), corn 2nd crop (2.5% or 2,467,902 t), sugarcane (1.7% or 11,050,281 t), soybean (1.1% or 1,563,860 t) and for corn 1st crop (0.3% or 92,849 t), and declines for beans 1st crop (-3.9% or -41,220 t), cocoa (-2.6% or -7,487 t) and of beans 2nd harvest (-2.3% or -28,946 t).

Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains with a share of 30.6%, followed by Paraná (14.8%), Goiás (10.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.9%) and Minas Gerais (6.2%). These states together accounted for 80.0% of the national estimate.

Among the Major Regions the distribution is as follows: Central-West (49.8%), South (26.6%), Southeast (9.7%), Northeast (8.7%) and North (5.2%).

CACAO NUTS - The estimated production stayed at 282.9 thousand tonnes, a decline of 2.6% over the previous month, with the area to be harvested reduced by 3.5%. In relation to 2022, the expected production should be reduced by 2.5%, with the are to be harvested 3.2% smaller.

SUGARCANE The estimate of the national output of sugarcane was of 679.5 million tonnes, increases of 1.7% in relation to the previous month and 8.6% in comparison 2022. The average yield of the sugarcane crops grew 5.2%, reaching 74,718 kg/ha in the national average, as well as the harvested area, which increased 3.3% in the annual comparison, hitting 9.1 million hectares. The crop growth is due to the good volume of rainfalls, especially in January and February 2023. Besides, there was no frost or water deficits in the phase of crop development, which influenced crop results in the last three months.

BEAN SEED – The estimated output for 2023, considering the three crops, was of 3.0 million tonnes, holding stable in relation to July.  In relation to the annual change, the output estimate declined 3.1%, with the harvested area reduced by 4.1%, whereas the average yield grew 1.2%.  The Brazilian production of beans in the current year, despite being small, should supply the domestic demand, which has stagnated in the last years. 

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.0 million tonnes, a retreat of 3.9% over July estimate, with decreases of 1.4% in the area to be harvested and of 2.6% in the average yield.

The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, a retreat of 2.3% over July estimate, with falls of 1.6% in the average yield and of 0.7% in the area to be harvested. The second crop represents 41.4% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil in 2023.

As for the 3rd crop, the estimated production is 734.0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 10.7% against the estimate of July, with increase in the area to be harvested of 6.7% and average yield recording a increase of 3.7%.

CORN (grain) - The output estimate was 127.8 million tonnes, having increased 2.0% in relation to July 2023 and of 16.0% compared to the previous year (2022) and series’ record. The growth of 2.6 million tonnes, over the previous year, was due to advances of 0.6% in the planted and harvested area and of 1.5% in the yield.

Corn 1st crop presented a production of 28.2 million tonnes, a growth of 0.3% in relation to the previous month and of 10.9%, when compared to the same period of 2022. In 2023, the weather was good for crops, compared to the previous year, and this leveraged the average yield to 10.7%.

The production estimate for corn 2nd crop grew 2.5% in August - a rise of 2.5 million tonnes.  In the year, the growth was 17.5%, an increase of 14.8 million metric tonnes, totaling 99.6 million tonnes.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The national output of soybeans hit the record of 150.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.1% against July and a high of 25.8% against 2022, and may represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced produced in Brazil in 2023. Recovery of crop productivity in most of the country, against the average reached in 2022, is the main factor accounting for the increase in output.

The harvested area (43.8 million hectares) increased 7.2% in the year. The national output should reach 3,431 kg/ha, even with the losses in the corps in Rio Grande do Sul, growing 17.4% in the year, this being the main factor behind the country’s excellent crop.

SORGHUM (grain) - The production estimate for sorghum was of 4.0 million tonnes, increases of 3.3 in relation to the report released in July and of 38.8% in relation to that of 2022, being the series’ record. The production increase has been followed by the expansion of the planted areas and by the gains in the average yield of the North, Southeast and Central-West Regions. In relation to the previous year, the area grew 21.8%. As to the average yield, estimated at 3,134 kg/ha, there was increase of 13.3% in the year and of 3.2% in the month.

WHEAT (grain) - The output of wheat, which should reach 10.9 million tonnes, an increase of 1.1% in relation to July and of 8.2% in relation to 2022, when Brazil harvested the biggest crop in history. Should this number be confirmed, Brazil will renew the production record of this cereal in 2023. The area to be planted grew 2.3% over the previous month, with the average yield decreasing 1.1% to 3,189 kg/ha. In the annual comparison, the planted area grew 8.5%, whereas the average yield increased 0.3%.