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In July, IBGE expects harvest of 308.9 million tonnes for 2023

August 10, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: August 15, 2023 11h26 AM

In July, the estimated output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2023 was 308.9 million tonnes, 17.4% (or more 45.7 million tonnes) above the amount in 2022 (263.2 million tonnes) and 0.5% above the amount estimated in June. The area to be harvested amounted to 77.1 million hectares, 5.2% more than in 2022 and 0.2% above the area estimated in June.

July estimates for 2023 308.9 million tonnes
July 2023 / June 2023 change (0.5%) 1.6 million tonnes
Change harvest 2023/ harvest 2022 (17.4%) 45.7 million tonnes

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 92.0% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. Compared with 2022, soybeans rose 24.5%, upland cottonseed, 10.2%sorghum, 34.4%, corn, 13.7%, with increases of 10.5% for corn - 1st crop and of 14.6% for corn - 2nd crop, and wheat, 7.1%, whereas paddy rice decreased 5.8%.

As for the area to be harvested, there were increases of 3.8% in the area for corn (0.5% relative to the 1st crop and 4.9% relative to the 2nd crop), of 5.6% in the area for upland cottonseed, of 22.4% in the area for sorghum, of 6.1% in that for wheat and of 6.6% in the area for soybeans, with drops of 6.5% and 3.7% in the areas for rice and beans, respectively.

The estimated production for July of soybeans was 148.8 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 125.2 million tonnes (28.1 million tonnes of corn in the first crop and 97.1 million tonnes in the second crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.0 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 10.8 million tonnes, that of upland cottonseed, at 7.4 million tonnes and that of sorghum, at 3.8 million tonnes.

The output estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded a positive annual change in five Major Regions: South (26.6%), Central-West (17.4%), Southeast (4.8%), North (16.4%) and Northeast (7.4%).  As for the monthly change, the Northeast Region (3.9%), the Central -West (0.5%) and the Southeast Region (0.1%) recorded increases. The South (-0.2%) and North (-0.2%) regions declined.

Highlights in the July 2023 estimate in relation to the previous month

The output estimates of potatoes - 3rd crop (10.2% or 93 196 t), upland cottonseed (7.2% or 497 233 t), oat (3.9% or 47 211 t), cashew nuts (3.8% or 4 687 t), barley (2.2% or 11 356 t), potatoes - 2nd crop (1.6% or 19 003 t), grapes (1.4% or 22 762 t), wheat (1.2% or 126 232 t), beans - 3rd crop (0.9% or 5 700 t), corn - 2nd crop (0.8% or 767 542 t) and soybeans (0.3% or 388 233 t) increased in relation to June, whereas the output estimates of beans - 1st crop (-4.8% or -53 804 t), beans - 2nd crop (-4.4% or 58 555 t), potatoes - 1st crop (-2.2% or -40 239 t), tomatoes (-1.1% or -41 893 t) and corn - 1st crop (-0.1% or -14 249 t) declined.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led is the major national producer of grains, with a share of 31.0%, followed by Paraná (15.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.5%), Goiás (9.5%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.9%) and Minas Gerais (5.9%), which, together, accounted for 79.8% of the national output. As for the participation of the Brazilian Major Regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (49.7%), South (26.9%), Southeast (9.5%), Northeast (8.8%) and North (5.1%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production estimate was 7.4 million tonnes, one more record for the Brazilian agriculture, with an increase of 7.2% in relation to the last estimate released. Compared with the previous year, a growth of 10.2% was expected, due to the expansion of 5.6% in the cropped area and of 4.3% in the productivity. The larger area, due to good prices, and the favorable weather, mainly in the second crop, when most of the culture is cropped, leveraged the production.

POTATOES - Potatoes are cropped in three different times in Brazil: summer (first crop), fall (second crop) and winter (third crop), with crops demanding a fair weather, availability of water during the productive cycle and strict control of plagues and diseases. Considering the three crops of the product, the output of potatoes should reach 4.0 million tonnes, an increase of 1.8% in relation to the previous month. The Brazilian output of potatoes should grow 0.1% in relation to 2022.

Estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, the first crop should contribute with 44.8% of the output of potatoes in the year, declining 2.2% over the previous month and rising 6.4% in relation to the first crop of 2022, and having the average yield increased by 6.6%.

The second crop, which represented 30.3% of the total production, was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, 1.6% above the estimate of June 2023.  

For the third crop, the estimated production was 1.0 million tonnes, an increase of 10.2% in relation to the previous month and a decline of 6.2% in relation to the same crop in 2022.

CASHEW NUTS - The output estimate of cashew nuts was 126.7 thousand tonnes, a rise of 3.8% over the previous month and a drop of 13.9% in the year.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The output of wheat, which should reach 10.8 million tonnes, an increase of 1.2% in relation to June and of 7.1% in relation to 2022, when Brazil had harvested the biggest harvest in history. Should this number be confirmed, Brazil should renew the production record of this cereal in 2023.

The area to be planted grew 0.5% over the previous month, with the average yield increasing 0.7% to 3,226 kg/ha. In the annual comparison, the planted area grew 6.1%, whereas the average yield increased 0.8%. Should the fair weather conditions of 2022 remain, the increase in the planted area should assure a significant increase in the output of this cereal in 2023.

The estimate of the output of oat was 1.2 million tonnes, an increase of 3.9% over June and a growth of 3.3% in relation to 2022.

As for barley, the estimated output (522.6 thousand tonnes) increased 2.2% in relation to the previous month and 3.8% in relation to 2022.

BEANS (seed) - The estimated output of beans for 2023, considering the three crops, was 3.0 million tonnes, a decline of 3.5% in relation to June and of 3.1% in relation to 2022.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a retreat of 4.8% over the June’s estimate. The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, a decrease of 4.4% against the June´s estimate. The second crop represented 42.8% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil in 2023. For the 3rd crop of beans, the production estimate was of 662.9 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.9% over the June´s estimate.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate of grew 753.3 thousand tonnes, representing more 0.6% against the previous month, adding up to 125.2 million tonnes. This increase was explained by the growth of 0.8% in the productivity of corn (5,684 kg/ha). When compared with 2022, the increase in the output was 13.7%, due to the increase of 3.4% and 3.8% in the planted and harvested areas, respectively, and to the growth of 9.5% in the average yield.

Corn - 1st crop registered an output of 28.1 million tonnes, a retraction of 0.1%, which represented less 14,249 tonnes in relation to the previous month. Although the average yield increased 0.6% (5,295 kg/ha), the harvested area dropped 0.7% or less 35.5 thousand hectares.

For the second crop, the estimated production was 97.1 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.8% in relation to the previous month or more 767,542 tonnes.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The national output of soybeans should reach 148.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% in relation to June and a growth of 24.5% over the amount produced in 2022, and it should represent nearly half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in 2023. Recovery of crop productivity in most of the country, against the average reached in 2022, is the main factor accounting for the increase in output.

TOMATOES - The output was estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, a decline of 1.1% in relation to June. Still in this comparison, all the Major Regions reduced their output, except for the North, which remained stable: Northeast (-0.1%), Southeast (-2.2%), South (-0.5%) and Central-West (-0.0%).

GRAPES - The Brazilian production of grapes should reach 1.7 million tonnes, an increase of 1.4% against the previous month and an increase of 12.3% against 2022.