In May, the output tion of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to hit 299.7 million tonnes in 2023, 13.9% above the harvest in 2022 (263.2 million tonnes) and 0.5% above the amount estimated in February (298.0 million tonnes). The area to be harvested amounts to 76.1 million hectares, 3.9% more than in 2022 and 0.4% above the area estimated in February.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group. They represented 92.4% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.4% of the area to be harvested. Against 2022, there were increases of 23.2% for soybeans, 2.8% for upland cottonseed, 8.7% for corn, with increases of 9.7% for corn - 1st crop and of 8.4% for corn - 2nd crop. Estimates for rice and wheat dropped by 7.6% and 2.6%, respectively. As for the area to be harvested, there were increases of 3.3% in the area for corn (by 1.2% for corn - 1st crop and by 4.1% - for corn 2nd crop). The area for upland cotton, wheat and soybean increased by 1.8%, 2.5% and 5.4%, respectively. On the other hand, the area for rice crops dropped 6.5% and that for sorghum, 0.8%.

For soybeans, the March estimate hit 147.2 million tonnes and that for corn, 119.8 million tonnes (27.4 million tonnes of corn - 1st crop and 91.9 million tonnes of corn - 2nd crop). The rice output estimate reached 9.8 million tonnes, output estimates for wheat, cottonseed and sorghum amounted to 9.8 million tonnes; 6.9 million tonnes, and 3.1 million tonnes, respectively.

The output estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded a positive annual change in five Major Regions: South (28.4%), Central-West (11.6%), Southeast (1.0%), North (12.9%) and Northeast (2.5%). As for the monthly change, the Northeast Region (0.2%), the North (1.6%) and the Central-West (2.9%) recorded increases. The Southeast remained stable and the South recorded a decline (-3.2%).

Mato Grosso leads the national grain production with a share of 30.9%, followed by Paraná (15.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (10.2%), Goiás (9.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.2%) and Minas Gerais (5.9%). This group of states accounted for 80.2% of the overall amount.

Highlights in the March 2023 estimate against the previous month

Against February, the production estimates for wheat (13.0% or 1,121, 300 t), barley (11.7% or 54 500 t), coffea canephora (2.9% or 28,976 t), tomato (2.4% or 91,897 t), soybean (seed) (1.4% or 96,989 t), beans - 1st crop (0.3% or 3,455 t), oats (0.1% or 600 t), and drops in production estimates of corn - 1st crop (-2.8% ou -817 893 t), tobacco (-1.8% or -12,307 t), paddy rice (-1.8% or -177,449 t), beans - 2nd crop (-1.3% or -18,325), corn - 2nd crop (-0.9% or -828,642 t), grape (-0.7% or -11,840 t), coffea arabica (-0.3% or -5,915 t) and beans - 3rd crop (-0.1% or -505 t).

The regional distribution of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was: Central-West, 145.9 million tonnes (48.7%); South, 84.3 million tonnes (28.1%); Southeast, 28.1 million tonnes (9.4%); Northeast, 26.0 million tonnes (8.7%) and North, 15.3 million tonnes (5.1%).

The main increases in production, against the previous month, were observed in Mato Grosso (4,118 190 t), Paraná (1,834,444 t), Rondônia (237,510 t), Maranhão (34,501 t), Ceará (9,953 t), Espírito Santo (3,566 t) e Amapá (1,180 t). Rio Grande do Sul recorded the main decrease (-4,616,815 t).

UPLAND COTTONSEED  – The production estimate is 6.9 million tonnes, representing an increase of 1.4% in relation to the latest estimate. In relation to 2022, the output was expected to grow by 2.3%, due to the expansion in the cropped area by 1.8% and of productivity by 1.0%.

PADDY RICE  – The output estimate in 2023 was 9.8 million tonnes, after a new monthly adjustment of 1.8%, resulting in a decrease of 7.6% against 2022 or 812.0 thousand tonnes.

COFFEE BEAN  – Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee amounted to 3.3 million tonnes, or 55.7 million 60-kg sacks, with an increase of 0.7% against the previous month and of 6.5% against 2022.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate hit 2.3 million tonnes or 38.5 million 60-kg sacks, a drop of 0.3% in relation to February and an increase of 13.4% against the previous year. For 2023, the biennial nature of coffee production is expected to be negative, but, due to the lack of climate problems in the winter in 2022, increase in production must be observed.

As for coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was of 1.0 million metric tons or 17.2 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 2.9% in relation to the previous month and of 6.3% in relation to 2021.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The output of wheat must reach 9.8 million tonnes, an increase of 13.% from February, and a decrease of 2.6% from 2022, when Brazil had the biggest harvest in the time series, as a high comparison basis. The area to be planted increased by 5.5% from the previous month.

The output estimate for oat was 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 0.1% against the previous month and a drop of 7.9% against 2022.

As for barley, the estimated output (521.6 thousand tonnes) increased by 11.7% in relation to the previous month and by 3.6% in relation to 2022.

BEAN SEED  – The third output estimate for the overall production of beans in 2023 was 3.1 million tonnes, 0.5% below the February estimate of 15,375 tonnes. The estimated output of beans for 2023 is expected to be enough for a year of domestic consumption.

The 1st crop was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes with an increase of 0.3% against the February figure, due to the increase of 0.4% in average yield. The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.3% against the February estimate. There was a drop by 0.4% in average yield and of 1.0% in the area to be planted. The second crop represented 43.5% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.

The 3rd crop of beans, which represents 20.9% of the total, was estimated at 642.8 thousand, with a decrease of 0.1% from February. Among the nine states reporting data for the 3rd crop of beans, only Espírito Santo and Paraná updated their results, with an expected drop of 55.6% in production estimate of the latter from February.

TOBACCO (leaf) – The output estimate for tobacco, for March 2023, is 681.0 thousand tonnes, a drop of 1.8% from February, due to the higher average yield (-1.8%). Against 2022, there were increases of 2.3% in output, 0.7% in average yield and 1.6% in harvested area.

CORN GRAIN – The estimate for corn production recorded a drop of 1.4% from February, which amounted to 119.8 million tonnes. Against 2022, there was an increase of 8.7%. If this output is confirmed there will be a new record, after that in 2022. The drop in the monthly decrease can be a result of the severe drought in the South Region, mainly in Rio Grande do Sul, with decreases of 18.1% in output amd 16.8% in average yield.

Corn 1st crop had an output of 27.9 million tonnes, which means a decrease of 2.8% against the previous month. In 2023, except for Rio Grande do Sul, climate benefited the summer corn harvest.

The estimated output of corn 2nd crop fell by 0.9%, and amounted to 91.9 million tonnes from the previous month.

SOYBEAN (em grão) – The national output of soybeans must reach 147.2 million tonnes, an increase of 23.4% against 2022, and may represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced produced in Brazil in 2023. Except for Rio Grande do Sul, which has faced severe droght once more, crops in the other Federation Units are in good output conditions. If figures are confirmed, there will be a new record output of that legume in Brazil, surpassing the production in 2021.

Against the previous month, there was an increment of 1.5% in the amount produced, mainly due to the review of data in Mato Grosso and Paraná, which reported an increase in the amount produced by 10.5% and 6.1%, respectively, in March.

TOMATO  –The amount produced was estimated at 3.9 million tonnes in March. Against the previous month, there was an increase of 2.4%, due to the expansion of planted area (2.8%), since average yield fell by 0.4%.

There was a review of statistics in Paraná, which accounts for 6.1% of the national output, with increases of 62.2% in planted area, 2.6% in average yield and 66.5% in output, amounting to 240.0 thousand tonnes more than in February.

UVA – The Brazilian production of grape must reach 1.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.7% against the previous month and an increase of 10.5% against 2022.