In February, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2023 should total 298.0 million metric tons, 13.3% higher (or more 34.9 million metric tons) than that of 2022 and 1.3% below the information January, with a drop of 3.9 million metric tons. The area to be harvested is 75.8 million hectares, 3.5% greater than in 2022 and stable (0.0%) compared to January results.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three major products in this group, together represent 92.8% of the estimated production and 87.6% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2022, there were increases of 21.3% in soybean production, 1.4% for herbaceous cotton, 10.2% for corn, with increases of 12.9% for corn 1st crop and 9.4% in corn 2nd crop. There were decreases of 6.0% for paddy rice and 13.8% for wheat. As for the area to be harvested, there were increases of 4.1% in corn (up 1.3% in corn 1st crop and 5.0% in corn 2nd crop). There was also an increase of 1.2% in the area of upland cotton and 4.8% in that of soybeans. On the other hand, there was a decrease of 5.8% in the area of rice and of 2.8% in that of wheat.

The February estimate for soybeans was 145.0 million metric tons and corn was 121.4 million metric tons (28.7 million metric tons of corn 1st crop and 92.7 million metric tons of corn 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.0 million metric tons; wheat at 8.7 million metric tons and cotton at 6.8 million metric tons.

The estimate of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed positive annual change for five major Regions: Central-West (8.5%), North (11.1%), Southeast (1.0%), Northeast (2.3 %) and South (32.6%). Compared to January estimates, there was an increase in the Northeast (0.5%), stability in the North and Southeast and declines in the South (-4.3%) and Central-West (-0.1%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 29.7%, followed by Paraná (15.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.8%), Goiás (9.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.3%) and Minas Gerais (5.9%), which together represented 80.1% of the total.

Highlights in the February 2023 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to January, there was an increase in the estimates for the production of potatoes 2nd crop (0.8% or 9 543 t) and cashew nuts (0.6% or 724 t), and declines in the estimates for oats (-3 .5% or -40,074 t), corn 1st crop (-2.5% or -733,342 t), rice (-2.5% or -252,744 t), soybeans (-1.7% or -2 524,827 t), 3rd crop potatoes (-1.4% or -12,400 t), 1st crop potatoes (-1.2% or -21,762 t), grapes (-0.6% or -9,964 t) , corn 2nd crop (-0.4% or -373,587 t), wheat (-0.2% or -20,962 t) and barley (-0.0% or -170 t).

Regionally, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was distributed as follows: Central-West, 141.8 million metric tons (47.6%); South, 87.1 million metric tons (29.2%); Southeast, 28.1 million metric tons (9.4%); Northeast, 26.0 million metric tons (8.7%) and North, 15.0 million metric tons (6.1%).

The main positive changes in production estimates, compared to January, occurred in Paraná (193,073 t), Piauí (115,548 t), Maranhão (2,929 t) and Ceará (161 t). The main negative changes were in Rio Grande do Sul (-4,125,897 t) and in Goiás (-110,315 t).

RICE (in husk) – The estimate for production was 10.0 million metric tons, a decline of 2.5% compared to the previous month and 6.0% compared to 2022. There was a downward revision of the area to be harvested, 1.4%, and of the average yield, 1.1%. Despite the losses, which in February reached 252,744 metric tons, this production should be enough to supply the Brazilian market.

POTATOES – Potato production, considering the three crops of the product, should reach 3.8 million metric tons, down 0.6% compared to the previous month and 5.4% compared to 2022. The 1st crop should contribute with 46.6% of the total potatoes to be produced in the year. The estimated production was 1.8 million metric tons, a decline of 1.2% compared to the previous month and an increase of 4.6% compared to the same crop in 2022.

The 2nd crop, which represents 31.2% of total production, was estimated at 1.2 million metric tons, 0.8% higher than the January 2023 estimate. The area to be harvested declined by 0.5%, while average yield estimate increased by 1.3%. Regarding the 3rd crop, the production estimate was 847.4 thousand metric tons, a decrease of 1.4% in relation to the previous month and of 21.1% in relation to the same crop of 2022.

CASHEW NUTS (almonds) – The estimated production of cashew nuts for February 2023 is 123.0 thousand metric tons, up 0.6% compared to the previous month, and down 16. 4% in the year. The decline may occur due to changes in the climate since, in 2022, there was good availability of rainfall in the main producing Federation Units. The area, in turn, remained practically stable in the month, up 0.4% compared to 2022.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. Wheat production should reach 8.7 million metric tons, a decrease of 13.8% compared to 2022, when Brazil harvested the biggest crop in history, a record in the IBGE series, therefore, a very high comparison basis. In relation to the previous month, the production estimate presents a decline of 0.2%.

The estimate of oat production was 1.1 million metric tons, down 3.5% compared to the previous month and 7.9% compared to 2022. Although the planted area and the area to be harvested show increases of 1.4%, the average yield fell by 9.2% to 2,153 kg/ha.

For barley, the estimated production was 467.1 thousand metric tons, a decrease of 7.2% compared to 2022. The largest producers are Paraná, with 337.6 thousand metric tons and Rio Grande do Sul, with 111.8 thousand metric tons , whose combined productions represent 96.2% of the national total.

CORN (in grain) – The estimate for corn production was 121.4 million metric tons, a decline of 0.9% compared to the previous month and growth of 10.2% compared to 2022. The drop in monthly production is a reflection of the severe drought in Rio Grande do Sul, which reduced its production estimate by 13.4% in the month, as a result of compromised average yield, which declined by 12.6%.

Despite the drop, the prospects for corn production in 2023 are quite optimistic, as the current summer crop was planted at the right time, which usually guarantees a good “planting window” for corn 2nd crop. In addition, as cereal prices are attractive, producers may increase investments in crops. If confirmed, we will have a new corn production record in the country.

For corn 1st crop, the production estimate was 28.7 million metirc tons, representing a decrease of 2.5% or 733.3 thousand metric tons less, compared to January 2023. There was a reduction of 2.4% in the average income, due to the losses in Rio Grande do Sul. In February, data from the Rio Grande do Sul crops began to show the effects of drought and high temperatures in the producing regions of the State.

There was a reduction of 13.4% in the estimated production. Despite the losses, Rio Grande do Sul is still the largest producer of corn 1st crop in the country, with a 17.6% share, with a harvest of 5.0 million metric tons. Thus, although the Rio Grande do Sul current summer crop faces difficulties due to severe rainfall restrictions, the drought seems to have been stronger in the 2022 summer crop.

The estimate for the production of corn 2nd crop was 92.7 million metric tons, a decrease of 0.4% compared to January 2023. Despite the areas planted and harvested remaining stable, there was a decline of 0.4% in the average yield. Paraná presented growth of 0.1% in the estimated production, which should reach 15.4 million metric tons, while Piauí and Goiás presented declines of 2.4% and 3.5%, respectively. The other Federation Units showed stability in production volumes.

SOYBEANS (in grain) – National soybean production should reach 145.0 million metric tons, an increase of 21.3% compared to the amount produced in the previous year, and should represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country, in 2023. Compared to the data released in the previous month, there was a decrease of 1.7% in the quantity produced, influenced mainly by the revision of productivity data in Rio Grande do Sul, which reported a drop of 14.0% in average income in February.

GRAPES – Brazilian grape production should reach 1.7 million metric tons, with a decline of 0.6% compared to January and an increase of 11.3% compared to 2022. The main producers are Rio Grande do Sul, with production of 892.5 thousand metric tons and growth of 21.4% compared to 2022; Pernambuco, with production of 404.1 thousand metric tons, an increase of 1.3% in the year and São Paulo, with production of 164.0 thousand metric tons and a decline of 0.3% compared to 2022.