In January, IBGE forecasts harvest of 302.0 million tonnes for 2023
February 08, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 13, 2023 11h25 AM
In January, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2023 should add up to 302.0 million tonnes, 14.7% higher than that obtained in 2022 (263.2 million tonnes), with a growth of 38.8 million tonnes and 1.9% above the December´s information, with an increase of 5.7 million tonnes. The area to be harvested amounted to 75.8 million hectares, 3.5% more than in 2022 and 0.7% more than that forecast in December.
|JANUARY´s estimate for 2023||302.0 million tonnes|
|JANUARY 2023 / DECEMBER 2022 change||(1.9%) 5.7 million tonnes|
|2023 harvest / 2022 harvest change||(14.7%) 38.8 million tonnes|
Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which, altogether, represented 92.9% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.5% of the area to be harvested. Compared with 2022, the area for corn increased 4.1% (rise of 1.4% in corn - 1st crop and of 4.9% in corn - 2nd crop). The area for upland cotton increased 1.2% and that for soybeans, 4.6%. On the other hand, the area for rice declined 4.4% and that for wheat, 2.8%. As for production, increases were 23.4% for soybeans, 1.3% for upland cottonseed, 11.2% for corn, with increases of 15.8% for corn - 1st crop and of 9.9% for corn - 2nd crop. Paddy rice decreased 3.6% and wheat, 13.6%.
For soybeans, the January´s estimate was of 147.5 million tonnes and for corn, 122.5 million tonnes (29.4 million tonnes of corn - 1st crop and 93.1 million tonnes of corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.3 million tonnes; that of wheat, at 8.7 million tonnes; and that of cotton, at 6.8 million tonnes.
The production estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded a positive annual change in five Major Regions: Central-West (8.6%), North (11.1%), Southeast (1.0%), Northeast (1.8%) and South (38.6%). As to the monthly change, the North Region (0.1%), South (2.0%) and Central-West (2.9%) increased. The Northeast and Southeast regions remained stable.
Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 29.3%, followed by Paraná (14.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.0%), Goiás (9.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.1%) and Minas Gerais (5.8%). These states together accounted for 80.3% of the national forecast.
Highlights in the January 2023 estimate in relation to the previous month
In relation to December, the production estimates for beans- 2nd crop (12.4% or 149,816 t), corn - 2nd crop (7.2% or 6,225,225 t), wheat (3.1% or 261,877 t), tomatoes (2.9% or 108,733 t), oat (2.6% or 28,581 t), potatoes - 2nd crop (2.0% or 23,158 t), sorghum (1.6% or 47,998 t), barley (1.1% or 4,946 t), beans - 3rd crop (0.1% or 499 t) and upland cottonseed (0.0% or 2,167 t) increased, and the production estimates for cashew nuts (-6.6% or -8,598 t), beans - 1st crop (-3.3% or 37,201 t), soybeans (-0.5% or -813,606 t), corn - 1st crop (-0.4% or -105,836 t), rice (-0.2% or -21,613 t), coffea arabica (-0.0% or -763 t) and coffea canephora (-0.0% or -13 t) decreased. The output of potatoes -1st and 3rd crops remained stable (0.0%).
Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 141.9 million tonnes (47.0%); South, 91.1 million tonnes (30.1%); Southeast, 28.1 million tonnes (9.3%); Northeast, 25.9 million tonnes (8.6%) and North, 15.0 million tonnes (6.0%).
In relation to the previous month, the major positive changes in the production estimates occurred in Mato Grosso (4,029,136 t), Paraná (1,776,034 t), Alagoas (11,192 t), Rondônia (9,401 t), Pará (5,812 t), Acre (1,862 t), Maranhão (219 t) and Rio de Janeiro (57 t). The major negative changes were registered in Goiás (-73,379 t) and Ceará (-15,907 t).
UPLAND COTTONSEED - The estimate for the output of cotton was of 6.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.7% in the average yield in relation to the last estimate. In relation to 2022, the output was expected to grow by 1.3%, due to the expansion in the cropped area. In 2022, the weather favored the production of cotton, especially in the second crop, when most of the culture is cropped.
PADDY RICE - The estimated production was of 10.3 million tonnes, a decline of 0.2% over the previous month (third forecast), of 3.6% over 2022 and of 4.4% in the area to be harvested. But that output should be enough to supply the Brazilian domestic market.
POTATOES - Considering the three crops of the product, the output of potatoes should reach 3.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.6% in relation to the third forecast. The harvested area declined 0.3%, whereas the average yield grew 0.9%. In relation to 2022, the output estimate for potatoes declined 4.8%.
The first crop should contribute with 46.9% of the total amount of potatoes to be produced in the year. The estimated production was of 1.8 million tonnes, remaining unchanged in relation to the third forecast. The second crop, which represented 30.7% of the total production, was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, 2.0% higher than the estimate of the third forecast. The area to be harvested declined 1.1%, whereas the estimate for the average yield rose 3.1%. Concerning the third crop, the output was estimated at 859.8 thousand tonnes, repeating the estimate of the third forecast.
COFFEE BEAN - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee was of 3.3 million tonnes, or 55.3 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 5.7% in relation to 2022. The average yield of 1 718 kg/ha, in turn, increased 1.6% in the annual comparison.
For coffea arabica, the production estimate was of 2.3 million tonnes or 38.6 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 13.7% in relation to the previous year. In 2022, the harvest of coffea arabica was of positive biennial bearings. However, it registered a lower growth in the production than that expected, since the dry and significantly cold weather in the winter of 2021, which included frosts, reduced the expected output potential. For 2023, the biennial bearings of the harvest should be negative. However, as the winter of 2022 did not face major climate problems and the rainfall was plenty, benefiting the crops, an increase in the output was expected, causing a “biennial reversal.”
Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was of 1.0 million tonnes or 16.8 million 60-kg sacks, a decline of 8.9% in relation to the previous year. The planted area grew 0.9% and the average yield, of 2 510 kg/ha, declined 9.8%.
CASHEW NUTS - The production estimate for 2023, of 122.3 thousand tonnes, declined 6.6% in relation to the third forecast, released in the previous month, and 16.9% in relation to what was produced in 2022. Such expected declines were due to concerns about the weather in 2023, since rainfall was fairly available in the major producer FUs in 2022.
WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The output of wheat should reach 8.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 13.6% over 2022, the best harvest in history and a record in the IBGE´s time series, as well as a very high comparison basis.
The output estimate of oat was 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 2.6% against the previous month and a decline of 4.6% against 2022. As for barley, the estimated output was of 467.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.1% in relation to the previous month and a decrease of 7.2% in relation to 2022.
BEAN SEED - The estimated output of beans, considering the three crops, was of 3.1 million tonnes, 3.8% higher than that of the third forecast. Although the planted area reduced 1.4%, the average yield grew 5.3%. In relation to the annual change, the estimate for the area to be harvested decreased 2.1%, with an increase of 2.7% in the average yield. The production estimate increased 0.5%. This output volume was expected to supply the domestic market in 2022.
The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a retreat of 3.3% over the estimate of the third forecast, due to the decreases of 2.8% in the average yield and of 0.6% in the estimate of the area to be harvested.
The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, an increase of 12.4% against the estimate of the third forecast, also with increases of 15.7% in the estimated average yield and of 2.8% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested. The second crop represented 44.0% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.
As for the third crop of beans, the estimated production was of 642.2 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.1% against the estimate of the last forecast, with an increase in the area to be harvested of 0.1% and the average yield remaining the same as in the last estimate.
CORN (grain) - The estimate for the production of corn was of 122.5 million tonnes, a rise of 5.3% over the third forecast, having the area to be harvested increased 2.2%, whereas the yield grew 3.0%. Compared with 2022, the growth in the output was 11.2%, with rises in the area to be harvested (4.1%) and in the average yield (6.9%).
The perspectives for the Brazilian output of corn in 2023 were very promising, since the planting of the summer harvest was on-time, which should provide a good “planting window” for corn - 2nd crop. As the prices were attractive, producers should possibly increase the investment in the crops. If this production is confirmed, it will be a new record in the output of corn in Brazil, surpassing the production reached in 2022.
For corn - 1st crop, the production remained at 29.4 million tonnes, representing a slight decrease of 0.4% or 105.8 thousand tonnes compared with the third forecast for 2023, as well as it decreased 0.6% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested. The climate period in the South Region justified the drop in the output, as it was marked by a strong drought and high temperatures.
The estimated production for the second crop of corn was of 93.1 million tonnes, a rise of 7.2% in relation to the third forecast for 2023. The positive change in the planted area and in the area to be harvested was of 3.1%, having the average yield grown 4.0%. Compared with the same period in 2022, increases of 4.7% were registered in the productivity, 9.9% in the output and 4.9% in the area to be harvested, resulting in more 8.4 million tonnes.
Although this gain did not seem to be high, it should be highlighted that it happened against a high comparison basis, since the production of the second crop of corn in 2022 was a record in the IBGE´s time series, which made it even more relevant.
SOYBEAN (grain) - The national output of soybeans should reach 147.5 million tonnes, an increase of 23.4% over the amount obtained last year, and it should represent nearly half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in Brazil in 2023. If this production is confirmed, it will be a new record in the output of that legume in Brazil, surpassing the production reached in 2021. In the comparison with the monthly data of the third forecast, the amount produced reduced 0.5%, mainly influenced by the drop of 0.7% in the average yield.
SORGHUM (grain) - The estimated production was of 3.0 million tonnes in January, a rise of 1.6% over the third forecast, released in the previous month. The average yield increased 1.6%, as well as the estimate of the area to be harvested, which rose 0.1% in the comparison. The average yield was of 2,995 kg/ha.
TOMATOES - The Brazilian estimated output of tomatoes in 2023 was of 3.8 million tonnes, pointing out to a rise of 2.9% against the third forecast and a drop of 0.7% in relation to 2022.