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IBGE forecasts harvest of 293.6 million tonnes for 2023, rise of 11.8% over 2022

December 08, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 09, 2022 10h32 AM

The second estimate for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2023 was of a record harvest of 293.6 million tonnes, a rise of 11.8% (or more 30.9 million tonnes) against 2022.

November´s Estimate for 2022 262.7 million tonnes
Harvest 2022/ harvest 2021 change 3.7% (9.4 million tonnes)
2022 harvest / 10th estimate 2022 change  -0.0% (110 thousand tonnes)
November´s Estimate for 2023 293.6 million tonnes
2nd estimate 2023/2022 harvest change 11.8% (30.9 million tonnes)
2nd estimate 2023/1st estimate 2023 change 1.9% (5.5 million tonnes)

The November´s estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds of 2022 reached 262.7 million tonnes, 3.7% above that obtained in 2021 (253.2 million tonnes), an increase of 9.4 million tonnes. The area to be harvested was of 73.2 million hectares, representing an increase of 4.7 million hectares (6.8%) over the area harvested in 2021. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main crops in this group, and, together, accounted for 91.5% of the output estimate and for 87% of the area to be harvested.

Compared with 2021, the area for corn increased 10.2% (increases of 6.6% in the first crop and of 11.4% in the second crop), the area for upland cottonseed increased 17.9%, the area for soybeans, 4.8% and the area for wheat, 11.8%, while the area for rice declined 3.2%.

Concerning the production forecast, upland cottonseed rose 15.2%, wheat, 22.3% and corn, 25.5%, being a drop of 1.0% for corn - 1st crop and an increase of 36.4% for corn - 2nd crop. Soybeans decreased 11.4% and paddy rice, 8.2%.

In November 2022, the IBGE carried out the second forecast of area and production for the 2023 harvest. The Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes should add up to 293.6 million tonnes in 2023, a growth of 11.8% over 2022 or 30.9 million tonnes.

The increase in production was mainly due to the bigger output expected for soybeans (22.5% or 26,866,714 tonnes), corn - 1st crop (15.8% or 4,022,128 tonnes), corn - 2nd crop (1.9% or 1,596,689 tonnes), upland cottonseed (0.8% or 31,682 tonnes), sorghum (4.5% or 127,774 tonnes) beans - 1st crop (4.2% or 45,884 tonnes). Decreases in production were estimated for rice (-3.1% or -332,552 tonnes), beans - 2nd crop (-10.4% or -139,148 tonnes), beans - 3rd crop (-1.0% or -6,542 tonnes) and wheat (-12.0% or -1,145,356 tonnes). Compared with the first estimate, the growth was of 1.9% or 5.5 million tonnes.

As for the expected area, positive changes were recorded in the case of soybeans (3.7%), beans - 2nd crop (0.7%), upland cotton (0.1%) and corn - 2nd crop (1.3%), and negative changes to paddy rice (-4.0%), sorghum (-1.4%), beans - 1st crop (-1.8%), beans - 3rd crop (-1.1%) and wheat (-2.4%).

The second estimate for the crop to be harvested in 2023 is re-viewable in the next survey in December, as well as during the follow up of the harvests that will be carried out along 2023.

2022 harvest should reach 262.7 million tonnes, a rise of 3.7%

The November´s estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds of 2022 reached 262.7 million tonnes, 3.7% above that obtained in 2021 (253.2 million tonnes), an increase of 9.4 million tonnes.

The estimated production of soybeans was 119.5 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was of 110.1 million tonnes (25.4 million tonnes of corn in the first crop and 84.7 million tonnes for corn in the second crop). The production of rice was estimated at 10.7 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 9.6 million tonnes; and that of cottonseed, at 6.7 million tonnes.

Compared with the previous month, the production estimates of potatoes - 2nd crop (4.3% or 53,076 t), sugarcane (4.1% or 24,568,533 t), beans - 2nd crop (2.8% or 37,207 t), sorghum (2.0% or 57,045 t), tomatoes (1.1% or 43,078 t), beans - 3rd crop (0.2% or 1,222 t), corn - 1st crop (0.2% or 40,443 t) and soybeans (0.1% or 78,405 t) increased. On the other hand, barley (-6.7% or -35,834 t), potatoes - 3rd crop (-1.5% or -16,400 t), beans - 1st crop (-0.7% or -7,760 t), corn - 2nd crop (-0.3% or -258,965 t), potatoes - 1st crop (-0.3% or -4,892 t), wheat (-0.2% or -22,781 t) and oat (-0.0% or -280 t) declined.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution:  Central-West, 130.7 million tonnes (49.7%); South, 65.2 million tonnes (24.8%); Southeast, 27.8 million tonnes (10.6%); Northeast, 25.4 million tonnes (9.7%) and North, 13.5 million tonnes (5.2%).

Compared with the previous month, the major positive changes in the production estimates occurred in Santa Catarina (402,656 t), São Paulo (189,602 t), Sergipe (138,837 t), Goiás (31,480 t), Rio Grande do Norte (4,108 t) and Espírito Santo (1,046 t). The major negative changes occurred in Rondônia (-502,409 t), Paraná (-232,245 t), Pará (-50,168 t), Alagoas (-39,289 t), Piauí (-29,259 t), Paraíba (-14,668 t), Ceará (-9,319 t) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-1,015 t).

POTATOES – The 11th production estimate for potatoes, considering the three crops of the product, was of 4.0 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8% over October. Having grown 4.3% in the output, São Paulo highlighted positively, whereas Santa Catarina declined 5.0%.

The first crop, expected to account for 41.9% of the total amount of potatoes produced in the year, dropped 0.3% over the previous month.  The production was estimated at 1.7 million tonnes. Compared with 2021, the production estimate stood 8.5% lower, following a reduction of 4.7% in the average yield and of 4.0% in the area to be harvested.

The second crop, which represented 31.7% of the total production, was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, 4.3% above the October´s  estimate. The production estimate of the third crop amounted to 1.1 million tonnes, a decline of 1.5% in relation to the previous month. The production estimate increased 3.6% in relation to 2021.

SUGARCANE – The Brazilian output of sugarcane was estimated at 627.1 million tonnes, representing an increase of 4.1% in relation to the previous month. The average yield of the sugarcane crops grew 1.5%, reaching 71,056 kg/ha in the national average, as well as the harvested area, which increased 2.6%, hitting 8.8 million hectares.

Accounting for 322.8 million tonnes (51.5% of the national output), São Paulo´s production rose 8.5%, with an increase of 5.3% in the planted area and of 3.0% in the productivity.

The Northeast Region recorded a reduction of 1.4% in the monthly output estimate, which reached 53.6 million tonnes. Negative reassessments in the output occurred in Maranhão (-2.2%),  Piauí (-0.1%), Rio Grande do Norte (-20.7%) and Ceará (-11.1%). Paraíba grew 2.3%, reaching a production of 5.9 million tonnes.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated production of wheat was 9.6 million tonnes, a decline of 0.2% against the previous month and an increase of 22.3% in relation to 2021, and the average yield is expected to reach 3,077 kg/ha, an increase of 9.4%. If the expected amount is confirmed, Brazil will have its biggest wheat harvest in history. The South Region was expected to account for 90.2% of the national wheat production in 2022.

The production estimate of oat was of 1.2 million tonnes, representing an increase of 10.3% in relation to 2021. The main producers of the cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 875.1 thousand tonnes, Paraná, with 233.3 thousand tonnes and Santa Catarina, with 37,836 tonnes, and the South Region accounted for 97.5% of the total to be produced in the country in 2022.

As for barley, the estimated output (502.5 thousand tonnes) decreased 6.7% in relation to the previous month and increased by 15.1% in relation to 2021. The biggest producers of this cereal were Paraná, with 344.2 thousand tonnes, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 141.6 thousand tonnes, which, together, represented 96.7% of the national overall.

BEAN SEED - The estimated output of beans, considering the three crops, was of 3.1 million metric tons, 1.0% higher than that of the previous month.  In this review, the Federation Units with the biggest participation in the production estimate were Paraná (24.5%), Minas Gerais (15.4%), Goiás (11.2%) and Mato Grosso (8.8%). The production estimate increased 11.3% in relation to 2021. This output volume was expected to supply the domestic market in 2022.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.7% against the October´s estimate. The output grew in Rio Grande do Norte (6.5%) and in Santa Catarina (7.8%), whereas declines were reported in Rondônia (-13.0%), Piauí (-6.0%), Paraíba (-19.4%) and São Paulo (-0.8%). The first crop represented 35.1% of the total amount of beans produced in the country.  The output declined 6.2% in relation to the previous year.

The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, an increase of 2.8% over October´s estimate. The second crop represented 43.5% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.  In Santa Catarina, the production was revised to 92.4 thousand tonnes, an increase of 99.1% in the month. Accounting for 41.7% of the total harvested in Brazil at this time, Paraná´s production was maintained in November, compared with October. The output of this crop increased 95.9% in relation to 2021.

For the 3rd crop of beans, the production estimate was of 659.4 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.2% over the October´s estimate. Of the nine states that reported the third crop of beans, only São Paulo updated its figures, with a forecast of an increase of 0.8% in the production estimate over October. That crop represented 21.3% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.  The output estimate should increase 10.5% in relation to the previous year.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate of corn hit 110.1 million tonnes, representing a drop of 0.2% over the previous month. Despite the high cost of production, high prices encouraged to plant corn. The output grew 25.5% in relation to 2021.

Concerning corn - 1st crop, the output was maintained at 25.4 million tonnes compared with the previous month, showing a slight increase of 0.2%. Although the harvested area had grown 6.6% in relation to the same period in 2021, the decrease of 1.0% in the output of corn - 1st crop was maintained, justified by the drop of 7.1% in the average yield. The adverse climate, especially in the center-south, where lack of rainfall and high temperatures occurred, was responsible for that reduction in the productivity.

Concerning corn - 2nd crop, the production was of 84.7 million tonnes, a retraction of 0.3% over the previous month. Compared with the previous month, retreats in the output were registered in Rondônia, 23.1% or 425.4 thousand tonnes, Pará, 8.9% or 68.4 thousand tonnes, Alagoas, 26.6% or 21.2 thousand tonnes and Piauí, 0.2% or 1.1 thousand tonnes, which were partially offset by the growth in the production in Sergipe, 18.4% or 138.2 thousand tonnes and São Paulo, 4.3% or 90.9 thousand tonnes.

The output grew 36.4% in relation to the same period in 2021. In 2022, the climate was favorable to the second crops, due to more rainfall in the major producing Federation Units, in contrast with 2021, which showed severe droughts.

SOYBEAN SEED - The national output reached 119.5 million tonnes, a rise of 0.1% over the previous month, confirming the retraction of 11.4% compared with that obtained in the previous year. The prolonged dry period in the central-south of Brazil accounted for the drop in soybean production in 2022, resulting in a decrease of 15.5% in average yield, despite the increase of harvested area in the year (4.8%), amounting to 40.9 million hectares.  The participation of soybean in the total volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2022 was of 45.6% and still remains as the most relevant grain in the group.

Having completed the 2022 harvest in Brazil, the Federation Units that still showed monthly reassessments were Santa Catarina and Alagoas, with increases of 7.0% and 6.8%, respectively. Rondônia (-3.4%) and Piauí (-0.1%) declined. As the biggest producer of soybeans in Brazil, Mato Grosso maintained the production estimate of the previous month, 38.0 million tonnes, 6.6% higher than that obtained in 2021.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated production was of 2.9 million tonnes in November, a rise of 2.0% over the previous month. As the biggest producer of this grain, with 52.2% of share in the national output, the Central-West Region had its estimate increased by 0.2%, leveraged by the increases in the amount produced and in the average yield recorded in Goiás, which were more than sufficient to offset the reduction in the harvested area. Goiás was the biggest producer of sorghum, accounting for 35.8% of the national production.

In the Southeast, responsible for 33.2% of share, the output in São Paulo increased 23.0%, leveraged by the expansion in the area, in spite of the reduction in the average yield. In Minas Gerais, which is the second biggest producer of sorghum, with a share of 23.0% of the national overall, the estimates of area, production and average yield remained constant. The expected output is of 658.4 thousand tonnes.