In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output positively changed 0.3% in October 2022 over September. In the seasonally-unadjusted series, industry grew 1.7% over October 2021. In the year, industry accumulated a drop of 0.8% and, in 12 month, a retreat of 1.4%.

With these results, the industrial sector was still 2.1% below the record level of the pre-pandemic period (February 2020) and 18.4% below the record level of May 2011.  Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the loss of pace in industry over the last months led the quarterly moving average to retreat in October 2022 and to step up the magnitude of the drop against that registered in the months of September and August.

In the positive change of 0.3% in the industrial activity between September and October 2022, two out of four major economic categories and seven out of 26 sectors surveyed increased their output. Among the activities, the most important positive influences were recorded by food products (4.8%) and basic metals (4.6%), the former offsetting part of the loss of 7.1% accumulated between September and August, and the latter increasing once again after declining 7.6% in the previous month.

On the other hand, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-6.7%),  machinery and equipment (-9.1%) and beverages (-9.3%) exerted the major negative impacts in October 2022, the first one recording the second consecutive month of reduction in the output and accumulating a loss of 6.8% in this period; the second one offsetting part of the advance of 16.9% in the months of September and August 2022; and the last one stepping up the retreat reported in the previous month (-5.7%).

Leather, traveling goods and footwear (-13.2%),  other chemicals (-3.0%), miscellaneous manufacturing (-12.5%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-7.1%), wood products (-8.8%), rubber and plastic products (-2.6%) and electrical machines, appliances and material (-3.5%) retreated as well.

Among the major economic categories, intermediate goods (0.7%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.3%) registered the positive rates in October 2022, after retreating for two consecutive months, accumulating losses of 2.6% and 3.5%, respectively. In contrast, the sectors producing capital goods (-4.1%) and durable consumer goods (-2.7%) recorded the negative figures this month, both of them reporting the second consecutive month of drop in the output and accumulating retreats of 4.7% and 2.9%, respectively.

Quarterly moving average changes -0.4% in quarter ended in October

Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average for the overall industry negatively changed 0.4% in the quarter ended in October 2022 over the previous month, after also declining in September (-0.3%) and August (-0.2%), when it interrupted the predominantly upward trend started in November 2021.

Among the major economic categories, semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.1%) and intermediate goods (-0.6%) registered the negative figures in October 2022 and both of them maintained the downward trend started in July 2022. On the other hand, the sectors producing durable consumer goods (1.0%) and capital goods (0.3%) recorded the advances this month, the former offsetting the retreat of 0.4% reported in the previous month, when it interrupted the upward trend started in March 2022, and the latter reporting the fourth consecutive positive rate and accumulating a gain of 1.4% in this period.

Industry advances 1.7% over October 2021

Compared with October 2021, the industrial sector grew 1.7% in October 2022, with positive figures in three out of four major economic categories, nine out of 26 sectors, 29 out of 79 groups and 44.2% of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that October 2022 (20 days) had the same number of business days as the same month a year ago (20).

Among the activities, the major positive influences on industry came from food products (12.2%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (12.6%) and mining and quarrying industries (4.5%), leveraged by the bigger production of items crystallized and VHP sugar, frozen beef, concentrated orange juice, fresh or cooled pork and cookies and crackers in the first one, cars, car pieces, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and bodies with engine for buses or trucks in the second one, and crude petroleum oil in the third one. Computer equipment, electronic and optical products (14.6%), other transportation equipment (30.0%), pharmaceuticals (10.1%) and pulp, paper and paper products (2.7%) also contributed positively.

Among 17 activities that dropped, wood products (-24.5%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-2.3%), beverages (-5.9%) and basic metals (-3.7%) exerted the biggest influences on industry, pressed by the smaller production of sawed, planed or polished wood, fiber and wood particle panels, plywood, densified wood (MDF) and wood doors and windows in the first one; diesel fuel, aviation kerosene, motor gasoline and fuel oils in the second one; beer and draft beer in the third one; and carbon steel wire, ferroniobium, cold-rolled and hot-rolled carbon steel coils, copper and copper-alloys bars, profiles and rebars, carbon steel rebars and galvanized coils or steel plates in the fourth one.

Among the major economic categories, the segment of durable consumer goods(11.8%) registered the sharpest rise against October 2021. the sectors of intermediate goods (1.9%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) also registered positive figures this month. Capital goods (-0.2%) recorded the only negative rate among the major economic categories.

The sector producing durable consumer goods grew 11.8% in October 2022 over the same period in 2021, the fifth consecutive positive figure in this type of comparison. That sector was leveraged by the rise in the manufacture of cars (22.7%). Conversely, the negative impacts came from white goods (-4.4%) and from the groups of other household appliances (-19.5%) and furniture (-20.1%).

The output of intermediate goods rose 1.9%, after declining 0.3% in September. The growth this month could be explained by the advances in products associated with the activities of food products (26.5%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (17.0%), mining and quarrying industries (4.5%),  other chemicals (1.2%), pulp, paper and paper products (2.5%) and machinery and equipment (3.7%), whereas the negative pressures came from coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-4.5%), basic metals (-3.7%), fabricated metal products (-6.7%), rubber and plastic products (-5.1%), non-metallic mineral products (-4.1%) and textiles (-6.5%). Still in this same economic category, it is also worth mentioning the negative results indicated by the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (-3.3%) and packaging (-1.2%).

The segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods positively changed 0.4% in October 2022, after declining 1.4% in September, when it interrupted five consecutive months of positive rates in this comparison. The positive performance this month was explained by the advances in the groups of non-durable (4.2%) and fuels (3.8%), leveraged, to a great extent, by the advances in the manufacture of medicines, books, brochures or forms on demand and cigarettes on the former one; and ethyl alcohol in the latter.

On the other hand, the groups of semi-durable (-4.9%) and food and beverages for domestic consumption (-0.5%) registered the negative rates in this category, pressed by the reduced manufacture of leather and molded plastic footwear, knitted shirts, knitted sets, men´s shirts (knitted or not), trousers, breeches, dungarees, shorts and the like (knitted or not), wearing apparel and its knitted accessories for babies, women´s knitted shirts, blouses and the like, plastic swimming pools, bathing suits and the like, bed linen, trousers and thermoses in the former; and beer, draft beer, refined sugar from sugarcane, ice cream and popsicles, chocolate drink powder, margarine, breads, dry pasta, sausages or salami and other meat preparations, and soft drinks in the latter.

The sector producing capital goods negatively changed 0.2% in October 2022 over the same period last year, interrupting two consecutive months of positive rates in this comparison. In the formation of the index this month, that segment was influenced by the reduction in the group of capital goods for industrial use (-7.2%), pressed by the reduced manufacture of serial (-5.1%) and non-serial (-16.6%) capital goods. The other negative figures came from capital goods for agricultural use (-13.2%) and mixed use (-3.7%). The positive impacts came from capital goods for transportation equipment (6.6%), for construction (25.3%) and for electricity (17.4%).

All the major economic categories accrue drops in the year.

In the cumulative index in the year over the same period of the previous year, the industrial sector dropped 0.8%, with negative figures in four out of four major economic categories, 15 out of 26 sectors, 56 out of 79 groups and 61.0% of the 805 products surveyed.

Among the activities, the major negative influences on the overall industry were registered by mining and quarrying industries (-3.2%), fabricated metal products (-10.1%), basic metals (-5.6%), electrical machines, appliances and material (-11.0%) and rubber and plastic products (-6.4%). It should also highlight the negative contributions from textiles (-12.7%), furniture (-17.7%), non-metallic mineral products (-4.5%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-7.4%), wood products (-9.8%), machinery and equipment (-1.7%) and pharmaceuticals (-3.9%).

Among 11 rising activities, that of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (7.1%) exerted the biggest influence on the industry average.

Among the major economic categories, the cumulative index in the year was less dynamic for durable consumer goods (-3.7%), pressed by the retreats in house appliances (-14.1%), especially white goods (-19.0%). The segments of intermediate goods (-0.7%), semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.6%) and capital goods (-0.5%) also declined, though below the industry average (-0.8%).