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IBGE expects record harvest of 288.1 million tonnes in 2023, with an increase of 9.6% from 2022

November 09, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 30, 2022 01h52 AM

The first estimate for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2023 was of a record harvest of 288.1 million tonnes, a rise of 9.6% (or more 25.3 million tonnes) against 2022.

OCTOBER estimate for 2022 262.8 million tonnes
Change - October/September 2022 (0,3%) 898 911 tonnes
Change - 2022 harvest / 2021 harvest (3,8%) 9.6 million tonnes
1st prospect 2023 288.1 million tonnes
Change - harvest 2023/2022 (9,6%) 25.3 million tonnes

In October, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2022 is 262.8 million tonnes, 3.8% (or 9.6 million tonnes) above that of 2021 (253.2 million tonnes) and 0.3% (or 898 911 tonnes above the September estimate.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) also indicates that the area to be harvested is 73.3 million hectares, being 6.8% (4.7 million hectares) bigger than the area harvested in 2021 and 0.1% (51 991 thousand hectares) bigger than estimated in September.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products in this group, together, represented 91.6% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. Against 2021, the area for corn increased 10.4% (6.8% in the 1st crop and 11.7% in the 2nd crop); the areas for soybeans and wheat increased 4.8% 10.8%, respectively, and that for rice decreased 2.6%.

As for production, increases were 15.2%, for upland cottonseed, 22.6%, for wheat, and 25.7% for corn, with a drop of 1.1% for corn - 1st crop and an increase of 36.8% for corn, 2nd crop. Soybeans decreased 11.5% and paddy rice, 8.1%.

In October 2022, IBGE carried out the first projection of the area and production for the 2023 harvest. The Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes is expected to reach 288.1 million tonnes, with an increase of 9.6% from 2022, or 25.3 million tonnes, a record in the IBGE time series.

The increase of production was mainly due to the production expected for soybeans (19.1% or 22 783 143 tonnes), corn 1st crop (16.8% or 4 273 026 tonnes), upland cottonseed (2.0% or 82 558 tonnes), sorghum (5.7% or 160 057 tonnes) and beans 1st crop (4.9% or 53 514 tonnes). Decreases in production were estimated for rice (-3.5% or -374 380 tonnes), corn 2nd crop (-0.2% or -163 690 tonnes), beans 2nd crop (-9.5% or -124 796 tonnes), beans 3rd crop (-3.7% or -24 607 tonnes) and wheat (-12.1% or -1 155 066 tonnes).

As for the expected area, positive changes were recorded in the case of soybeans (1.2%) and corn grain 1st crop (0.9%), and negative changes for paddy rice (-4.1%), corn grain 2nd crop (-0.6%),sorghum (-1.5%), beans 1st crop (-1.4%), beans 2nd crop (-0.1%), beans 3rd crop (-0.5%), upland cottoseed (-0.1%) and wheat (-1.6%).

Production is expected to grow in Paraná (28.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (52.5%), Goiás (1.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.4%), Minas Gerais (2.3%), Santa Catarina (15.2%), Tocantins (7.0%) and Rondônia (4.1%), and to decrease in Mato Grosso (-0.3%), São Paulo (-6.5%), Bahia (-3.3%), Maranhão (-2.4%), Piauí (-4.8%), Pará (-3.3%) and Sergipe (-0.1%).

October estimate for 2022 is of a record harvest of 262.8 million tonnes

The October estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds of 2022 reached 262.8 million metric tons, 3.8% above that that obtained in 2021 (253.2 million tonnes), an increase of 9.6 million tonnes. It increased by 0.3% (898 911 tonnes) against the previous month. The area to be harvested was of 73.3 million hectares, representing an increase of 6.8% against 2021, an increase of 4.7 million hectares. The area to be harvested increased 0.1% from the previous month (51 991 hectares).

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main crops in this group, and, together, accounted for 91.6% of the output estimate and for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. From 2021, the area for corn increased 10.4% (by 6.8% in the first crop and of 11.7% in the second crop), the area for upland cottonseed increased 17.9%, the area for soybeans, 4.8% and the area for wheat, 10.8%, while the area for rice declined 2.6%.

With regard to production, there were increases of 15.2% for upland cottonseed, 22.6% for wheat and 25.7% for corn, with a decrease of 1.1% in the case of corn 1st crop and an increase of corn 2nd crop. Soybeans decreased 12.6% and paddy rice, 8.1%.

The estimated production of soybeans was 119.5 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was of 110.4 million tonnes (25.4 million tonnes of corn 1st crop and 85.0 million tonnes for corn - 2nd crop). The production of rice was estimated at 10.7 million tonnes and that of wheat, at 9.6 million tonnes; and that of cottonseed, at 6.7 million tonnes.

South Region was the only one with a negative change

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered a positive annual change for four Major Regions: Central-West (12.2%), Southeast (12.6%), North (14.8%) and Northeast (10.1%). There was a decrease in the South (-15.4%). In the monthly change, there were increases in the North (0.6%) and in the Central West (0.7%), whereas the South recorded a decrease (-0.1%). In the Southeast (0.0%) and Northeast (0.0%) there was stability.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led as the biggest national producer of grain (30.7%), followed by Paraná (12.8%), Goiás (10.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.4%) and Minas Gerais (6.5%), which, together, represented 78.6 of the national overall.

Highlights in the October 2022 estimate in relation to the previous month

The main positive changes in output estimates against the previous year were those of Mato Grosso do Sul (670 385 tonnes), Rio Grande do Sul (220 906 tonnes), Goiás (186 872 tonnes), Pará (62 055 tonnes), Tocantins (19 798 tonnes), Rondônia (2 127 tonnes), Rio Grande do Norte (1 119 tonnes) and Acre (13 tonnes). The main negative changes were those of Paraná (-259 193 tonnes), Ceará (-4 123 tonnes), Minas Gerais (-1 035 tonnes) and Rio de Janeiro (-13 tonnes).

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated production of wheat was 9.6 million tonnes, a drop of 0.3% against the previous month and an increase of 22.6% in relation to 2021, and the average yield is expected to reach 3 112 kg/ha, an increase of 10.6%.

With negative production prospects for world productio, as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, major producers and exporters of the cereal, prices of these products rose, causing producers to expand planting areas available in the South of the country, and also to make more investments in the South Region, as well as regarding crop technology. If the expected amount is confirmed, Brazil will have its biggest wheat harvest in history.

The output estimate of oat was 1.2 million metric tons, an increase of 1.0% against the previous month and of 10.3% against 2021. As for barley, the estimated output (538.4 thousand tonnes) decreased by 0.4% in relation to the previous month and increased by 23.3% in relation to 2021.

BEAN (seed) – The estimated output of beans, considering the three crops was of 3.1 million metric tons, 0.7% above that in the previous month. The Federation Units with the biggest participation in produciton esimate were Paraná (24.7%), Minas Gerais (15.5%), Goiás (11.3%) and Mato Grosso (8.9%). Against 2021, the estimate for the area to be harvested increased 1.9%, with an increase of 8.1% in average yield. The production estimate was up 10.2%. This output volume is expected to supply the domestic market in 2022.

The 1st crop was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes with an increase of 0.8% against the September estimate, due to the increase of 0.8% in average yield.

The 2nd crop was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes with an increase of 0.7% against the September estimate, and an increase of 0.9% in average yield. The second crop represented 42.7% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil.

As for the 3rd crop, the estimated production is 658.2 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.5% against the estimate of September, with an increase in the area to be harvested of 0.6% and average yield recording a decrease of 0.1%.

CORN (grain) –- The production estimate of corn hit 110.4 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.7% against the previous month, as a result of 0.7% in average yield. There was an increase of 25.7% in production from 2021. Besides the contribution of weather to 2nd crops, there was an early harvest of soybean, which caused 2nd crop corn to be planted, mostly, in the planting window in most producing Federation Units.

For corn 1st crop, the estimate remained at 25.4 million metric tons against the previous month, with increases in Rio Grande do Norte (3.3%), Rondônia (3.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (2.9%) and Paraná (0.1%), making up for the drops in production in Goiás (-0.5%) and Ceará (-0.7%). Against the same period in 2021, the decrease of 1.1% in production of corn 1st crop, due to the decrease of 7.4% in average yield.

For corn 2nd crop, the output estimate recorded an increase of 1.0% from the previous month, and reached 85.0 million metric tons. In spite of the stability in harvested area, there was an increase of 0.9% in average yield. The increase from year 2021 was 36.8%. The Brazilian output of corn - 2nd crop hit a record in the IBGE time series, being the result of the increase in investments in the crop.

SOYBEAN (seed) – The national output reached 119.5 million tonnes, an estimate that remained stable throughout the month and confirmed the retraction of 11.5% compared to that in the previous year. The prolonged dry perid in the Central South of Brazil accounted for the drop in soybean production, resulting in a decrease of 15.5% in average yield, despite the increase of harvested area in the year (4.8%), amounting to 40.9 million hectares. The participation of soybean in the total volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2022 was of 45.1% and still remain as the most relevant grain in the group.

SORGHUM (grain) – The estimated production amounted to 2.8 million tonnes, a rise of 3.5% from the previous month. This increase may be split into 1.7% in average yield and 1.7% in the area to be harvested. Average yield was 2 757 kg/ha. Some Federation Units had average yield above the average: São Paulo, Ceará, Pará, Minas Gerais, besides all the states in the Central West Region.