The Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15) for October was 0.16%. The index had been -0.37% in September.

In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulated a rise of 4.80% and, in the last 12 months, of 6.85%, below the rate of 7.96% registered in the immediately previous 12 months. In October 2021, the rate had been 1.20%.

Like in the previous month, only three out of nine groups of the IPCA-15 recorded price drops. In October, the retractions were in Transportation (-0.64%), Communication (-0.42%) and Household articles (-0.35%). On the rising side, the highest changes came from Wearing apparel (1.43%) and Health and personal care (0.80%).

After the deflation in the previous month (-0.37%), the IPCA-15 rose 0.16% in October. The result was once again influenced by the drop in the group of Transportation (-0.64%), which contributed with -0.13 percentage points (p.p.) to the month´s index. In addition, the prices of Communication (-0.42%) and of Household articles (-0.35%) retreated. 

On the rising side, the highest changes came from Wearing apparel (1.43%), which decelerated in relation to September (1.66%), and Health and personal care (0.80%), which exerted the biggest positive impact (0.10 p.p.) on the month´s index. After falling 0.47% in September, Food and beverages rose 0.21% in October. The other groups stayed between the rate of 0.19% in Education and 0.57% in Personal expenses.

Like in September, the drop in the group of Transportation (-0.64%) was due to the retreat in the price of fuels (-6.14%). Ethanol (-9.47%), gasoline (-5.92%), diesel fuel (-3.52%) and vehicular gas (-1.33%) had their prices reduced in the reference period of the index. Gasoline contributed with the most intense negative impact (-0.29 p.p.) among 367 sub-items surveyed. Urban bus also dropped (-0.60%) with the reduction in the fare prices on Sundays in Salvador (-6.38%), in force since September 11.

Also on the rising side, airfare (28.17%) stood out, whose prices accelerated in relation to September (8.20%). Intercity bus (0.42%) was adjusted by 12.00% in Fortaleza (7.52%) since September 1st, and by 5.00% in Porto Alegre (2.39%) since October 4. Other important sub-items like vehicle licensing (1.72%) and car repair (0.64%) remained rising.

Another group that dropped in October was Communication (-0.42%), whose result was influenced by the reduction in the packages of Internet access (-1.69%) and mobile telephony (-1.35%). In addition, the prices of cell phones dropped (-0.87%). It is worth reminding that Complementary Law 194/22, enacted in the end of June, fixed a limit for the maximum rate of the ICMS on fuels, electricity and communications.

In the group of Wearing apparel (1.43%), the prices of footwear and accessories (1.82%), children´s wearing apparel (1.71%) and jewels (1.00%) accelerated in relation to September. On their turn, men´s wearing apparel (1.54%) and women´s wearing apparel (0.98%) registered less intense rises than those in the previous month (1.78% and 1.83%, respectively). 

In Health and personal care (0.80%), the highlight was the rise in the item health insurance plans (1.44%), due to adjustments authorized by the National Agency for Supplementary Health (ANS) for the plans signed before Law no. 9,656/98, in force since July. Therefore, the October´s IPCA-15 included the monthly fractions of the old plans related to the months of July, August, September and October. In addition, the prices of the items of personal hygiene increased 1.10% and contributed with 0.04 p.p. to the October´s IPCA-15.

After falling 0.47% in September, the group of Food and beverages rose 0.21% in October. The result was leveraged by food at home (0.14%), whose result had been -0.86% in the previous month. The rises in fruits (4.61%), potatoes (20.11%), tomatoes (6.25%) and onions (5.86%) contributed to this result. On the other hand, the prices of long-life milk (-9.91%), soybean oil (-3.71%) and meat (-0.56%) remained dropping.

Food away from home changed from 0.59% in September to 0.37% in October. While meals (0.44%) changed above the rate in the previous month (0.36%), snacks decelerated from 0.94% to 0.23%.  

In Housing (0.28%), electricity rose 0.07% in October. After the enactment of Complementary Law 194/22, the services of transmission and distribution were excluded from the calculation basis of the ICMS in the states that regulated such exclusion. However, cases in which the charges remained in force were pinpointed. In this respect, adjustments were made in the October´s IPCA-15 to offset the exclusion of the ICMS, aiming at accounting only what was effectively charged from consumers.  

It should be highlighted that, in a voluntary way, some concessionaires also decided to exclude transmission and distribution services from the calculation basis of the ICMS. The standard electricity bill has also accounted for this scenario, excluding such services from the calculation basis of the ICMS in these cases.  

Still in Housing, another sub-item that rose in October was water and sewage fees (0.39%), due to the average adjustment of 13.22% applied in one of the concessionaires of Porto Alegre (3.36%), in force since September 29.  

Nine out of 11 areas surveyed recorded positive changes in October. The highest change occurred in Brasília (0.56%), influenced by the rise in the prices of airfare (37.59%). The lowest change was registered in Curitiba (-0.24%), pressed by the drop in gasoline (-6.58%). 

In order to estimate the IPCA-15, the prices collected from September 15 to October 13, 2022 (reference) were compared with the ones in force from August 13 to September 14, 2022 (base).  The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.