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In August, IBGE’s harvest estimate for 2022 is 261.7 million tonnes

September 08, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 11, 2022 01h38 AM

In August, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2022 is expected to amount to 261.7 million tonnes, 3.3% higher than in 2021 and 0.7% below the result of July. The area to be harvested amounts to 73.0 million hectares, 6.5% more than in 2021 and 0.1% more than in July.

AUGUST estimate for 2022 261.7 million tonnes
AUGUST 2022/JULY 2022 change (-0.7%) 1.75 million tonnes
2022 harvest / 2021 harvest change (3.3%) 8.5 million tonnes

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which, together, represented 91.5% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. From 2021, there were increases of 9.8% in the area for corn (an increase of 7.7% for corn 1st crop and of 10.5% for corn 2nd crop). The national production of corn was expected to reach a new record in 2022. The production of upland cotton seed increased by 17.7%, that of soybeans, by 4.7% and that of wheat, by 9.0%. On the other hand, the area for rice dropped 2.6%.

For soybeans, the estimate was of 118.8 million tonnes and for corn, 109.9 million tonnes (25.8 million tonnes of corn - 1st crop and 84.1 million tonnes of corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.6 million metric tons and that of wheat, at 9.7 million metric tons; and that of cotton, at 6.7 million metric tons.

The production estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded positive annual change in four Major Regions: Central-West (11.4%), North (11.0%), Southeast (10.8%) and Northeast (10.63%) and negative annual change for the South (-14.6%). As for the monthly change, increase was seen in the North Region (2.1%) whereas the other Major Regions recorded decreases: Central West (-0.4%), South (-1.3%), Northeast (-0.3%) and Southeast (-1.9%).

Mato Grosso leads as main national producer of grain with a share of 30.8%, followed by Paraná (13.2%), Goiás (10.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.1%) and Minas Gerais (6.5%). These states, together, account for 78.7% of the expected harvest. As for participation of the Brazilian Major Regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (49.6%), South (25.1%), Southeast (10.4%), Northeast (9.7%) and North (5.2%).

Highlights in the August 2022 estimate in relation to the previous month

Against the previous month, increase was observed in the production estimates of potatoes - 3rd crop (6.3% or 59 799 t), barley (3.3% or 16 600 t), coffea canephora (2.5% or 26 796 t), beans - 3rd crop (0.9% or 5 825 t), corn - 1st crop (0.4% or 90 770 t), wheat (0.2% or 15 299 t), oats (0.1% or 1 300 t), soybeans (0.1% or 61 266 t), coffea arabica (0.0% or 854 t). Decreases were registered in sorghum (-8.6%% or -255 695 t), beans - 1st crop (-1.5% or -16 288 t), cashew nuts (-1.1% or -1 352 t), beans - 2nd crop (-0.7% or -9 348 t), potatoes - 2nd crop (-0,5% ou -6 572 t) and potatoes - 1st crop (-0.2% or - 3 922 t).

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 129.8 million tonnes (49.6%); South, 65.5 million tonnes (25.1%); Southeast, 27.2 million tonnes (10.4%); Northeast, 25.4 million tonnes (9.7%) and North, 13.6 million tonnes (5.2%).

The main positive changes in the production estimate, from the previous month, came from Rondônia (273 222 t), Acre (11 501 t), Maranhão (9 991 t), Rio Grande do Norte (4 829) and Rio de Janeiro (7 t). The main negative changes were those of Paraná (-865 300 t), Goiás (-559 010 t), Minas Gerais (-532 786 t), Ceará (-70 185 t), Alagoas (-24 753 t), Espírito Santo (-30 t and Piauí (-10 t).

POTATO – The eighth production estimate for potato, considering the three crops of the product, was 3.9 million tonnes, with an increase of 1.3% from July due to the increase of rise (1.6%) of average yield. In relation to 2021, the national production estimate of potatoes dropped 4.6%. Minas Gerais is the main national producer, with 1.3 million tons, which is 32.9% of the total.

The first crop, expected to account for 43.1% of the total amount of potatoes produced in the year, dropped 0.2% from the previous month. Production was estimated at 1.7 million tonnes. The second crop, which represented 31.5% of the total production, was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, 0.5% below the July estimate. The production estimate of the third crop amounted to 1.0 million tonnes, with an increaase of 6.3% from the previous month.

COFFEE BEAN - Considering the two types, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee amounted to 3.2 million tonnes, or 53.7 million 60-kg sacks, with an increase of 0.9% against the previous month and a decrease of 9.6% against the previous year. The average yield of 1,739 kg/ha, in turn, increased 8.2% in the annual comparison.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate reached 2.1 million metric tons or 35.1 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 9.7% from the previous year. In 2022, the coffea arabica crop registered positive biannuality, which results in a significant increase of the production. Nevertheless, the dry and excessively cold winter in 2021 reduced the expected prodution.

As for coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was of 1.1 million metric tons or 18.6 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 2.5% in relation to the previous month and of 9.4% in relation to 2021.

CASHEW NUT – The estimated production for 2022 was of 121.7 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 1.17% against July and an increase of 9.9% against 2021, with a rise of 10.8% of average year, in this comparison. This increase of production was due to bigger occurrence of rainfall in 2022.

WINTER CEREALS – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated production of wheat was 9.7 million metric tons, a growth of 0.2% against the previous month, with an increase of 24.1% against 2021, and the average yield is expected to reach 3 201 kg/ha, up 13.8%.

The output estimate of oat was 1.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.1% against the previous month and of 13.8% against 2021. The production estimate of barley amounted to 516.4 thousand tonnes, with an increase of 3.3% against the previous month and of 18.2% against 2021. The main producers are Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, which represent 96.6% of the total national production.

BEAN SEED – The estimated output of beans, considering the three crops was of 3.1 million tonnes. This estimate is 0.6% lower than in the previous month. Production is enough to supply the domestic demand in Brazil.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.5% from July’s estimate. The first crop represented 36.1% of the total amount of beans produced in the country.

The fisecond rst crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.7% against the July estimate. The area to be harvested was reduced by 1.2%, whereas average yield increased 0.5%, to 1 172 kg/ha. The second crop represents 42.5% of the total amount of beans produced in Brazil, thus becoming the main one.

As for the 3rd crop, the estimated production is 655.4 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.9% against the estimate of July, with increase in the area to be harvested of 2.8% and average yield recording a decrease of 1.8%, to 778 kg/ha.

CORN GRAIN – The production estimate of corn hit 109.9 million tonnes, representing a decline of 1.4% against the previous month, and an increase of 25.2% from 2021 or 22.1 million tonnes more. Differently from the previous year, in 2022, the wheather was responsible for the 2nd crops, mainly corn, due to the early harvest of soybeans.

The production estimate for the first crop was 25.8 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.4% from the previous month. In August, in relation to the previous month, there was an increase in production estimates of Goiás (7.1%), Rio Grande do Norte (15.1%) Rondônia (21.7%), and a decrease in Paraná (-0.4%).

For corn - 2nd crop, the estimated production reached 84.1 million tonnes, a drop of 1.9% in relation to the previous month and an increase of 35.3% in relation to the 2021, with a growth of 8.5% in the planted area and of 10.5% in the area to be harvested. The average yield recorded an increase of 22.5% (5 309 kg/ha). Brazilian output of corn - 2nd crop hit a record in the time series of the IBGE, resulting from increased investments in the crop, motivated by the excellent prices of the product and by the weather conditions.

SOYBEANS - The national production remained at 118.8 million tonnes, an estimate that represents a monthly increase of 0.1%, with a decrease of 11.9% against what was obtained in the previous year, with a decrease of 15.9% in average yield. The impacts of the prolonged dry period in the Central South were reflected in the Brazilian production of soybenas in 2022. The harvested area was estimated at 40.8 million hectares, with an increase of 0.1% from the previous month and of 4.7% from 2021. The participation of soybean in the total volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2022 was of 45.4%, the most relevant in the group.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The estimated production amounted to 2.7 million tonnes, a drop of 8.6% against the previous month. There was decease of 9.0% in the average yield, whereas the estimate of the area to be harvested increased 0.4% in this comparison. The average yield was of 2 710 kg/ha.