in July, IBGE forecasts record crop of 263.4 million metric tons for 2022
August 11, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: August 12, 2022 04h31 PM
In July, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2022 should account for the record crop of 263.4 million metric tons, 4.0% higher than that of 2021 (253.2 million metric tons), a growth of 10.2 million metric tons and 0.8% above the information reported before, with growth of 2.0 million metric tons.
|Estimate of JULY for 2022||263.4 million metric tons|
|JULY 2022/ JUNE 2022 Change||(0.8%) 2.0 million metric tons|
|2022/ 2021 crop change||(4.0%) 10.2 million metric tons|
The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) points out that the area to be harvested is 73.0 million hectares, 6.4% greater than that of 2021 (4.4 million more hectares) and 0.6% (436.6 thousand hectares) higher than June's forecast.
Rice, corn and soybeans, the three major products of this group, together represent 91.4% of the estimated production and account for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2021, there were increases of 9.7% in the corn area (7.7% in the first crop and 10.4% in the second). The national production of corn, in 2022, should reach a new record.
There was also an increase of 18.1% in upland cotton seed, 4.6% in soybeans and 8.6% in wheat. On the other hand, there was a drop of 2.7% in the rice area.
In the production projection, there were increases of 15.3% for upland cotton seed, 23.9% for wheat and 27.0% for corn, with growth of 0.3% for corn in the 1st crop and of 38.0% in corn in the 2nd crop. There were decreases of 12.0% for soybean and 8.5% for paddy rice.
The July estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds of 2022 reached 263.4 million metric tons, 4.0% higher than that obtained in 2021 (253.2 million metric tons), a growth of 10.2 million metric tons. It rose 0.8% (2 million metric tons) in relation to the previous month. A area to be harvested was of 73.0 million hectares, representing a growth of 6.4% against the area harvested in 2021, an increase of 4.4 million hectares. The area to be harvested increased 0.6% (436.6 thousand hectares) in relation to June.
A production of 118.8 million metric tons was estimated for soybeans. For corn, the estimate was of 111.5 million metric tons (25.8 million metric tons of corn - 1st crop and 85.7 million metric tons of corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.6 million metric tons and that of wheat, at 9.7 million metric tons; and that of cotton, at 6.7 million metric tons.
The production estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded positive annual change in four Major Regions: Central-West (11.9%), Southeast (13.0%), North (8.7%) and Northeast (10.6%), and a negative change for the South (-13.5%). As to the monthly change, increase was seen in the Central-West Region (1.1%), North (3.0%) and South (0.6%) and decline, in Northeast (-0.3%) and the Southeast (-0.2%).
Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led as the biggest national producer of grain (30.6%), followed by Paraná (13,4%), Goiás (10.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.1%) and Minas Gerais (6.7%), which, together, represented 79.0% of the national overall. In relation to the participation of the Brazilian Major Regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (49.5%), South (25.2%), Southeast (10.5%), Northeast (9.7%) and North (5.1%).
Highlights in the July 2022 estimate in relation to the previous month
In relation to the previous month, there was increase in the estimated production of wheat (9.3% or 820,158 t), oats (4.9% or 55,995 t), barley (3.4% or 16,574 t), Coffea canephora (2.4% or 25,319 t ), cashew nuts (1.8% or 2,222 t), sorghum (1.3% or 38,691 t), soybeans (0.7% or 814,164 t), 2nd crop beans (0. 5% or 5,895 t), 2nd crop of corn (0.4% or 350,310 t), 3rd crop of beans (0.4% or 2,275 t) and declines of 1st crop of beans (-2.0% or -22,937 t), 1st crop of corn (-0.2% or -51,256 t) and Coffea arabica (-0.0% or 1,006 t).
Among the Major Regions, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 130.4 million metric tons (49.5%); South, 66.5 million metric tons (25.2%); Southeast, 27.7 million metric tons (10.5%); Northeast, 25.5 million metric tons (9.7%) and North, 13.3 million metric tons (5.1%).
The major positive changes in the production estimate, in relation to the previous month, came from Mato Grosso (1,467,212 t), Rio Grande do Sul (1,068,519 t), Tocantins (384,107 t), Ceará (61,475 t), Rondônia (6 166 t), Maranhão (684 t) and Rio de Janeiro (39 t). The major negative changes occurred in Paraná (-699,800 t), in Piauí (-112,582 t), in the Federal District (-88,020 t), in Minas Gerais (-63,543 t), in Paraíba (-30,569 t), in Rio Grande do Norte (-3,314 t) and in Pará (-1,106 t).
COFFEE BEAN - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee for 2022 was of 3.2 million metric tons, or 53.2 million 60-kg sacks, with a growth of 0.8% against the previous month and an increase of 8.6% against the 2021. For coffea arabica, the production estimate was of 2.1 million metric tons or 35.1 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 9.6% in relation to the previous year. In 2022, the Coffea arabica crop was of positive biannuality, which should result in a significant increase of the production. However, the dry and extremely cold weather in the winter of 2021, which even caused frosts in some producing areas, has reduced the expected potential. Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was of 1.1 million metric tons or 18.1 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 2.4% in relation to the previous month and of 6.8% in relation to 2021.
WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated production of wheat was 9.7 million metric tons, a growth of 9.3% against the previous month and of 23.9% against 2021, and the average yield is expected to reach 3 210 kg/ha, with an increase of 14.1%.
The output estimate of oat was 1.2 million metric tons, an increase of 4.9% against the previous month and of 13.6% against 2021. As for barley, the estimated output (499.8 thousand metric tons) increased by 3.4% in relation to the previous month and by 14.4% in relation to 2021.
BEAN SEED - The estimated output of beans, considering the three crops was of 3.1 million metric tons, 0.5% lower than that of the previous month. In relation to the annual change, the estimate for the area to be harvested increased 2.5%, with an increase of 7.6% in average yield. The production estimate increased 10.7%. This output volume should meet the demands of the domestic market this year.
The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million metric tons, a retreat of 2.0% over June’s estimate. The first crop represented 36.4% of the total amount of beans produced in the country.
The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, an increase of 0.5% over June’s estimate. The area to be harvested grew 2.5%, whereas the average yield fell 2.0%. This second crop represents 42.5% of the total beans produced in the country, this becoming the major one, since the summer crop tend to focus on soybeans due to greater profitability.
For the 3rd crop of beans, the production estimate was of 649.6 thousand metric tons, an increase of 0.4% over June and a high of 0.4% in the average yield.
CORN (grain) - The production estimate of corn hit 115.0 million metric tons, representing an increase of 0.3% against the previous month and of 27.0% in relation to 2021, that is, 23.7 million metric tons more. Differently from 2021, in 2022, the weather has contributed to the second crops, notably to corn, which due to the advance in soybean harvest, could be planted mostly in the planting window in most producing Federation Units.
For corn - 1st crop, the estimated production was of 25.8 million metric tons, a decline of 0.2% in relation to the previous month. It grew 0.3% in relation to the 2021 harvest, despite the increase of 7.7% in the area to be harvested. The average yield reduced 6.8% due to the lack of rainfall, especially in the Brazilian South Region.
For corn - 2nd crop, the estimated output hit 85.7 million metric tons, an increase of 0.4% in relation to the previous month and of 38.0% in relation to 2021, with a growth of 8.5% in the planted area and of 10.4% in the area to be harvested. The average yield recorded an increase of 25.0%. Brazilian output of corn - 2nd crop hit a record in the time series of the IBGE, resulting from increased investments in the crop, motivated by the excellent prices of the product and by the weather conditions.
In most Federation Units important in the production of that cereal, the weather jeopardized the development of the crops in the second crop of 2021. In addition, the agricultural year was delayed, shortening the planting window - which also helped reducing production. Therefore, the high growth in the production of corn - 2nd crop in 2022 was also due to the low comparison basis of the output last year.
SOYBEAN GRAIN - The national production should reach 118.8 million metric tons, a monthly increase of 0.7%, however a retraction of 12.0% over 2021, having declined 15.9% in the average yield. The harvested area was estimated at 40.8 million hectares, a 4.6% in the comparison with 2021, and of 0.2% in relation to the previous month. The participation of soybean in the total volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2022 was of 45.1% and still remain as the most relevant grain in the group.
SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated production was of 3.0 million metric tons in July, a rise of 1.3% over the previous month. There was decease of 1.1% in the average yield, whereas the estimate of the area to be harvested increased 2.5% in this comparison. The average yield was of 2 978 kg/ha.