The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) was 0.13% in July, 0.56 percentage points (p.p.) below the rate registered in June (0.69%). It was the lowest monthly change of the IPCA since June 2020 (0.02%). The cumulative change in the year was 5.79% and, in the last 12 months, 11.39%, below the rate of 12.04% recorded in the 12 immediately previous months. The rate had been 0.72% in July 2021.

Six out of nine groups of products and services surveyed registered positive changes.  The greatest impact (0.25 p.p.) came from Food and beverages (1.16%), which accelerated in relation to June (0.25%). The highest change came from Wearing apparel (1.39%), which accumulated a rise of 11.01% in the year. On the dropping side, the groups of Transportation (-1.08%) and Housing (-0.78%) stood out by jointly contributing with -0.36 p.p. to the month´s index. The other groups stood between the drop of 0.05% in Communication and the rise of 0.79% in Personal expenses.

The result of the group of Food and beverages (1.16%) was mainly influenced by the increase in the prices of long-life milk (22.27%), the greatest individual impact on the month´s index (0.18 p.p.). In the year, the cumulative change of this product reached 57.42%. In addition, some dairy products also rose in the July´s IPCA-15, like cream cheese (4.74%), butter (4.25%) and cheese (3.22%). Having dropped in June (-2.61%), fruits also stood out (4.03%), as well as carioca beans (4.25%) and French bread (1.47%). As a result, food at home changed 1.12% in July.

Food away from home rose 1.27% in July, accelerating in relation to June (0.74%). Both snacks (2.18%) and meals (0.92%) reported changes above those registered in June (of 1.10% and 0.70%, respectively).

In Wearing apparel (1.39%), the highlight was men’s wearing apparel, whose prices increased 1.97% in July. In addition, rises above 1% were also recorded in the prices of footwear and accessories (1.57%) and women’s wearing apparel (1.32%).

The drop in the group of Transportation (-1.08%) was influenced by the retreat in the prices of fuels (-4.88%), especially gasoline (-5.01%) and ethanol (-8.16%) Having risen 7.32%, Diesel fuel remained on the opposite side of the other fuels. On the rising side, airfare increased 8.13%, contributing with 0.05 p.p. to the July´s IPCA-15. The positive change of urban bus (0.67%) should also be mentioned, a consequence of the adjustment of 11.36% in the fare of Salvador (7.46%), in force since June 4.

In Housing (-0.78%), the drop of 4.61% in residential electricity stood out. The green tariff flag remained in force in July, not exerting any additional charge in the electricity fare. The changes in electricity in the areas ranged from -12.02% in Goiânia, where the ICMS was reduced from 29% to 17% on June 23, up to 1.09% in Recife. The ICMS was also reduced in several other regions, like Curitiba (-10.28%), Porto Alegre (-10.19%) and Salvador (-6.90%), under Complementary Law no. 194 and its subsequent incorporation into the state legislations. Some areas registered adjustments in the fare:

In addition to those regions, an adjustment of 8.72% was also applied in one of the concessionaires in Porto Alegre (-10.19%), in force since June 22, of 10.43% in one of the concessionaires in São Paulo (-3.50%), in force since July 4, and of -4.34% in one of the concessionaires in Rio de Janeiro (-0.98%), in force since July 13. In addition to the fare per kWh, tariff flag and ICMS, the electricity fare also includes the street lightning rate (TIP) and the rates of PIS/COFINS.

Still in Housing, the positive change in water and sewage fees (0.66%) was due to the adjustments in three regions: Belém (8.43%), an adjustment of 20.81% since May 28; Porto Alegre (3.86%), a total adjustment of 18.16% in one of the concessionaires since July 1st; and Curitiba (0.46%), an adjustment of 4.99% since May 17.

An adjustment of 9.16% was also recorded in the fare of piped gas in Curitiba, in force since May 18. As a result, the result of that sub-item in the area stayed at 1.10% and, in Brazil, at 0.14%.

Seven out of 11 areas surveyed by the IPCA-15 rose. The highest rise was in Recife (0.87%), due to gasoline (1.25%) and snacks (3.95%). The lowest result was registered in Goiânia (-0.98%), influenced by the drops in gasoline (-11.91%) and electricity (-12.02%).

In order to estimate the IPCA-15, the prices collected from June 14 to July 13, 2022 (reference) were compared with the ones in force from May 14 to June 13, 2022 (base). The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, as well as Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.