In May, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2022 is expected to hit the record figure of 263.0 million tonnes, 3.8% above (9.7 million tonnes) that of 2021 (253.2 million tonnes). The May estimate increased by 0.6% in relation to the previous one (261.5 million de tonnes).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) shows that the area to be harvested is 72.3 million hectares, 5.5% (3.8 million hectares) bigger than the area harvested in 2021 and 0.5% (371.0 thousand hectares) bigger than estimated in the previous month.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which, altogether, represented 91.7% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.4% of the area to be harvested. Against 2021, there were increases of 8.5% in the area for corn production (7.3% in the first crop and 8.9% in the second one), of 18.0% in the area for upland cotton, of 4.3%, for soybeans, and of 2.1% in the area for wheat. On the other hand, the area for rice decreased 2.2%.

The soybean output is expected to reach 118.6 million tonnes, with an increase of 0.1% in relation to the amount produced last month and a decrease of 12.1% against the amount produced the year before. The output of corn was estimated at 112.0 million tonnes, a growth of 0.1% against the previous month and of 27.6% in relation to 2021. The output estimate for rice (10.6 million tonnes) declined 8.4% against 2021.

May’s report for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2022 reached 263.0 million tonnes and a harvested area of 72.3 million hectares. The area to be harvested increased 5.5% (3.8 million hectares) in relation to 2021. There was an increase of 371.0 thousand hectares (0.5%) in relation to the previous monthly estimate.

Estimates of three Major Regions increased from the previous month: the South (1.5%), the Southeast (2.7%) and the Northeast (1.0%). The North was stable (0.0%), whereas the Central West recorded a decrease of 0.4%. Against The output of last year, the Southeast must have output increase of 14.4%, with 28.1 million metric tons (10.7% of the national total). With a total 25.6 million tonnes, the Northeast is expected to produce 11.0% more than in the previous year, representing 9.7% of the national output of grain. In the North, the estimated production is 12.9 million tonnes, an increase of 5.2% against that of 2021. Considering the South Region, there is an estimated decrease of 13.2%, with a total 66.7 million tonnes (25.4% of the total in the country).

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led is the main producer of grain, with a share of 30.1%, followed by Paraná (13.9%), Goiás (10.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.2%) and Minas Gerais (6.8%), which, together, accounted for 79.0% of the national overall. The main positive changes in output estimates, in relation to the previous month, were those of Minas Gerais (738.0 thousand tonnes), Rio Grande do Sul (720.7 thousand tonnes), Paraná (244.4 thousand tonnes), Bahia (210.6 thousand tonnes), Alagoas (14.8 thousand tonnes, Ceará (11.6 thousand tonnes), Maranhão (7.6 thousand tonnes), Acre (2.3 thousand tonnes), Rio de Janeiro (529 tonnes) and Rondônia (36 tonnes). Mato Grosso (-476.1 thousand tonnes) and Rio Grande do Norte (-90 tonnes) recorded the main decreases.

Highlights in the May 2022 estimate in relation to the previous month

In May, the following positive changes in output estimates from February stood out: oats (13.6% or 137.1 thousand tonnes), wheat (12.1 % or 956.3 thousand tonnes), barley (4.0% or 18.1 million tonnes), cotton seed (3.2% or 207.7 thousand tonnes), corn - 1st crop (1.6% or 403.6 thousand tonnes), beans - 3rd crop (1.4% or 9.6 thousand tonnes), beans - 1st crop (1.4% or 15.2 thousand tonnes), coffea canephora (0.8% or 8.7 thousand tonnes) and soybean (0.1% or 92.4 thousand tonnes).

On the other hand, decreases were for coffea canephora (-5.9% or -132.2 thousand tonnes), for beans - 2nd crop (-1.4% or -18.6 thousand tonnes), for sorghum (-1.2% or -36.1 thousand tonnes) and for corn - 2nd crop (-0.3% or -253.3 thousand tonnes).

UPLAND COTTONSEED The estimate for planted area increased 6.9% in the month and 17.9% in the year. As a result, the estimaed output (6.7 million tonnes) increased 3.2% against the previous month and 15.2% against 2021.

In the case of Mato Grosso, which accounts for more than 71.4% of the national production, the estimate rose 5.2% against the previous month. In relation to 2021, production is expected to increase by 19.9%, having as the main reason the increase of planted area (23.8%).

In Bahia, responsible for 20.2% of the national harvest, the output estimate fell 1.3% in relation to the previous month due to the decrease in productivity. Minas Gerais also updated its monthly estimates and recorded decreases of 12.6% in planted area, with effects in output (-11.0%). In the year, production in Minas is still 2.0% above that of 2021, due to the increase of 7.8% in productivity. The output is expected to reach 100.3 thousand tonnes.

COFFEE BEAN - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee was 3.2 million tonnes, or 52.8 million 60-kg sacks, a decrease of 3.7% in relation to the previous month and of 7.8% against 2021. The average yield of 1,717 kg/ha, in turn, increased 6.8% in the annual comparison.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was 2.1 million tonnes or 35.2 million 60-kg sacks, a drop of 5.9% in relation to the previous month and an increaase of 9.8% from last year.

Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8% from the previous month and of 4.1% from 2021. Planted area increased 1.9% in relation to the latest comparison, and the average yield, of 2 629 kg/ha, increased 2.1%.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated production of wheat was 8.9 million tonnes, a growth of 12.1% against the previous month and of 13.6% against the previous year, and the average yield is expected to increase 3,131 kg/ha, with an increase of 11.3%. The South Region is expected to account for 89.9% of the national wheat production in 2022. In Paraná, main wheat producer, with a contribution of 43.7% to the national overall, output was estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, an increase of 0.5% in relation to the previous month and of 20.8% from 2021.

The output estimate of oat was 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 13.6% against the previous month and of 8.2% against 2021. The biggest producers of this cereal are Rio Grande do Sul , with 841.6 thousand tonnes, and Paraná, with 244.7 thousand tonnes.

As for barley, the estimated output (475.5 thousand tonnes) increased by 4.0% in relation to the previous month and by 8.9% in relation to 2021. The biggest producers of this cereal were Paraná, with 345.8 thousand tonnes, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 112.1 thousand tonnes, which, together, represented 96.3% of the national overall. The amount produced by São Paulo and Santa Catarina were estimated at 15.7 thousand and 2.0 thousand tonnes, respectively.

BEAN SEED The estimated output of beans, considering the three crops was 3.2 million tonnes. This estimate is 0.2% higher than that in the previous month. In this review, the Federation Units with the biggest participation in the produciton estimate were Paraná (25.0%), Minas Gerais (16.7%), Goiás (9.9%) and Mato Grosso (8.5%). In relation to the annual change, the estimate for area to be harvested increased 2.0%, with an increase of 12.8% in average yield. The production estimate increased 15.0%. This output volume is aimed at domestic consumption.

The 1st crop was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes with an increase of 1.4% against the April estimate, due to the increase of 1.5% in average yield. There was an increase in production in the Northeast (2.0%), notably in Ceará (8.1%), where the rainy weather had been beneficial to crops. The first crop represented 35.5% of the total amount of beans produced in the country.

The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, a retreat of 1.4% against the April estimate, also with decreases of 2.0% in the estimated average yield and 0.1% in the estimated area to be harvested. The second crop represents 42.5% of the total beans produced in the country.

The output estimate of the 3rd crop was 701.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.4% against the April estimate, with an area to be harvested 0.2% smaller and average yield 1.6% lower. Of the nine states with datafor the third crop of beans, seven of them maintained the estimates of the last survey. Highlights, in positive terms, were Minas Gerais (7.2%), and in negative terms, Mato Grosso (-2.9%). The first crop represented 22.02% of the total amount of beans produced in the country.

CORN (grain) The production estimate of corn hit 112.0 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.1% against the previous month and of 27.6% in relation to 2021, that is, 24.3 million tonnes. After a significant drop in the production in 2021, caused by a late planting and lack of rainfall in the major producing Federation Units, a regular year was expected, especially during the second crop, which is the major one and should account for 77.4% of the Brazilian output. The national production of corn is expected to reach a new record.

The production estimate for the first crop is 25.7 million tonnes, representing an increase of 1.6% from the previous month. As for the 2021 harvest, there was a decrease of 0.2%, despite the increase of 7.3% in the area to be harvested, and the average yiled fell 6.6% as a result of the lack of rain. In Rio Grande do Sul, production was estimated at 3.0 million tonnes, a decrease of 32.1% in relation to what was produced in the 2021 harvest. Crops in Rio Grande do Sul faced severe draought and productivity fell 31.9%.

For corn - 2nd crop, the estimated output hit 86.3 million tonnes, a decline of 0.3% in relation to the previous month and an increase of 38.9% in relation to the 2021, with a growth of 6.9% in the planted area and of 8.9% in the area to be harvested. Average yield recorded an increase of 27.6%. Brazilian output of corn - 2nd crop hit a record in the time series of the IBGE, being the result of increase in investments in the crop.

Growth in production is expected in Mato Grosso (17.1%), Paraná (178.3%), Goiás (9.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (80.9%), Minas Gerais 66.9%), São Paulo (27.5%), Rondônia (18.5%), Tocantins (1.5%), Bahia (8.3%), Piauí (81.7%), Alagoas (53.5%), Pará (7.2%) and the Federal District (54.2%). On the other hand, drops are expected in Maranhão (-10.7%) and in Sergipe (-0.8%).

SOYBEAN (grain) - With harvest virtually over in the main producing states, the estimate of the national output of soybeans in May registered an increase of 0.1.0% in volume of grains. In a harvest marked by harsh climate effects, national production is expected to hit 118.6 million tonnes, which represents a retraction of 12.1% compared with that obtained in the previous year. Harvested area was estimated at 40.6 million hectares, an increase of 4.3% against 2021, with a decrease of 15.7% in average yield, of 2,918 kg/ha. The participation of soybean in the total volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2022, is expected to fall to 45.1% and still remains as the most relevant in the group.

Mato Grosso, main national producer, has an estimated output of 37.4 million tonnes, a volume 5.0% above that in the previous year, thus constituting a new record in the time series of production, with a 4.5%increment in harvested area. Goiás accounts for the second biggest volume of soybeans produced in the country, in 2022, with an output of 14.8 million tonnes. Harvested area increased 7.0% in the year.

In Paraná, with crop failure this year, the volume produced must be 38.7% smaller than in the previous harvest, also due to the effects of the dry period, made worse by the extreme heat. Average yield is expected to be 38.7% smaller than in the previous harvest. After a monthly positive adjustment of 1.7%, state production is expected to reach 12.2 million tonnes.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated production in May is 2.9 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.2% against the previous month. The drop of 1.7% in average yield was one of the variables affecting this result. The area to be harvested grew 0.5%. The Central West, biggest producer of this grain, with 52.3% of participation in national production, de participação na produção nacional, had its production estimate reduced by 0.5%, as a result of the decrease of 5.3% in the estimated production in Mato Grosso, accounting for 4.6% of the total sorghum produced in the country.

In Goiás, main national producer of sorghum, and in the other states of the Major region, the area, output and yield estimates remained unchanged. In the Southeast, responsible for 35.9% of output, there were increases of 2.7% in output and of 4.0% in average yield.

In Minas Gerais, second main producer, with a participation of 27.7% in the national total, output is expected to reach 79.,0 thousand tonnes, with a decrease of 3.5% against the previous month. The average yield of sorghum in Minas fell 5.2%. The production estimate rose 19.2% in relation to the previous year, mainly due to the increase of 9.7% in the average yield. The area to be harvested increased 8.7%, and plantes area, by 7.6%.

In Goiás, the output estimate (1.3 million tonnes) increased 13.7% from 2021. In Minas Gerais and in São Paulo, output is expected to increase 40.7% and 32.8%. These three Federation Units are expected to account for 79.6% of the national production in 2022.