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In April, IBGE forecasts harvest of 261.5 million tonnes for 2022

May 12, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: May 12, 2022 04h31 PM

In April, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2022 should add up to a record of 261.5 million tonnes, 3.3% above (8.3 million tonnes) that obtained in 2021 (253.2 million tonnes) and 1.0% above the previous information (2.5 million tonnes).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) also unveiled that the area to be harvested was 71.9 million hectares, 4.9% larger (3.4 million hectares) than the area harvested in 2021 and 0.2% larger (155.3 thousand hectares) that that expected in the previous month.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which, altogether, represented 92.2% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.8% of the area to be harvested. Against 2021, there were increases of 8.1% in the area for corn production (7.2% in the first crop and 8.4% in the second one), of 10.4% in the area for upland cotton and 4.2% in the area for soybeans.

On the other hand, the area for rice declined 2.0% and that for wheat, 2.9%.

In the output forecast, a rise of 11.6% for upland cottonseed was registered, reaching 6.5 million tonnes, as well as of 1.4% for wheat (7.9 million) and of 27.5% for corn (111.9 million). A drop of 1.4% in corn - 1st crop was expected (25.3 million), as well as a rise of 39.4% in corn - 2nd crop (86.6 million). A drop of 12.2% was forecast for soybeans (118.5 million), as well as of 8.5% for paddy rice (10.6 million).

APRIL estimate for 2022 261.5 million tonnes
APRIL 2022/ MARCH 2022 change (1.0%) 2.5 million tonnes
2022 harvest / 2021 harvest change (3.3%) 8.3 million tonnes

The March´s report for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2022 reached 258.9 million tonnes and a harvested area of 71.8 million hectares. The area to be harvested rose 4.7% (3.2 million hectares) in relation to 2021. Against the estimate in the previous month, there was an increase of 555.6 thousand hectares (0.8%).

 Central-West (11.7%), Southeast (11.4%), North (5.2%) and Northeast (9.9%), with a drop in the South (-14.5%).  Central-West (0.8%), South (1.0%), Southeast (1.7%), Northeast (0.8%) and North (1.5%).

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso remained as the biggest national producer of grains, with a share of 30.5%, followed by Paraná (13.9%), Goiás (10.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (9.0%). The major rises in the production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Goiás (1,056,997 tonnes), Paraná (624,917 t), Minas Gerais (271,642 t), São Paulo (191,668 t), Ceará (140,094 t), Rondônia (104,584 t), Pará (9,.289 t), Piauí (47,176 t),  Bahia (30,800 t), Maranhão (7,565 t), Rio Grande do Norte (1,261 t), and Rio de Janeiro (18 t).

The major negative changes occurred in Alagoas (-15,050 t), Paraíba (-3,962 t), Amapá (-1,100 t), Acre (-580 t), and Espírito Santo (-29 t).

Highlights in the April 2022 estimate in relation to the previous month

The production estimates of potatoes - 3rd crop (20.4% or 163 344 t), beans- 3rd crop (16.5% or 98 215 t), potatoes - 2nd crop (9.0% or 102 083 t), sorghum (4.0% or 112 407 t), corn - 1st crop (2.7% or 654 257 t), soybeans (2.0% or 2 337 581 t), tomatoes (1.5% or 53 373 t), beans - 2nd crop (1.3% or 17 134 t), grapes (1.2% or 17 070 t), coffea canephora (1.0% or 9 978 t) increased, whereas beans - 1st crop (-7.5% or -90 328 t), coffea arabica (-3.5% or -81 289 t), potatoes - 1st crop (-3.2% or -55 526 t), oranges (-1.5% or -251 435 t) and corn - 2nd crop (-0.7% or -643 820 t) dropped over March.

POTATOES - The fourth estimate of potato production, considering the three crops of the product, was 3.9 million tonnes, an increase of 5.7% in relation to the month of March.  In relation to 2021, the estimate of the national output of potatoes retracted 5.5%, with declines of 4.1% in the area to be harvested and of 1.5% in the average yield.

The first crop, which should contribute with 43.7% of the total amount of potatoes in the year, negatively changed 3.2% over the previous month. The output was estimated at 1.7 million tonnes. The second crop, which represented 31.6% of the total production, was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, 9.0% above the March estimate.

The production estimate of the third crop was 962.7 thousand tonnes, a growth of 20.4% in relation to the previous month.

COFFEE BEAN - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee was of 3.3 million tonnes, or 54.9 million 60-kg sacks, with a decrease of  2.1% against the previous month and a growth of 12.0% over 2021. The average yield of 1,795 kg/ha, in turn, increased 11.7% in the year.

The estimated production of coffea arabica was of 2.2 million tonnes or 37.4 million 60-kg sacks, a decline of 3.5% against the previous month, and a growth of 16.7% in relation to the previous year. In 2022, the harvest of coffea arabica will be of positive biennial bearings, which should result in a significant increase in the output, though the dry and extremely cold weather in the winter of 2021 can reduce the potential output.

Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was of 1.1 million tonnes or 17.5 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 1.0% in relation to the previous month and of 3.3% in relation to 2021.

BEAN SEED - The estimated output of beans, considering the three crops was of 3.2 million tonnes.  This estimate was 0.8% higher than that in the previous month. In this review, the Federation Units with the biggest participation in the production estimate were Paraná (25.1%), Minas Gerais (16.3%), Goiás (9.9%) and Mato Grosso (9.3%). The production estimate increased 14.8% in relation to 2021.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a retreat of 7.5% over the March estimate. The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, an increase of 1.3% over the March estimate.

For the third crop of beans, the production estimate was of 692.0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 16.5% over the March forecast..

ORANGE - The estimated production was of 16.3 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.5% against the previous month, recording, however, a growth of 2.0% against 2021.

In relation to 2021, the estimates were of a rise of 2.0% in the output, of 5.0% in the harvested area and a reduction of 2.8% in the average yield. Despite the growth, orange groves faced many climate problems over the last two years, which caused the production to drop. A long drought and frosts reduced the output, inhibited the growth of oranges and contributed to increase the early drop of fruits, reducing the amount of oranges to be harvested. Additionally, the size of the fruits and the low quality of the juice also contributed to decrease the industrial yield.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate of corn hit 111.9 million tonnes, representing an increase of 27.5% in relation to 2021. After a significant drop in the production in 2021, caused by a late planting and lack of rainfall in the major producing Federation Units, a regular year was expected, especially during the second crop, which is the major one and should account for 77.4% of the Brazilian output. The national production of corn should reach a new record.

For corn - 1st crop, the estimated output was 25.3 million tonnes, an increase of 2.7% in relation to the previous month and a decline of 1.4% in relation to the 2021 harvest, despite the increase of 7.2% in the area to be harvested in the annual comparison. The average yield recorded a reduction of 7.9%. Although rainfall came earlier in most parts of the country, causing the agricultural year to start on time, the lack of rainfall in the South Region since the second half of the crop cycle significantly broke down the potential production of the harvest.

For corn - 2nd crop, the estimated output hit 86.6 million tonnes, a decline of 0.7% in relation to the previous month and an increase of 39.4% in relation to the 2021, with a growth of 6.4% in the planted area and of 8.4% in the area to be harvested.

SOYBEANS (grain) - Having virtually finished the harvest in the major producing states, the estimate of the national output of soybeans in April registered an increase of 2.0% in the volume of grains. In a harvest marked by adverse climate effects, with a strong drought during the development of the crop in the states of the center-south of Brazil, the national production should hit 118.5 million tonnes, which represented a retraction of 12.2% compared with that obtained in the previous year.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated production was of 2.9 million tonnes, a rise of 4.0% over the previous month. Accounting for 51.9% of the national output, the Central-West Region, the biggest producer of this grain, increased its estimate by 3.8% led by Goiás, the biggest producer and responsible for 43.1% of the national overall. In this survey, there was an increase of 4.5% in the output estimate against March.

The production estimate rose 20.7% in relation to the previous year, mainly due to the advance of 11.6% in the average yield. The area to be harvested increased 8.2%.

TOMATOES - The estimated output of tomatoes in 2022 was of 3.6 million tonnes, pointing out to a rise of 1.5% in relation to March. The estimated production was 7.8% smaller against 2021. The excess of rainfall jeopardized the crops, which were infested with plagues, increasing the production costs. The planted area also reduced 5.5% over the previous year, due to less attractive prices, contributing to the reduced supply.

GRAPES - The output estimate was of 1.5 million tonnes, a growth of 1.2% against the previous month and a decrease of 12.2% against 2021. It was due to the climate problems that affected Rio Grande do Sul, the biggest producer in Brazil.